Considering she's won most every award so far leading up to the Oscars, there's no reason to think Mo'Nique won't win with the Academy voters, too. Incredibly fierce and frightening performance, definitely hard to forget, and while
Precious has gotten lots of nominations all season it seems that this stand-up comedianne and sitcom star turned actress who had done nothing in her career that might have hinted she could play such a brutal character, Mo'nique has been singled out as the way this movie is going to be honored, awards-wise.
But there are four other actors in the category, even if they don't seem to have a shot.
Penélope Cruz just won in this category last year, for Woody Allen's
Vicky Christina Barcelona, and makes her third nomination overall (also Best Actress for
Volver). Her scenes in the disappointing
Nine are definitely among the film's best, including her playfully sexy Musical number in lingerie, but I thought she was much better in Almodóvar's
Broken Embraces this year. Oh, well. It's definitely not the kind of performance that is going to net her back-to-back wins, but I've always liked her so I'm glad she's getting nominated.
Maggie Gyllenhaal has been a favorite of indie and Hollywood filmmakers ever since her 2002 breakthrough in
Secretary but this is her first Oscar nomination. I think it's easy to argue that she is the female lead in
Crazy Heart, especially when she had a hilarious true supporting-sized role this year in
Away We Go. But they figured she'd have a better chance at making the cut on the supporting side, and I guess they were right. Too bad for her it's Mo'Nique's year. But you gotta figure she'll be back.
Co-stars in the same category often cancel each other out when it comes to voting, though certainly there are some memorable exceptions to that rule (F. Murray Abraham and Tom Hulce, Shirley MacLaine and Debra Winger, and so on). Since Mo'Nique is such a heavy favorite anyway it probably won't matter much that
Up in the Air's Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick appear on the same ballot (and of course these are the first nominations for both). Kendrick's character starts so uptight and gets to go through a nice little transformation which may nab her some consideration, while Farmiga's character is so sexy and fun but has a secret to reveal in the final act. Clooney has more of a chance at walking up to the stage come Oscar night, but both of these actresses will be happy to use their nominations as runways to other opportunities.
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