syj, whats the word on the Giants this coming season? Is San Francisco hopeful? Is Tim Lincecum over the hill? Dont get any west coast hubbub over here in florida.
From what I've seen, the Dodgers are the favorites in the division. Vegas has them at 90 wins or so, which I think is tied for the highest with the Tigers and the Nationals. So expectations are high for them, and it's mostly warranted. You look at a rotation of Kershaw/Greinke/Beckett/Ryu/Capuano (or whoever), and that's really strong. Bullpen is solid, and the lineup has Hanley/Kemp/Gonzalez/Ethier. There are some potential weak spots at 3B, 2B, and possibly LF, but all teams have question marks. The Giants fan in me sees that Ethier can't hit lefties, Gonzalez is walking less and seems to be in a decline phase, Ryu is an unknown, Kemp has injury concerns, etc. But they're clearly a strong team, and it's more fun anyway when the Dodgers are good and the Giants still beat them
The Diamondbacks are confusing. They're still a good team, but they managed to turn Justin Upton, Chris Young, and Trevor Bauer into Martin Prado, a couple of uninspiring shortstops, and some bullpen/back of the rotation arms. I personally think that teams need at least one superstar to be able to go deep in the playoffs, and the Dbacks just got rid of their only player with that kind of upside (Upton). Goldschmidt is good but not great, Aaron Hill is a quality 2B, Prado is useful, and the pitching is deep, but there's no superstar there. The Dbacks will probably challenge for a wildcard, but I don't see them winning the division.
The mood around the Giants is interesting. Lincecum is the biggest question mark, and most Giants fans have accepted that Cy Young Lincecum is never going to come back, but there's also a general sense that he is going to be better than last year. He said that he worked out a lot and fixed his mechanics, but the fastball velocity is still low and who knows if he can regain his control. I'm thinking an okay season, with an ERA in the mid-high 3's, with flashes of his old brilliance, but never quite getting there consistently. It's a shame, because he's just so awesome to watch when he's on. The offense should be good, like last year (which is weird to say after the years of great pitching and no offense). I doubt Posey puts up those kind of numbers again, but there's a decent core there with Sandoval, Belt, and Pagan, and the defense is very good too. I'm a little worried about all of the innings that the pitchers have thrown in the last couple of years. Mostly Bumgarner worries me (non-Lincecum/Zito division), because he's young and has all of those innings, but Cain is about as dependable as they come.
Overall (sorry this got so long!), I see the Giants at around 90 wins and competitive, so it comes down to whether the Dodgers put all the talent together and cruise to close to 100 wins, or having players like Crawford and Beckett fail to bounce back, have the holes in the lineup exposed, and struggle in the mid-80s.
Also: the Padres are pretty good and getting better, and I could see them finish close to .500 this year. The Rockies are not good.