Oscar Nominations 2019

8:20am ET/5:20 am PT

https://oscar.go.com/news/nomination...ouncement-live

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Here's some quick predix on the 4 major categories.

Best Picture
1. Roma
2. Green Book
3. A Star is Born
4. BlackKKlansman
5. The Favourite
6. Black Panther
7. If Beale Street Could Talk
8. Vice
9. Bohemian Rhapsody

Okay, this is the biggie.

This season got so wild, so quickly. There are several contenders for the win at this point, and none of them really feel right. I think there’s a very good chance whoever wins this, much like last year, won’t be nominated for, or even win the SAG ensemble. That stat is destroyed.

Unless the guilds pull a surprise: Actor, Actress, and Director are all off the table for ‘A Star is Born’. Bradley Cooper’s Musical Drama has pretty much been dethroned, leaving an open spot for another film to come in. The Globes have shown there’s absolutely no path for it to win.

On the surface, it may seem like Green Book is the winner here. It's already being touted to take Supporting Actor, and Original Screenplay (I suppose both hinge on whether they win their respective guilds; SGA and WGA). That’s been an incredibly common path to winning. However, Peter Farrelly has recently being outed for having a history of exposing himself to people as a joke (namely Cameron Diaz), etc. The Academy is certainly not going reward a producer who’s had such a questionable past of piggish behavior in this era of #MeToo (also, writer Nick Vallelonga’s tweets about Muslims). I think that it’s safely out of contention for the win now. Not to mention that the screenplay winners usually battle it out for the top award, unless the directing winner takes it.

Which also got me thinking how conveniently Roma's win would mirror The Shape of Water's. It's a very different situation in many ways, but the similarities are tough to ignore. Golden Lion winner from a Mexican director, that misses SAG Ensemble, and is expected to win Director, but not any acting or screenplay Oscars. The former was the first movie since Braveheart to pull off the win without SAG ensemble, and anything else above-the-line except Director. So, could it really happen two years in a row? We recently had the back-to-back years of PGA/DGA winners failing to win Picture (2016, 2017), so it's not like these weird occurrences don't repeat. With every day that goes by, I have a harder time seeing Roma lose BP at this point, even when Green Book wins PGA.

Also: Reverse Driving Ms. Daisy… I mean... come on. It's been 30 years. And they're going to reward Reverse Driving Ms. Daisy/Driving Ms. Daisy 2.0, after Spike Lee gets nominated for director the first time ever, as his film is also nominated for Best Picture? Nearly 30 years after ‘Do The Right Thing’ was snubbed across the board in favor of ? Come on, man!

Director
1. Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
4. Adam McKay, Vice
5. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

Alfonso Cuarón has this in the bag. There’s a tiny, very tiny chance Cooper could come in at the last minute to win DGA, and go on from there. But I highly doubt that. It's Cuarón’s to lose.

The question is, who is coming in at N.4 and N.5? Especially N. 5 - that seems like anyone’s ballgame. And as I was typing this, the recent news just broke out. Peter Farrelly seems done.

So, firstly, Pawlikowski has surprisingly garnered a recent surge after his BAFTA nom. His film hasn’t garnered the attention that others here have, but he’s currently being touted as a surprise passion pick; it would make sense. However, that might just end up being wishful thinking from others.

Yorgos Lanthimos seemed like a sure-fire contender before the season even started. It seemed like that was the case until he missed the Globe and the DGA. Now he’s stuck only with a BAFTA nom; the same organization that gave his film the most nominations. But, again, this could also be just wishful thinking from others.

So, who’s left? Well, Adam McKay’s film ‘Vice’, despite not performing at the level everyone expected it to - critically or commercially - still managed to either campaign hard enough before the reception came in, or just survived enough-in general to hit every box (Globe, SAG, DGA, WGA, PGA, and BAFTA). Not to mention that the fall of Farelly leaves an even bigger spot for him to enter. So I think it's pretty safe to assume he’s in.

That just leaves leftover contenders that could make a resurgence and show up as PTA-style passion pick: Jenkins, Chazelle, Coogler, and McQueen. Let’s not forget: this is the directors' branch. They eat “locked” contenders for breakfast. But If you had to put a gun to my head: my money would probably be on Yorgos Lanthimos. DGA won’t be matching up 5/5, and at least one BAFTA nominee has to be left out on the cutting room floor. u

Lead Actor
1. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
3. Christian Bale, Vice
4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
5. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman

Unfortunately, Malek will probably take this rather easily. Cooper obviously made a big mistake prioritizing his Director FYC campaign, over his Lead Actor one. And now, if he plans to win, he’s going to have to pivot to this quick since Cuarón is clearly gonna sweep. I only hope he prays to god that Twitter users and Journalists will burn Bohemian Rhapsody to the ground ("straight washing", the fact that a pedo originally directed it, how people just don't like the film in general, etc.)

It's clear Cooper does not have a DiCaprio type rep with the HFPA (lost for Silver Linings, snubbed for Sniper). Though, I think there's a chance he can still recover from this, and who knows how the industry is going to react to his film and his performance. Don't get me wrong, I'm still confident in Raimi taking this, if you had me predict right now. But, looking at the overall picture, it seems very 50/50. Have to see SAG just to be 100% sure, I suppose. And this isn't just about Rami Malek, it's about the huge amount of love for Freddie Mercury. Given the choice between Freddie Mercury, Dick Cheney, and a fictional down-on-his-luck rockstar: Hollywood's going with Mercury.

As for the rest, I'd say it's a very sure thing that Bale and Viggo will get nominated, but John David Washington seems like a coin toss. Anyone else could surprise and show up in that slot come nomination day. Critics have been pushing hard for Ethan Hawke (already has LA, NY, Gotham; the trifecta). Though, Washington does already have SAG and Globe noms to his name. Plus, his film already has great support from the guilds; particularly the acting branch. I think It's safe say he’s pretty secure.

Best Actress
1. Glenn Close, The Wife
2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite
3. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
5. A toss up between Emily Blunt and Yalitza Aparicio

It seems as if Glenn Close is finally winning, folks.

Gaga losing the Globe is a BIG deal, and 'A Star is Born' feels like it’s underperforming a bit (critics’ groups kinda gave a preview, and then the HFPA chimed in). Also, Lady Gaga, pop star; she’s not a film star (not yet, at least), and it’s her first film role. Feels like a “nomination is the reward” type of situation - I mean, would she really beat soon-to-be-7x Oscar nominee Glenn Close? As for anyone else winning: Colman has the best reviews of any of the nominees in this category, along with the showiest role, while stilling have a decent shot at winning the SAG, etc. It might be too early to say Close has this locked, or anything like that. But if Close doesn’t win, I think it’s gonna have to be Colman. Gaga is nearly finished.

I agree with your predictions. However, I think Bale will win the Oscar for Vice.

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The nominations are being announced right now...

Normally I'd have the nominations entered and the pool up within the hour, but I've got dental surgery today, so it'll be a day (or a few, we'll see). Just FYI for those used to the usual schedule.

Bradley Cooper got snubbed for Best Director, and so did Peter Farrelly.

Mary Poppins Returns, If Beale Street Could Talk, and First Man get no Best Picture nod.

Best Supporting Actor

• Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”
• Adam Driver, “BlacKkKlansman”
• Sam Elliott, “A Star Is Born”
• Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
• Sam Rockwell, “Vice”

Best Supporting Actress

• Amy Adams, “Vice”
• Marina de Tavira, “Roma”
• Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
• Emma Stone, “The Favourite”
• Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite”

Best Film Editing

• “BlacKkKlansman”
• “Bohemian Rhapsody”
• “The Favourite”
• “Green Book”
• “Vice”

Best Costume Design

• “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs”
• “Black Panther”
• “The Favourite”
• “Mary Poppins Returns”
• “Mary Queen of Scots”

Best Original Score

• “Black Panther”
• “BlacKkKlansman”
• “If Beale Street Could Talk”
• “Isle of Dogs”
• “Mary Poppins Returns”

Best Animated Short

• “Animal Behavior”
• “Bao”
• “Late Afternoon”
• “One Small Step”
• “Weekends”

Best Live-Action Short

• “Detainment”
• “Fauve”
• “Marguerite”
• “Mother”
• “Skin”

Best Sound Editing

• “Black Panther”
• “Bohemian Rhapsody”
• “First Man”
• “A Quiet Place”
• “Roma”

Best Sound Mixing

• “Black Panther”
• “Bohemian Rhapsody”
• “First Man”
• “Roma”
• “A Star Is Born”

Best Picture

• “BlacKkKlansman”
• “Black Panther”
• “Bohemian Rhapsody”
• “The Favourite”
• “Green Book”
• “Roma”
• “A Star Is Born”
• “Vice”

Best Director

• Alfonso Cuarón, “Roma”
• Spike Lee, “BlacKkKlansman”
• Adam McKay, “Vice”
• Pawel Pawlikowski, “Cold War”
• Yorgos Lanthimos, “The Favourite”

Best Actor

• Christian Bale, “Vice”
• Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”
• Willem Dafoe, “At Eternity’s Gate”
• Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”
• Viggo Mortensen, “Green Book”

Best Actress

• Yalitza Aparicio, “Roma”
• Glenn Close, “The Wife”
• Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”
• Lady Gaga, “A Star Is Born”
• Melissa McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”

Best Adapted Screenplay

• “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs”
• “BlacKkKlansman”
• “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
• “If Beale Street Could Talk”
• “A Star Is Born”

Best Original Screenplay

• “The Favourite”
• “First Reformed”
• “Green Book”
• “Roma”
• “Vice”

Best Animated Feature

• “Incredibles 2”
• “Isle of Dogs”
• “Mirai”
• “Ralph Breaks the Internet”
• “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”

Best Cinematography

• “Cold War”
• “The Favourite”
• “Never Look Away”
• “Roma”
• “A Star is Born”

Best Documentary Feature

• “Free Solo”
• “Hale County This Morning, This Evening”
• “Minding the Gap”
• “Of Fathers and Sons”
• “RBG”

Best Documentary Short

• “Black Sheep”
• “End Game”
• “Lifeboat”
• “A Night at the Garden”
• “Period. End of Sentence”

Best Foreign Language Film

• “Capernaum”
• “Cold War”
• “Never Look Away”
• “Roma”
• “Shoplifters”

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

• “Border”
• “Mary Queen of Scots”
• “Vice”

Best Original Song

• “All the Stars” from “Black Panther”
• “I’ll Fight” from “RBG”
• “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from “Mary Poppins Returns”
• “Shallow” from “A Star Is Born”
• “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings” from “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs”

Best Production Design

• “Black Panther”
• “The Favourite”
• “First Man”
• “Mary Poppins Returns”
• “Roma”

Best Visual Effects

• “Avengers: Infinity War”
• “Christopher Robin”
• “First Man”
• “Ready Player One”
• “Solo: A Star Wars Story”

Y’know, it hadn’t registered until I saw it nominated that this might be the film score track I've listened to the most this year:



To be clear, I still think Nicholas Britell’s work on First Man got snubbed and was the clear winner but I had similar thing happen with Goransson‘s theme for Creed. It sneaks up on you. I guess that’s cool.

Also, that’s about as invested as I can get over the nominations this year. So... I’m done.

Didn't see a Best Picture nominee for Black Panther or Melissa McCarthy for Lead Actress coming. Bradley Cooper's snub for directing was also a surprise.

Too much love for Vice and no love for my boy Mr. Rogers.


Weak Year. Hopefully Mofos can do better.

What a joke!
Black Panther LMAO

And yet it's not even the worst of the nominees.

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What a f*cking farce

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Letterboxd

I mean they've been contentious before, but this is just cringeworthy.

Has there been a worse set of noms in recent memory?

Dwell on it.

I think The Favourite will win a shed load of these

I agree

It might win 1 maybe 2.


I still have to see about 20 noms before I can make my judgements


Solo for visual effects is an F'n joke

This is the first time in 65 years that I haven't seen a single movie that's been nominated for Best Picture. I'm happy to report this, because films have gotten so poor. I'll likely see Roma and Green Book, but will skip the others.

~Doc