The Shoutbox
Dissapointing.
I like suprises.
The last true big surprise for Best Picture was Chariots of Fire at the '83 ceremonies. They'll be no such upsets tonight.
No, the Awards are rarely up in the air. There is usually a clear favorite, or at worst a two-horse race. The only few surprises from year to year come on the supporting acting categories, which can go a little unorthadox (witness Marcia Gay Harden last year - and good for her BTW).

Otherwise, there's a major surprise once every thirty years or so. And there ain't any coming this year.

Oh, well.
Yeah, I know all that.
I was just wondering if you'd read about them or something.

Meanwhile, are you one of those people are are saying the Awards are "up-in-the-air" this year? And if not, why not?
I'm not sure about anything.

Like 99% of the people, I haven't seen any of the documentaries this year, and only a couple of the short subjects. That's pure guesswork. The regular Academy voting body doesn't even get to put those on their ballots. Documentaries and short subjects are decided by special voting bodies or those few Academy members who actually show up to all the assigned screenings.
Yeah, but you never like anything Holden But that's what we love about you. Do you run that Cranky Critic website
And you're all set.
All the tips are in the pool.

Just a question, are you sure about all the Doco features and stuff, or are they just educated guesses?
I must have missed it when copying my list from one of the other sites where it was already posted.

Andrew Lesnie, for The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, is my pick for film photography this year.
Also, you haven't chosen a Best Cinematography pick in your tips, Hold's.
I think they'll keep the telecast within 12 minutes this year. I don't forsee this being a big overage year.

And personally I don't think Total Recall is a "good" Sci-Fi movie either, but again, knock yourself out, man.
I'm a sucker for good sci-fi... when you throw Arnie into the mix I just get hooked