I'm sketchy with Nawlins' (am I saying it right Bubbles?) after last week, but maybe Tyrod isn't as great as Fitzpatrick.
Chargers flying cross country to the Bills? Dunno after they way they looked last week.
Last week's results are always important but not for the most obvious reasons.
Yes, the Saints got their asses handed to them by Tampa. Ryan Fitzpatrick is an enigma because he does that occasionally. It didn't surprise me that the Bucs won, but it was surprising how easy it was. It's important to remember that teams who play really well or really poor one week are not actually that good or bad. Betters will have overreactions due to the most recent games, and that's never more the case than going into week 2. On the other hand, the Browns played well, covering the spread at home in an emotional game. They are improved but not yet ready for prime time. The Saints cannot start the season 0-2 at home against 2 mediocre teams or else their season is over. They will not take the Brownies lightly because they played well last week, and they will play much better than they did against Tampa. If you look at the spread, the percentage of people betting on each team is around 50/50. Despite that, it has gone from NO-7 to NO-9 1/2. The Saints win this game and most likely cover.
You're on the right track with the other game. It is true that west coast teams struggle when traveling east, although that's more the case later in the season when weather is a factor and teams are more into the grind. Buffalo looked awful last week and there's certainly some overreaction to that as the Chargers are taking around 2/3 of the bets. The overreaction for Baltimore is one of the reasons why I jumped on Cincinnati Thursday. Back to San Diego; what scares me is the spread. Remember how I said that in the Saints game the action was 50/50 yet the line went from 7 to 9 1/2? Well in this game, with most bets on SD, the spread has gone from 7 1/2 DOWN to the key number of 7. That is reverse line movement, which is what we had Thursday, and also last Sunday in the Browns game. This is alarming and says that the Bills are worth a look. Also, just look at that game and the 7 point spread. There's a lot of people who play teasers and there's no more enticing team to tease this week than SD. If the books wanted to prevent this, they could easily raise the spread to 9 1/2 like they did in the Saints game, but apparently they are not afraid. If Buffalo wins this game outright, they will kill so many teasers that it will ensure books have a profitable week. If I were betting, it would be Buffalo or no play. San Diego, like The Saints, also need to bounce back and save their season, and that's why I think they at least win outright. That and because Buffalo is going to struggle all year with their QB situation, but there's good reason to be cautious with this game.
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