Early Awards Predictions

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Since last visiting this thread, I have seen Joker, Marriage Story, and Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood. I'm willing to go out on a limb and say that Joaquin Phoenix will win anything he gets nominated for, including winning his first Oscar. Adam Driver was wonderful in Marriage Story but he doesn't stand a chance against Phoenix. I'm a lit4tle surprised there's no mention of Renee Zellweger in Judy, which I saw yesterday. She is easily my forerunner for Best Actress. The movie is not getting great reviews but Zellweger is brilliant. I don't see it happening in a million years, but I would love to see Taron Egerton win for Rocketman

There’s barely any actual marketing for Zellweger to get a nomination and that’s sad.
I wouldn’t have even known of it had she not gotten any nominations at all.
Definitely one to look out for when it becomes available.



The 2020 Directors Guild of America (DGA) Award nominees...

Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite
Sam Mendes, 1917
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit


Winner to be announced Saturday, January 25.

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Rotten Tomatoes has it at 66%, IMDB about the same-- audience and critics both. Still, it won't be surprising if the flick gets shoehorned into the Oscar nominations.

My point is that the story was chosen because of it's PC/SJ value, and because of that it wasn't loved. RTs "Critics consensus" puts it this way:

"Bombshell benefits from a terrific cast and a worthy subject, but its impact is muffled by a frustrating inability to go deeper than the sensationalistic surface."

Well, at least it was a worthy subject...

~Doc

Bombshell doesn't go far enough but having seen it Charlize Theron gives arguably the best performance of her career and easily tops Phoenix's Joker



For actor, I prob go with Joaquin. ( doesn't always happen but usually whoever wins the golden globe, have a higher chance of getting the oscar.



The 2020 Directors Guild of America (DGA) Award nominees...

Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite
Sam Mendes, 1917
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit


Winner to be announced Saturday, January 25.
The winner should be Scorsese or Tarantino, but it sure seems like Mendes will win it. Joon-Ho has a big chance of winning it too. Waititi has a very slim chance. Actually he has no chance.
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Now I wonder what the overlap is between the various guilds' nominees and the Academy's nominees tend to be (what with Academy members who belong to particular fields choosing the nominees for those fields - game recognise game and all that).
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Now I wonder what the overlap is between the various guilds' nominees and the Academy's nominees tend to be (what with Academy members who belong to particular fields choosing the nominees for those fields - game recognize game and all that).
For the DGA as an example you can be sure that nearly every single member of the Directors Branch of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences is also a member of the DGA. But the Directors Guild of America also includes directors of television, commercials, documentaries, and videos so their pool of members is much, much larger and contains many who will never be on the Academy's voting rolls. As of 2018 there were 512 members of the Directors Branch of the Academy, out of 7,258 total Academy members. The Directors Guild of America has around 18,000 members.

Even with that disparity in numbers the five DGA nominees and five Oscar nominees for Best Director are very similar, usually differing by one spot but rarely more than that. And the DGA Award is by far the most accurate predictor of who will win the corresponding Oscar compared to other Guild awards. The PGA (Producers Guild of America) is also a pretty strong correlator to the Best Picture winner. The Screen Actors Guild (SAG), Writers Guild of America (WGA), and American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) all have annual year-end awards, there is plenty of overlap with the Oscars, but they are never all identical and nothing is infallible as a predictor.

In the previous nine awards seasons the five DGA and five Oscar nominees for Best Director never matched exactly. In seven of those nine there was only one difference. The other two years had three differences once and a pair the other in their ballots. But the two bodies have had the same winner in all but one of those years. The one that didn't match being the anomaly of the DGA winner (Ben Affleck for Argo) not even being nominated by The Academy (Ang Lee won that year for Life of Pi) and also the year with three differences on the ballot. That is very, very rare. Last year's crop was the one with two differences on the ballots: the DGA nominated Alfonso Cuarón (Roma), Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born), Peter Farrelly (Green Book), Spike Lee (BlackKklansman), and Adam McKay (Vice) while the Oscars had Cuarón, Lee, and McKay but nominated Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite) and Paweł Pawlikowski (Cold War) in favor of Cooper and Farrelly. Alfonso Cuarón won both awards.

The odds are the five Oscar nominees will NOT be exactly the same as the five DGA nominees. Since 1980 they have only matched all five nominees four times: 1981 (Warren Beatty won both awards for Reds), 1998 (Spielberg won both for Saving Private Ryan), 2005 (Ang Lee won both for Brokeback Mountain), and 2009 (Kathryn Bigelow won both for The Hurt Locker). If I had to guess I would say Mendes, Scorsese, and Tarantino are locks for Oscar spots, Bong Joon-Ho is a near lock, and Taika Waititi likely won't make the Oscar cut. Greta Gerwig (Little Women) or Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story) would be my guess as to who takes that fifth spot with The Safdie Brothers (Uncut Gems) or Todd Phillips (Joker) hanging around the margins to vault in. If Terrence Malick (A Hidden Life) or Pedro Almodóvar (Pain & Glory) were to have their names called it woulnd't be a total shock as they are well respected former nominees in this category, but I don't see them making it this time (though both made great films). Waititi is one of my favorite directors, Jojo Rabbit was a delight, and I am hoping against hope he makes the Academy cut. But I don't think it's likely.


We'll know Monday morning



The New York Film Critics Cirlce had their awards last night. The winners...

PICTURE
The Irishman

DIRECTOR
The Safdie Brothers, Uncut Gems

ACTRESS
Lupita Nyong'o, Us

ACTOR
Antonio Banderas, Pain & Glory

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Laura Dern, Marriage Story and Little Women

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Joe Pesci, The Irishman

SCREENPLAY
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE
Parasite

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Portrait of a Lady on Fire

DOCUMENTARY
Honeyland

ANIMATED FEATURE
I Lost My Body

BEST FIRST FILM
Atlantics



Critics Choice Awards winners (asterisks)

BEST PICTURE
“1917”
“Ford v Ferrari”
“The Irishman”
“Jojo Rabbit”
“Joker”
“Little Women”
“Marriage Story”
”Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood”*
“Parasite”
“Uncut Gems”

BEST ACTOR
Antonio Banderas – “Pain and Glory”
Robert De Niro – “The Irishman”
Leonardo DiCaprio – “Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood”
Adam Driver – “Marriage Story”
Eddie Murphy – “Dolemite Is My Name”
Joaquin Phoenix – “Joker”*
Adam Sandler – “Uncut Gems”

BEST ACTRESS
Awkwafina – “The Farewell”
Cynthia Erivo – “Harriet”
Scarlett Johansson – “Marriage Story”
Lupita Nyong’o – “Us”
Saoirse Ronan – “Little Women”Charlize Theron – “Bombshell”
Renée Zellweger – “Judy”*

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Willem Dafoe – “The Lighthouse”
Tom Hanks – “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”
Anthony Hopkins – “The Two Popes”
Al Pacino – “The Irishman”
Joe Pesci – “The Irishman”
Brad Pitt – “Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood”*

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Laura Dern – “Marriage Story”*
Scarlett Johansson – “Jojo Rabbit”
Jennifer Lopez – “Hustlers”
Florence Pugh – “Little Women”
Margot Robbie – “Bombshell”
Zhao Shuzhen – “The Farewell”

BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS
Julia Butters – “Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood”
Roman Griffin Davis – “Jojo Rabbit”*
Noah Jupe – “Honey Boy”
Thomasin McKenzie – “Jojo Rabbit”
Shahadi Wright Joseph – “Us”
Archie Yates – “Jojo Rabbit”

BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE
“Bombshell”
“The Irishman”*
“Knives Out”
“Little Women”
“Marriage Story”
“Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood”
“Parasite”

BEST DIRECTOR
Noah Baumbach – “Marriage Story”
Greta Gerwig – “Little Women”
Bong Joon Ho – “Parasite”*
Sam Mendes – “1917”*
Josh Safdie and Benny Safdie – “Uncut Gems”
Martin Scorsese – “The Irishman”
Quentin Tarantino – “Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood”

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Noah Baumbach – “Marriage Story”
Rian Johnson – “Knives Out”
Bong Joon Ho and Han Jin Won – “Parasite”
Quentin Tarantino – “Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood”*
Lulu Wang – “The Farewell”

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Greta Gerwig – “Little Women”*
Noah Harpster and Micah Fitzerman-Blue – “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”
Anthony McCarten – “The Two Popes”
Todd Phillips & Scott Silver – “Joker”
Taika Waititi – “Jojo Rabbit”
Steven Zaillian – “The Irishman”

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Jarin Blaschke – “The Lighthouse”
Roger Deakins – “1917”*
Phedon Papamichael – “Ford v Ferrari”
Rodrigo Prieto – “The Irishman”
Robert Richardson – “Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood”
Lawrence Sher – “Joker”

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Mark Friedberg, Kris Moran – “Joker”
Dennis Gassner, Lee Sandales – “1917”
Jess Gonchor, Claire Kaufman – “Little Women”
Lee Ha Jun – “Parasite”
Barbara Ling, Nancy Haigh – “Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood”*
Bob Shaw, Regina Graves – “The Irishman”
Donal Woods, Gina Cromwell – “Downton Abbey”

BEST EDITING
Ronald Bronstein, Benny Safdie – “Uncut Gems”
Andrew Buckland, Michael McCusker – “Ford v Ferrari”
Yang Jinmo – “Parasite”
Fred Raskin – “Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood”
Thelma Schoonmaker – “The Irishman”
Lee Smith – “1917”*

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Ruth E. Carter – “Dolemite Is My Name”*
Julian Day – “Rocketman”
Jacqueline Durran – “Little Women”
Arianne Phillips – “Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood”
Sandy Powell, Christopher Peterson – “The Irishman”
Anna Robbins – “Downton Abbey”

BEST HAIR AND MAKEUP
“Bombshell”*
“Dolemite Is My Name”
“The Irishman”
“Joker”
“Judy”
“Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood”
“Rocketman”

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
“1917”
“Ad Astra”
“The Aeronauts”
“Avengers: Endgame”*
“Ford v Ferrari”
“The Irishman”
“The Lion King”

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
“Abominable”
“Frozen II”
“How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World”
“I Lost My Body”
“Missing Link”
“Toy Story 4”*

BEST ACTION MOVIE
“1917”
“Avengers: Endgame”*
“Ford v Ferrari”
“John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum”
“Spider-Man: Far From Home”

BEST COMEDY
“Booksmart”
“Dolemite Is My Name”*
“The Farewell”
“Jojo Rabbit”
“Knives Out”

BEST SCI-FI OR HORROR MOVIE
“Ad Astra”
“Avengers: Endgame”
“Midsommar”
“Us”*

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
“Atlantics”
“Les Misérables”
“Pain and Glory”
“Parasite”*
“Portrait of a Lady on Fire”

BEST SONG
“Glasgow” (No Place Like Home) – “Wild Rose”* (TIE)
“(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” – “Rocketman”* (TIE)
“I’m Standing With You” – “Breakthrough”
“Into the Unknown” – “Frozen II”
“Speechless” – “Aladdin”
“Spirit” – “The Lion King”
“Stand Up” – “Harriet”

BEST SCORE
Michael Abels – “Us”
Alexandre Desplat – “Little Women”
Hildur Guðnadóttir – “Joker”*
Randy Newman – “Marriage Story”
Thomas Newman – “1917”
Robbie Robertson – “The Irishman”



The odds are the five Oscar nominees will NOT be exactly the same as the five DGA nominees. Since 1980 they have only matched all five nominees four times... If I had to guess I would say Mendes, Scorsese, and Tarantino are locks for Oscar spots, Bong Joon-Ho is a near lock, and Taika Waititi likely won't make the Oscar cut. Greta Gerwig (Little Women) or Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story) would be my guess as to who takes that fifth spot with The Safdie Brothers (Uncut Gems) or Todd Phillips (Joker) hanging around the margins to vault in. If Terrence Malick (A Hidden Life) or Pedro Almodóvar (Pain & Glory) were to have their names called it wouldn't be a total shock as they are well respected former nominees in this category, but I don't see them making it this time (though both made great films). Waititi is one of my favorite directors, Jojo Rabbit was a delight, and I am hoping against hope he makes the Academy cut. But I don't think it's likely.


We'll know Monday morning
It was Todd Phillips who took that fifth spot. Meaning if anybody but Waititi wins the DGA Award they instantly become the prohibitive favorite to win the Oscar. And it means that historically Todd Phillips basically has almost zero chance of winning at the Academy Awards.

The DGA Awards are announced Sunday January 26th, two weeks before the Oscars.



It doesn't look like anybody listed the nominees for the Producers Guild of America (PGA) Awards here. They were announced at the beginning of the month and they reveal their winners this weekend.

The PGA nominees for Best Picture

Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Knives Out
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite


These are the exact nine nominees for Oscar's Best Picture, plus Knives Out. The PGA started handing out their annual awards in 1990 and since then their winner has matched The Academy's Best Picture 21 out of 30 times. 70% is a pretty darn good predictor, though nothing like the DGA's accuracy. The PGA has been trending more accurately of late. In the past dozen awards seasons they have matched Oscar all but twice (The Big Short/Spotlight and La La Land/Moonlight). Whatever they name this Saturday has a darn good chance of winning the Academy Award.



The SAG Award nominees...

Female Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Laura Dern, “Marriage Story”
Scarlett Johansson, “Jojo Rabbit”
Nicole Kidman, “Bombshell”
Jennifer Lopez, “Hustlers”
Margot Robbie, “Bombshell”

Male Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Tom Hanks, “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”
Al Pacino, “The Irishman”
Brad Pitt, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Joe Pesci, “The Irishman”
Jamie Foxx, “Just Mercy”
So far the favorites are unsurprisingly continuing to roll. Dern's speech was heartfelt, Pitt's was very funny. Expect more of the same come Oscar night.




Cast in a Motion Picture
“Bombshell”
“The Irishman”
“Jojo Rabbit”
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
“Parasite”

Male Actor in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture
Christian Bale, “Ford v Ferrari”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Adam Driver, “Marriage Story”
Taron Egerton, “Rocketman”
Joaquin Phoenix, “Joker”

Female Actor in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture
Cynthia Erivo, “Harriet”
Scarlett Johansson, “Marriage Story”
Lupita Nyong’o, “Us”
Charlize Theron, “Bombshell”
Renee Zellweger, “Judy”


The other two heavy favorites cruised to their Oscar warm up victories. Zellweger was annoying and for some reason reverted to the thick Southern drawl she hasn't had in real life since she was sixteen and Joaquin was incredibly charming and reverential to his fellow nominees.

No acting surprises this Oscar season.

Parasite did become the first foreign language film to win Best Cast at the SAG Awards. And once again will likely not match Best Picture.



Thread Killer (Let's kill the threads tonight)
I was always sort of expecting Once Upon A Time In Hollywood to win the assemble but that Parasite win is a big deal, especially for a foreign film. There was apparently major love in that room last night, especially when the cast was brought out earlier to introduce the film. If there was any runner-up to 1917, it's this. Could definitely be this year's Moonlight.

Then again, Moonlight didn’t win either the PGA Award or the SAG Ensemble three years ago, but it still claimed best picture anyway. Who knows what'll happen.
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28 days...6 hours...42 minutes...12 seconds
I've made my Oscar picks and Parasite is going to take it. I'm expecting a split again this year.
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Thread Killer (Let's kill the threads tonight)
I feel iffy on making my picks now, especially best picture, given how atypically short this season is. There isn't a lot of time for further twists, it seems. I can't stress enough how important that Parasite win was, however. This was the only movie preventing 1917 from winning best picture, and any other film winning that ensemble would have been irrelevant.

Then again, the season is unusually short - standard precedents might not apply. 1917 is doing pretty well critically and commercially. Parasite might just have to settle for foreign language film, all depending on how the landscape for director and screenplay looks within the coming weeks.





Last night Sam Mendes did in fact win the DGA Award for Outstanding Directing in a Feature Film. The DGA has been handing out this prize since 1948. Mendes becomes just the fifteenth person to win this award more than once. Spielberg leads everybody as the only to win three. Mendes now joins Francis Ford Coppola, Alfonso Cuarón, Clint Eastwood, Miloš Forman, Ron Howard, Alejandro González Iñárritu, David Lean, Ang Lee, Joseph L. Mankiewicz, George Stevens, Oliver Stone, Robert Wise, and Fred Zinnemann with two wins each. Mendes won his first twenty years ago for American Beauty on way to winning the Oscar for Best Director. He is on track to do the same with 1917.