Oscar's Best Picture 2020


Which willbe Oscar's next Best Picture?
2 votes
Ford v Ferrari
3 votes
The Irishman
1 votes
Jojo Rabbit
5 votes
1 votes
Little Women
1 votes
Marriage Story
16 votes
6 votes
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
8 votes
43 votes. You may not vote on this poll

I finally watched Parasite. Highly overrated. The movie had a solid first half, or even two-thirds, but then it got weird and messy. The ending left me unsatisfied and disappointed.

I don't see it winning Best Picture at all. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood or 1917 for sure.
Interesting, Parasite was easily my favorite of the year. I liked the messiness and twists at the end.

To date there have been eleven Best Picture winners that had no acting nominations, three of which came way back in the initial years of the Academy Awards, four in the 1950s, and two in the 21st century: Wings (1927), All Quiet on the Western Front (1930), Grand Hotel (1932), An American in Paris (1951), The Greatest Show on Earth (1952), Around the World in 80 Days (1956), Gigi (1958), The Last Emperor (1987), Braveheart (1995), The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2003), and Slumdog Millionaire (2008).

Not common, but it happens. 1917 may well join that list.

There have been seven Best Picture winners that didn't get a screenplay nod. Again, a bunch were at the inception of the awards before the categories and number of nominees standardized but none since the 1998 ceremony: Wings (1927), The Broadway Melody (1928), Grand Hotel (1932), Cavalcade (1933), Hamlet (1948), The Sound of Music (1965), and Titanic (1997).

And then there's the ten that won Best Picture without winning either Best Director or for their screenplays: Wings (1927), The Broadway Melody (1928), Grand Hotel (1932), Mutiny on the Bounty (1935), The Great Ziegfeld (1936), Rebecca (1940), Hamlet (1948), All the King's Men (1949), Gladiator (2000), and Chicago (2002).

"Film is a disease. When it infects your bloodstream it takes over as the number one hormone. It bosses the enzymes, directs the pineal gland, plays Iago to your psyche. As with heroin, the antidote to Film is more Film." - Frank Capra

1917 had hype for it long before it even came out. I’ve tried to watch it once already and it completely sold out. I haven’t had that happened to me in a very long time. Not with Star Wats films, nor and of the Marvel films. Even on opening weekends.
Every word of mouth so far has been about how great it is. If it does win Best Picture, it’ll be because it deserves it.

I had the the darn luck of watching it sitting beside an over-enthusiastic guy. Cheering every scene and saying "Wow... Man .. Holy cow" and all that at every twist and turn. But it didn't ruin the experience for me at least.
My Favorite Films

I finally watched Parasite. Highly overrated. The movie had a solid first half, or even two-thirds, but then it got weird and messy. The ending left me unsatisfied and disappointed.

I don't see it winning Best Picture at all. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood or 1917 for sure.

But the ending is where the subtlety lies. The class system is still maintained, the guy trying to keep someone in is now locked in the same place and a few other mellifluous tid-bits.

Update: Watched Jojo Rabbit and loved it!
1. Parasite
2. Marriage Story
3. Irishman
4. Little Women
5. Jojo Rabbit
7. Joker
I loved JoJo Rabbbit too.

A system of cells interlinked
Got a few more 2019 pictures in this weekend, one of which was up for Best Picture.

Parasite was excellent, and goes right up at or near the top of my list for the year. That said, I still haven't seen 1917, Little Women, Ford V Ferrari, or Marriage Story. With the difficulty of getting to the theater these days due to the wee lass being around, I would think I will only be able to see Marriage Story before the awards hit. I guess I might like that more than Parasite, but I doubt it! I liked the new Scorsese picture, as well as the new Tarantino flick, but I think Parasite was bit fresher, so I was a bit more entertained.
"There’s absolutely no doubt you can be slightly better tomorrow than you are today." - JBP

I've seen all of the nominees.

I would rank them based on how much I enjoyed them the following way:

1. Joker

2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

3. 1917

4. The Irishman

5. Jojo Rabbit

6. Ford V Ferrari

7. Parasite

8. Marriage Story

9. Little Women

It would be cool if Joker is awarded Best Picture, but that's very unlikely.

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood deserves it, but I believe 1917 will take it.
“Let me tell you something you already know. The world ain't all sunshine and rainbows. It's a very mean and nasty place and I don't care how tough you are, it will beat you to your knees and keep you there permanently if you let it. You, me, or nobody is gonna hit as hard as life. But it ain't about how hard ya hit. It's about how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward. How much you can take and keep moving forward. That's how winning is done!” ~ Rocky Balboa

Interesting, Parasite was easily my favorite of the year. I liked the messiness and twists at the end.
I don't mind messiness and twists, but the way the film unraveled in the final act just didn't click with me. It didn't satisfy me as a viewer.

I get the message of the movie. A commentary on social status, which was on point.

If I were to score the film based on the first two thirds of it, I would have given it a little less than 5 stars. It was solid. But the way the film ended, it got a much lesser score from me: 3 stars. Good film overall, but fell short.

First you can generally eliminate the Best Picture nominees that don't have a corresponding Best Director nomination. Winning without the director even being nominated is exceedingly rare. That means Ford v Ferrari, Jojo Rabbit, Little Women, and Marriage Story have very remote chances of winning. But remote is not impossible and it HAS happened. Five times. In ninety-one years. A 6% chance, historically. Two of those happened during the first few years of the awards (Wings and Grand Hotel), before the categories had standardized. So really were talking about only three times in the modern history of the Oscars. BUT...two of them were in this decade. 1989's Driving Miss Daisy is the first, 2012's Argo the second, and last year's Green Book was the third. So clearly it can happen.

But those three films also won other prestigious awards leading up to the Academy Awards. Driving Miss Daisy had won the PGA Award and the Golden Globe for Comedy, Argo had won the PGA and the Golden Globe for Drama while Affleck was Best Director at the Globes and the DGA, Green Book had won the PGA, the Globe for Comedy, and at least Farrelly was nominated by the DGA. So their Best Picture wins weren't complete shocks, just frickin' weird and rare that their director's didn't manage Oscar nominations.

For the record Marriage Story, Ford v Ferrari, Little Women nor Jojo Rabbit won the PGA nor Golden Globe awards. Meaning they would forge totally new ground if they were to win. Possible, obviously, as they are on the ballot. But beyond unlikely. It would be my favorite Oscar win of all time if Jojo Rabbit were to be named Best Picture, but as much as I want it to happen it ain't gonna.

Fans of Joker really, really want it to win, too. The same way (and probably some of the same fans) who really, really wanted Mad Max: Fury Road to win. And they want it so much they have convinced themselves it is going to happen. It isn't. I mean if you want to cling to some glimmer of hope until Oscar night go ahead, but it isn't going to happen. That it won Venice and got some rave reviews and the most Oscar nominations is all fine and good, but Best Picture is a different kettle of fish. Speaking of fish The Shape of Water did win a couple years ago, but remember its darkness and slimy weirdness were undercut by an old fashioned fairy tale love story. Joker...is not.

The Irishman is the ninth Best Picture nominee helmed by Martin Scorsese: Taxi Driver, Raging Bull, GoodFellas, Gangs of New York, The Aviator, The Departed, Hugo, The Wolf of Wall Street, and The Irishman. The Departed is the only one to win and that won't change this year. The slow paced gangster epic is a welcome return for the master of the genre, but in addition to its buzz cresting too soon (all the way back in November...ages ago, in awards season terms) it was financed by Netflix, meaning this one won't win. At some point Netflix or Amazon or another streaming service is going to produce something they just can't ignore, but until then the business is going to favor productions that come from more traditional studios.

If The Irishman were to get Best Picture, even at 210 minutes it would not be the longest winner. It would be fourth behind Gone with the Wind (238 minutes), Lawrence of Arabia (228 minutes), and Ben-Hur (212 minutes) and just ahead of The Godfather Part II (202 minutes) and The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (200 minutes).

I hope Marty lives to be a hundred (he is seventy-seven) and makes at least ten more movies.

Parasite is the twelfth foreign language film nominated for Best Picture. Renoir's Grand Illusion was the first, Haneke's Amour, and Cuarón's Roma were the most recent. None has ever won. Is this the year it's going to happen? You figure it's gotta happen SOMEDAY, right? But will it be this dark, subversive, funny, weird flick with that ending? I doubt it.

That the last two Oscars had foreign language titles that are legitimately in the conversation as possible winners is a step in the right direction. The Academy Awards are never going to look like The Cannes Film Festival, nor should they. But having more of a truly international flavor is a good thing.

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood may be Tarantino's most accessible movie in some ways, especially to more conservative Oscar voters. Not that it doesn't have a few moments of ultra violence, but compared to the all out carnage of Kill Bill, Django Unchained, Inglourious Basterds, or even Pulp Fiction it is relatively calm. It is told linearly. It stars two of the most attractive movie stars of their era. It is lovingly set in a Hollywood of yesteryear. It respectfully portrays several real life industry figures including Sharon Tate. But even given all of that, at the end of the day is it still simply too Tarantino-y to sway enough of the voters?

1917 is old fashioned and familiar in some respects. It hits just about every major combat movie trope there is. From All Quiet on the Western Front and Paths of Glory to Platoon and Saving Private Ryan and a dozen others, most of the incident in this World War I tale of two soldiers trying to deliver a message up to the front lines has been seen before. But it hasn't been done quite this way before, simulating real time and one continuous shot. Sam Mendes and company have designed and made this all exceedingly well. Not a unique narrative but it is a unique cinematic experience.

1917 has already won the PGA Award and it won the Golden Globe for Best Drama. The last time a movie won both of those awards but lost Best Picture was Brokeback Mountain, which lost the Oscar to Crash. So it isn't unprescedented. But Brokeback was a boundary pushing film, it would have been the first Best Picture overtly about a homosexual relationship (which wouldn't happen until Moonlight three years ago). So they went for the safe choice instead. But 1917 is already the safe choice. What kind of buyer's remorse would shift over to Parasite or even Once Upon a Time in Hollywood this late in the game?

This is in the bag for 1917. No gasp-inducing waves of oh my goodness when the envelope is opened (assuming they hand them the correct envelope).

Yeah. It would be debacle if it didn't win. It or Parasite either one are good. Although logically parasite would take the foreign film award and 1917 the main one.


This one popped up in my Firefox suggestions!