Some established veterans and one Oscar newcomer in this category, and the newbie has the edge.
Viggo Mortensen has been at this for quite a while now. From his first big screen appearance in Peter Weir's
Witness to the
Lord of the Rings megablockbusters he has always been an interesting presence.
Green Book is his third nomination as Best Actor, following his tattooed Russian gangster in
Eastern Promises (Daniel Day-Lewis won for
There Will Be Blood) and two years ago as the unconventional father in
Captain Fantastic (Casey Affleck won for
Manchester by the Sea). He won't win here either, though his performance as the boisterous, uncouth, and honorable driver Tony Lip is a more energetic and gregarious role than the quiet brooders he usually tackles.
Willem Dafoe has three previous nominations, all as Best Supporting Actor. His first was for his benevolent Sergeant Elias in
Platoon (Michael Caine won for
Hannah & Her Sisters), then as the mysterious "actor" Max Schreck in
Shadow of the Vampire (Benicio Del Toro won for
Traffic), and just last year as the empathetic motel manager in
The Florida Project (Sam Rockwell won for
Three Billboards). His first Best Actor nod is the second such nomination for playing Vincent Van Gogh: Kirk Douglas was acknowledged for playing Vince in
Lust for Life at the 1957 ceremony. Yul Brenner won for
The King & I, and Kirk's co-star Anthony Quinn won Best Supporting Actor for his Paul Gauguin. Van Gogh has been portrayed several times over the years, including Tim Roth in Bob Altman's
Vincent & Theo and even by Martin Scorsese acting in Kurosawa's
Dreams. The famous and famously tortured genius will likely be the subject of novels and cinema forever. Dafoe, as always, is excellent as Julian Schnabel's Vincent in
At Eternity's Gate. It won't be enough to win, but as one of my favorite actors it is wonderful to see him getting regular Oscar attention these days. He'll win one eventually, though he has a much better chance in the Supporting category, methinks.
Christian Bale is the only one of these five who is already an Oscar winner, having taken home the Best Supporting Actor trophy for David O. Russell's
The Fighter. His other two nominations were Supporting Actor in McKay's
The Big Short (Mark Rylance won for
Bridge of Spies) and Best Actor in David O. Russell's
American Hustle (McConaughey won for
Dallas Buyers Club). His transformation into Dick Cheney is impressive, aided by a real life weight gain and a lot of prosthetics. He certainly captured Cheney's still, measured, low-key, undynamic effectiveness in making very dynamic things happen in the corridors of power. Ultimately
Vice is not as interesting or creative a film as
The Big Short. Bale is very good - when isn't he? - but I don't think it is enough to win his second Oscar. Obviously portrayals of real life politicians have won in this category before, including recently with Daniel Day-Lewis as Abe Lincoln and Gary Oldman as Winston Churchill (and folks, THAT may be the only time outside of an Alex Jones rant where Lincoln, Churchill, and Dick Cheney are mentioned together), but I don't think this is a campaign that can be won.
The 44-year-old
Bradley Cooper was building his career nicely with supporting roles in comedies like
Wedding Crashers and
Failure to Launch and on TV in
"Alias". But he emerged from 2009's surprise blockbuster
The Hangover on the fast track to movie stardom. He took the paycheck to be in some more blockbusters like
The A-Team, the inevitable
Hangover sequels, and voicing Rocket in the
Guardians of the Galaxy corner of the Marvel Universe, but it was clear he was at least as interested if not more in working with top filmmakers on good scripts. Derek Cianfrance's
A Place Beyond the Pines, David O. Russell's
Silver Linings Playbook,
American Hustle, and
Joy, and Eastwood's
American Sniper and
The Mule are what he leveraged his newfound bankability to become part of. He got Oscar nominations three years in a row for
Silver Lining Playbook (Daniel Day-Lewis won for
Lincoln),
American Hustle (Jared Leto won for
Dallas Buyers Club), and
American Sniper (Eddie Redmayne won for
The Theory of Everything).
The latest re-make of
A Star is Born had been kicking around for a few years. Eastwood was attached to direct with Beyoncé and Bradley Cooper in the leads. Ms. Knowles' schedule kept delaying a start time, and Eastwood always had another project to do. Eventually Cooper convinced the producers and studio that he wanted to take a crack at the script and make his directorial debut while still starring. The result is pretty damn great, especially for a first time filmmaker. Somehow Bradley Cooper did not make the cut in the Best Director category, but the film got a Best Picture nod, Cooper a nod for co-adapting the screenplay, and on the acting side he guided salty veteran Sam Elliott, first time dramatic actor Lady Gaga, and himself to acting nominations.
I thought Cooper was fantastic, his best performance to date as the self-destructive Jackson Maine. It calls to mind other Best Actor winning performances of alcoholic fictional musicians: Jeff Bridges in
Crazy Heart and Robert Duvall in
Tender Mercies. As with two of the previous three versions of
A Star is Born, the leading man got a Best Actor nomination, following Fredric March and James Mason in the 1937 and 1954 versions as actor Norman Maine. Both lost their Academy Award bids, March to Spencer Tracy in
Captains Courageous and Mason to Brando for
On the Waterfront. I would love to see Bradley Cooper win, but if he does it'll be an upset.
Rami Malek is the overwhelming favorite. He has won so many awards leading into the Oscars, including the Golden Globe and SAG, that it would be a mild shock not to hear his name called to the Academy stage, too. From the first couple stills that emerged from the
Bohemian Rhapsody production it was clear Malek had absolutely nailed the physical transformation into the late Freddie Mercury, with some false choppers to mimic Freddie's trademark overbite topping it off. We didn't know what the film would be yet, but if nothing else he could win an awful lot of costume contests around Halloween. The 37-year-old Rami had never really come close to starring a film before, but he was putting in the work and when he got the starring role in USA Network's
"Mr. Robot" he drew the spotlight instantly, including at the Golden Globes where he got two nominations for the show and The Emmys where he won Best Actor in a Drama Series.
The Queen biopic project had been bouncing around town for a while, initially with a script by Peter Morgan (
The Queen, Frost/Nixon, "The Crown") and Sacha Baron Cohen to star as Mercury. But the band had creative control over the movie, and while Cohen wanted to dive in to a serious and gritty look at Mercury's remarkable if short life, Brian May and the band wanted a PG-rated crowd-pleaser about the rise of Queen. After Sacha left the project Ben Whishaw was attached, then some rumors that Cohen might still do it after all, before a new script was written and Malek secured the role...some five years after the original announcement of the project. The drama behind the scenes continued with director Bryan Singer abruptly leaving/being fired/whatever actually happened ahead of his sexual assault allegations becoming public in the Me-Too media swell, with former actor Dexter Fletcher assuming the rest of the directorial duties.
Even with all of that drama the movie was a box office success, if less so critically (currently sitting at 61% on the Tomatometer). Whatever flaws the film or Malek's more-of-an-impression-than-a-performance may have, he is the front runner. Far and away. There is no doubt Rami's commitment was sincere and he clearly spent countless hours absorbing Freddie Mercury's work and essence, and in the press for this film and his previous acceptance speeches he has always come off as humble and genuinely appreciative. Like Jamie Foxx's Ray Charles and Cagney's George M. Cohen, this portrayal of a real-life music superstar seems destined for Oscar gold. I wouldn't vote for it, but I think Malek can safely start deciding where he wants to display the trophy in his home.