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Boy, it's way less fun writing this sort of stuff when you're afflicted by Pete's Gypsy Curse, lemme tell ya'. But it's a bit of a tradition, so as always, here's a rundown of the playoff scenarios heading into the final week of the season. I don't think it's quite as crazy as it's been the last couple of years, but there's still a lot of angles to consider. So here we go:
First off, a reminder of the structrue: 6 teams make the playoffs, and the top 2 teams get a bye.
Second: 3 teams have already clinched spots; Sookie's Suckers (LT), Beantown Champs (Pete), and Dillon Panthers (TONGO). That leaves 3 more spots, with 6 teams being technically capable of getting in. Let's break that down real quick:
Remaining Playoff Spots
So who gets the last one? Could be any one of those last four teams, none of which are playing any of the others. Technically, both 5-7 teams could still get in. It's unlikely, but not insane, as it would be if Jay or Adam got outscored by 100 or more. Either 5-7 team could get in only if both 6-6 teams lose and they score enough points to win the tiebreaker against both. Sedai's Replicants trail the Stallyns about 33, and leads Team Zissou by 9. PW's LAW (an acronym for Liquor And Whores I just made up) trail the Stallyns by 60 and Team Zissou by 18. 60 is about the margin at which the lowest scoring team in a given week is outscored by the highest, regardless of matchup, so Mike has a marginally tough road, and Chris an even tougher one. But both are plausible; particularly Mike's path.
The two 6-6 teams in the middle there are where most of the drama figures to occur. They can each finish as high as 4th or as low as 9th. If they both win, only one makes the playoffs, and odds are it'd be Sleezy's Stallyns, who hold a 42-point tiebreaker edge. The most likely, and also cleanest, scenario, is simply: Sleezy wins, and he's the last playoff team, because even if Fiscal wins too, he's probably not outscoring him by 42.
If Sleezy loses, his path to the playoffs is still fairly robust. For example, if Fiscal loses, but doesn't outscore him by 42, Sleezy's in anyway. If Fiscal loses and Mike wins, but Mike doesn't outscore Sleezy by 33, Sleezy's in anyway. Same deal with Fiscal losing and PW winning, but to the tune of 60 points. He's got a lot of ways to do this. Basically, Sleezy doesn't have to worry about winning so much as putting up a decent point total. If he puts up a strong number, he probably gets in unless someone else's team explodes.
There are two other plausible scenarios, though:
And it's worth noting, of course, that Sleezy's projected point total is the highest of all the bubble teams, anyway, though he does have a tough matchup against Adam.
The Byes
No Byes have been clinched; any of the top 5 teams could get one. The permutations here are probably a bit too complicated to get into, so I'll say this: Sookie gets one of the Byes if she wins. If she does, either of the two teams below her could take one, or both. TONGO probably wouldn't, because he's down 91 points. Pete probably would, because he's up 60. But TONGO could still get one (and this the only plausible way he can) if he wins and Pete loses.
Both 7-5 teams, Jay and Adam, could still get a Bye, too. Jay stands the best chance if he wins, because he's the top scoring team in the league, and he's 47 points ahead of the next-closest team (Pete). So if Jay wins and both of the 8-4 teams lose, he's almost certainly going to snag a Bye.
Records In Play?
Yup. Since we moved to full PPR and 13 regular season games (we were half-PPR and played 14 in the league's first season), the highest score of all time was 1693.28 points (a 130.25 average), by PW's Odd Squad in 2010. That's almost certainly going to be broken; Jay needs just 75 points to make it happen, and Pete needs just 122 to reach the same mark. Adam has an outside shot at it, needing 143, but even if he gets it the odds are solid both Jay and Pete will have established a new mark, anyway.
On the other end, four teams (including myself) are on pace to break the old mark for most Points Against, the other three being Dusty, Dex, and PW. Ouch. We've all been met with an average of 125 points a week on the other side of our matchups. So, it seems likely that both marks fall.
No infamous records for lowest points scored or worst record are in play, though Sookie has the chance to tie the mark for best record under this format at 10-3. Two other teams have done that; her, in 2010, and me, in 2011. The overall mark is 11-3, but that was in 2008's 14-game season.
And that's that. Congrats to all the playoff teams, and good luck to the rest. Odds are good we already more or less know who's in, but there's lots of plausible ways for that last spot to change. Most of the real drama is around the Byes, though, and how high some of these points records might go.
First off, a reminder of the structrue: 6 teams make the playoffs, and the top 2 teams get a bye.
Second: 3 teams have already clinched spots; Sookie's Suckers (LT), Beantown Champs (Pete), and Dillon Panthers (TONGO). That leaves 3 more spots, with 6 teams being technically capable of getting in. Let's break that down real quick:
Remaining Playoff Spots
- Big Damn Heroes (7-5)
- RG3scompany (7-5)
- Wyld Stallyns (6-6)
- Team Zissou (6-6)
- The Replicants (5-7)
- Liquor And Whores (5-7)
So who gets the last one? Could be any one of those last four teams, none of which are playing any of the others. Technically, both 5-7 teams could still get in. It's unlikely, but not insane, as it would be if Jay or Adam got outscored by 100 or more. Either 5-7 team could get in only if both 6-6 teams lose and they score enough points to win the tiebreaker against both. Sedai's Replicants trail the Stallyns about 33, and leads Team Zissou by 9. PW's LAW (an acronym for Liquor And Whores I just made up) trail the Stallyns by 60 and Team Zissou by 18. 60 is about the margin at which the lowest scoring team in a given week is outscored by the highest, regardless of matchup, so Mike has a marginally tough road, and Chris an even tougher one. But both are plausible; particularly Mike's path.
The two 6-6 teams in the middle there are where most of the drama figures to occur. They can each finish as high as 4th or as low as 9th. If they both win, only one makes the playoffs, and odds are it'd be Sleezy's Stallyns, who hold a 42-point tiebreaker edge. The most likely, and also cleanest, scenario, is simply: Sleezy wins, and he's the last playoff team, because even if Fiscal wins too, he's probably not outscoring him by 42.
If Sleezy loses, his path to the playoffs is still fairly robust. For example, if Fiscal loses, but doesn't outscore him by 42, Sleezy's in anyway. If Fiscal loses and Mike wins, but Mike doesn't outscore Sleezy by 33, Sleezy's in anyway. Same deal with Fiscal losing and PW winning, but to the tune of 60 points. He's got a lot of ways to do this. Basically, Sleezy doesn't have to worry about winning so much as putting up a decent point total. If he puts up a strong number, he probably gets in unless someone else's team explodes.
There are two other plausible scenarios, though:
1. Sleezy loses, but Fiscal wins. Fiscal gets the last playoff spot.So those are the options, in order of likelihood: first, that Sleezy wins, or loses but not by enough to miss out, and gets the last spot. Second, that Sleezy loses and Fiscal wins, so Fiscal gets the last spot. And third, that both Sleezy and Fiscal lose and Mike manages to outscore Sleezy by about 33.
2. Sleezy AND Fiscal lose, and one or both of Mike and PW win, forcing a crazy four-team pileup at 6-7 with the highest scoring team coming out on top.
And it's worth noting, of course, that Sleezy's projected point total is the highest of all the bubble teams, anyway, though he does have a tough matchup against Adam.
The Byes
No Byes have been clinched; any of the top 5 teams could get one. The permutations here are probably a bit too complicated to get into, so I'll say this: Sookie gets one of the Byes if she wins. If she does, either of the two teams below her could take one, or both. TONGO probably wouldn't, because he's down 91 points. Pete probably would, because he's up 60. But TONGO could still get one (and this the only plausible way he can) if he wins and Pete loses.
Both 7-5 teams, Jay and Adam, could still get a Bye, too. Jay stands the best chance if he wins, because he's the top scoring team in the league, and he's 47 points ahead of the next-closest team (Pete). So if Jay wins and both of the 8-4 teams lose, he's almost certainly going to snag a Bye.
Records In Play?
Yup. Since we moved to full PPR and 13 regular season games (we were half-PPR and played 14 in the league's first season), the highest score of all time was 1693.28 points (a 130.25 average), by PW's Odd Squad in 2010. That's almost certainly going to be broken; Jay needs just 75 points to make it happen, and Pete needs just 122 to reach the same mark. Adam has an outside shot at it, needing 143, but even if he gets it the odds are solid both Jay and Pete will have established a new mark, anyway.
On the other end, four teams (including myself) are on pace to break the old mark for most Points Against, the other three being Dusty, Dex, and PW. Ouch. We've all been met with an average of 125 points a week on the other side of our matchups. So, it seems likely that both marks fall.
No infamous records for lowest points scored or worst record are in play, though Sookie has the chance to tie the mark for best record under this format at 10-3. Two other teams have done that; her, in 2010, and me, in 2011. The overall mark is 11-3, but that was in 2008's 14-game season.
And that's that. Congrats to all the playoff teams, and good luck to the rest. Odds are good we already more or less know who's in, but there's lots of plausible ways for that last spot to change. Most of the real drama is around the Byes, though, and how high some of these points records might go.
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I AM GOING TO GET MY ASS KICKED!
