Oscar's Best Picture 2022

I guess I must be the only person who LOVED this movie. I'm also hoping it wins the Original screenplay Oscar.

Rereading my mini-review, I guess it does come across like I didn't care for the film, but I did like it, and my wife did, as well. More things worked for me than didn't, but I wasn't over the moon for it. That said, I found it to be quite entertaining.

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OK. just watched Licorice Pizza and, frankly, don't see what all the fuss is about. I don't see it winning any of the three Oscars it's nominated for.

Wowsers:


Not sure I'd go that far, but I was pretty underwhelmed by it. More detail soon on the podcast.

Yeah, I listened to Marc Maron's WTF last night not knowing that nugget was buried in there. I figured it would make headlines today

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"Film is a disease. When it infects your bloodstream it takes over as the number one hormone. It bosses the enzymes, directs the pineal gland, plays Iago to your psyche. As with heroin, the antidote to Film is more Film." - Frank Capra

I find this take interesting considering how a significant cross-section of the discourse I saw regarding the film involved defenders claiming that professional critics only gave it negative criticism precisely because it apparently painted such an unflattering portrait of The Media (which also dove-tailed with the assumption that anyone criticising Don't Look Up as a film was by extension disagreeing with its whole message about the importance of caring about climate change). In any case, I think there's still an effort to treat Blanchett's character as this sort of vampish seductress who deliberately distracts DiCaprio's character from the seriousness of his mission for a good chunk of the second act, though I suppose that is still a matter of interpretation.

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Iro's Top 100 Movies v3.0

I think it's an imperfect movie, but I'm still pretty okay with Don't Look Up getting best picture noms. In a perfect world, it shouldn't be a top 10 contender, but in this ****ing world, I like the Academy daring to acknowledge something of worth in a movie that has been extremely polarizing, is a lowly comedy, and has annoyed people of every persuasion.



Good on you Don't Look Up.

Is it kid gloves just to make them seem vapid and aloof? Isn't it actually less cutting if it just paints the media as some villainous, scheming monolith? Because to me, correctly isolating that the failure of the media is an outgrowith of the shallowest elements of our personalities is possibly even more damning. And depressing. And frightening. And makes it so much easier for the movie to direct its accusation towards every day working dopes (and pretty much all of us, in one way or another) and not simply 'bad guys'.

I've only seen Licorice Pizza, Dune and Nightmare Alley.


Licorice Pizza > Dune > Nightmare Alley

Yes, I think it does support the kid gloves angle, especially if it was a direct indictment of today's media at large. I may not have a valid assessment of it, and I do tend to avoid most MSM outlets when possible, but I do get exposed to it from time to time. Take that as you will

So, if it was trying to mirror today's media, at least some level of monolithic scheming would be necessary, especially when concerned with using a potentially species level extinction event to further one narrative or another. Whether or not that constitutes true evil or just misguided activism is another discussion, I think. If the comet event was indeed a stand-in for climate change, our actual media has been anything but aloof and vapid when addressing the issue, with both the left and right-leaning media pundits using the climate crisis to drive their partisan ideology and attack the political position of their opponents incessantly. This has had the effect of minimizing the potential dangers of the crisis, turned the issue into a political bargaining chip, and caused millions of people to dig their heels in on an issue they don't fully understand.

Such irresponsible coverage on this issue has had the effect of setting us up for worst-case scenarios both socially and environmentally. I don't think the film went there re: the media.

Anyway - we watched Nightmare Alley last night - Belfast up next for us!

I'm not suggesting that there aren't real moustache twirlers out there, making very cynical and very corrupted editorial decisions in the shadows. And that's its own problem and deserves its own scorn. And also its own movie. But I don't think that is what this movie is about. That isn't what its satire is aimed at.



The easiest comparison, even though McKay isn't remotely any kind of Kubrick, is Strangelove. The target in that movie isn't the failures and the provocations and the existential threat that the Soviet Union presented at that time. These were obviously not irrelevant concerns, but Kubrick (like McKay) was instead parodying the very human weakness which can lead to catastrophe. We can relate to the kind of exasperated miscommunication that happens during the phonecall between the American and Russian president. The buffonery that abounds every where. The incompetence. The jingoism and phony displays of patriotism. The ignorance. The small displays of every day madness that could wipe out the universe. That is what sets the film up for both its humor and its tragedy. What makes it terrifying. And also funny because of how small and petty it all ultimately ends up being.



And, even though he falls way short of Strangelove, I think this what McKay is going for. And why it has crawled up so many people's asses because no one wants to think they aren't doing there part in keeping this world alive. But this movie is asking just how complicit we are in propping up the system that is actively killing us. And how pathetically tragic it all is.

Great post and I agree with pretty much all of it.

Yea, I guess I should have clarified, but I don't necessarily by the alleged allegory for the climate crisis, and was more commenting on a Observation on the content Iro brought up, which I don't think he was saying was his own take on the film, btw.

I also thought of Kubrick as I watched, especially when Ron Perlman's sort of low-rent Ripper was on the screen. You are right: McKay is no Kubrick, that is for sure. Strangelove and MacKay's picture leave you with very different impressions in the end: Kubrick with a feeling of chilling dread coupled with absolute absurdity, and McKay with the feeling that we have just watched some self-important, throwaway popcorn entertainment. The absurdity is there, though, that's for sure.

Again though, I did like the film to a certain extent, and am glad I watched it, even if just to be caught up for the awards chat.

While I enjoyed Don’t Look Up, I don’t think it should have nabbed a BP nod.
Having watched Being The Ricardos, I’m in the minority of thinking it probably should have nabbed it instead.

I’m behind on these nominations, but I aim to hit the BP nominations at the very least starting in May. Have too much other stuff I need to clear up first.

when is the oscars?

Sunday March 27, 2022. Two weeks from yesterday. 8:00pm EST/5:00pm PST.

oh okay thank you

Overwhelmingly the Best Picture winner also has its director at least nominated, and often the two awards are paired. Which makes sense. If they did the "best" job directing, the resulting movie must be pretty good too, yes? And vice versa. Now that Jane Campion has won the Directors Guild of America Award she has more than solidified her place as the front runner for Best Director. As I detailed HERE, since 1950 the DGA winner has won the Oscar 93% of the time. So assuming Campion wins the Oscar the next question is will there be a Picture/Director split?

Since 1967 there have been only thirteen Picture/Director splits in those fifty-three Oscars. BUT nine of them have happened since 1998 and five in the past decade: Argo/Ang Lee (Life of Pi), 12 Years a Slave/Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity), Spotlight/Alejandro Gonzales Iñárritu (The Revenant), Moonlight/Damien Chazelle (La La Land), Green Book/Alfonso Cuaron (Roma). It is certainly becoming more common. If that is a result of the weighted balloting or the expanded number of Best Picture nominees or a demystification of the auteur theory, who knows? But the trend is there.

In addition to Campion’s near-lock on Best Director The Power of the Dog also has four acting nominations, which is a rare feat in this era. The last three films to accomplish that were David O. Russell’s American Hustle, which lost Best Picture to 12 Years a Slave, Russell’s Silver Linings Playbook which lost to Argo, and Rob Marshall’s Chicago, which did win Best Picture. The Power of the Dog is the most-nominated film of the year with a dozen. Sometimes that means something, other years it doesn’t mean much. The Shape of Water led the field with thirteen nominations when it won, while last year’s Nomadland only had six nominations while Mank had the most with ten.


With all of that going for it if The Power of the Dog doesn’t win Best Picture…what will?




If Kenneth Branagh’s autobiographical Balfast were to win it would be the first Irish film to be named Oscar’s Best Picture. My Left Foot and In the Name of the Father were the previous two to be nominated, back when there were only five nominees per year. Of course there have been plenty of English winners over the years including The King’s Speech, Slumdog Millionaire, Shakespeare in Love, Gandhi, Chariots of Fire, Oliver!, Tom Jones, and Olivier’s Hamlet. But none for the Emerald Isle. Branagh’s film shares similarities with former Picture nominees in John Boorman’s Hope & Glory and Alfonso Cuarón’s Roma, though neither of them won either, losing to The Last Emperor and Green Book, respectively. I like Belfast a lot but I don’t expect it will win that big award at the end of the night.




The original West Side Story won ten of its eleven nominations at the 1962 ceremony, including Best Picture. Spielberg’s high-profile remake of West Side Story has managed seven nominations. This makes the twelfth Steven Spielberg film nominated for Best Picture: Jaws, Raiders of the Lost Ark, E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial, The Color Purple, Schindler’s List, Saving Private Ryan, Munich, War Horse, Lincoln, Bridge of Spies, The Post, West Side Story. Of course the only one of the previous eleven to win was Schindler’s List. Ten Musicals have won, including the original WSS, six of them in the 1950s and ‘60s: Chicago (2002), Oliver! (1968), The Sound of Music (1965), My Fair Lady (1964), West Side Story (1961), Gigi (1958), An American in Paris (1951), Going My Way (1944), The Great Ziegfeld (1936), Broadway Melody (1929). If West Side Story were to win it would make only the second remake to win, joining Scorsese’s The Departed, and of course would be the first re-make of a Best Picture winner.




Licorice Pizza is the third Paul Thomas Anderson film nominated for Best Picture, joining There Will Be Blood, which lost to No Country for Old Men, and Phantom Thread which lost to The Shape of Water. I think Branagh’s semi-autobigraphical look back at his childhood has a better chance of winning than P.T.A.’s…and Branagh doesn’t have much of a chance.




For those who rightly call out the Academy Awards as historically being almost exclusively centered around English-speaking cinema for its biggest awards this stat underlines that rather bluntly: Ryûsuke Hamaguchi’s Drive My Car is the first Japanese film ever nominated for Best Picture. Can’t do anything about the past but this may be encouraging for the future of the Academy Awards. Two years ago South Korea’s Parasite was famously the first foreign language winner for Best Picture. I don’t expect Drive My Car will be the second, but I do hope its inclusion for Best Picture and Best Director is part of a continuing trend and not outliers to the same old norm going forward.


And then there is the rest of the field, the five nominees that did not have corresponding Best Director nods: CODA, Dune, King Richard, Nightmare Alley, and Don’ Look Up. This year is the 94th Academy Awards. Only five times total in those previous ninety-three years has a Picture won without a Director nomination. Two of those, Wings and Grand Hotel, came in the first few years before all of the category formats stabilized. Which means since the early 1930s there have only been THREE instances: Driving Miss Daisy, Argo, and Green Book. Though as you can see, two of the three came in the last nine years.

I don’t think King Richard, Don’t Look Up, Dune, or Nightmare Alley have any kind of a shot. At all. But if there is a mighty sleeper pick out there to be made it may well be CODA. More than actor Sam Elliott’s recent diatribe against The Power of the Dog, it has been getting a lot of pushback since the awards season began and it became the supposed front runner. Many critics and audiences alike have wondered why this movie, why now? For all if its obvious artistry one can’t call it much of an uplifting crowd pleaser. Not that being “happy” or pleasant is a prerequisite for winning Best Picture. Last year’s Nomadland couldn’t be called that. But if the Oscar voters this year ultimately want something that is more emotionally gratifying I think the natural choice is CODA. It is formulaic in many ways but also incredibly well done and triumphant. While the original is not very widely known, CODA is also a remake and thus would join The Departed as the only winners.

If CODA does manage to win Best Picture it would be one of the biggest upsets ever as it will be swimming upstream against all sorts of Oscar history. It would be the first film since the 1930s to win with fewer than five total nominations – it has only three: Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Adapted Screenplay. It would be the first film since Ordinary People (1980) to win without a single nomination in the technical categories. It would be the first since Driving Miss Daisy (1989) to win without its director getting a DGA Award nomination. But it could happen. And this movie fan hopes it does.




The Producers Guild of America (PGA) Awards are next weekend and may give a bigger clue as to where the Academy vote is going.

Smith was fantastic in King Richard but the film definitely does not deserve a Best Picture nomination.

Really don't get all the fuss over Licorice Pizza, but that's just me I guess.

Thrilled to learn that I'm not the only one who wasn't impressed with Licorice Pizza