What do you think will get nominated for best picture at the Oscars?

My current predictions:

American Fiction
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
May December
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

Alternate: Anatomy of a Fall
Potential longer shots: The Color Purple, Air, Saltburn

Edit: I've changed my predictions to the PGA 10.

Barbie
Beau is Afraid
The Boy and the Heron
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
May December
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

We always get a shock or two and I can see Beau is Afraid getting some notice as it's very divisive. The people who love it really love it and should push for it. Mizaki is peaking at the right time so I can see them finally giving the master his due

American Fiction
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
Anatomy of a Fall
The Zone of Interest

Probably these 8.
With Maestro, May December, and The Holdovers as alternates.

Is May December really a comedy? I saw it nominated for that category in the Golden Globes and it didn’t strike me as one.

I don't consider May December a comedy. It's a really good film with strong performances and a couple darkly comedic moments, but it is predominantly a drama.

I didn’t think so. Was odd to see it nominated there

Haven't seen them all, but in PC/SJ Hollywood, Barbie ticks most of the boxes: it's about a woman, directed by a woman, reportedly disses men, and was a box office smash. Seems like a shoo-in to me...

I think Oppenheimer is going to win. It's a box office hit with great reviews from a respected, successful director who has never won an Oscar. It has a great cast, an interesting story and will likely get nominated in several different categories. Barbie has some significant flaws and I don't think it appeals to everyone in the Academy.

Right. It couldn’t possibly be because it was actually good and well received regardless of its perceived “PC/SJ” boxes it checks.

Well, we all have our own definitions of ‘good’; personally I think it’s absurd to call ‘Barbie’ good when you’ve got a Scorsese and a Nolan in the same race, both of them masterpieces (that’s just my opinion, definitely not objective). ‘Barbie’ has its merits, I guess, but in this race we’ve potentially got ‘Anatomy of a Fall’ and all manner of utterly brilliant films that are all, imo, in every possible way superior to ‘Barbie’. In this context it would be very odd for ‘Barbie’ to win, but I somewhat agree with Doc that it might, unfortunately.

I have a feeling that Barbenheimer will somehow be referenced. Especially if either Oppenheimer or Barbie gets an Oscar. Maybe Godzilla will??

Context goes out the window with the oscars. It's about money and optics.

Well, for sure, which is why I acknowledge it might indeed win. *sigh*

The number of Best Picture nominees had been fluctuating between seven and ten since 2009. Last year they announced it will automatically max out at ten nominees every year (or at least until they change it again).

I'll go with these ten...

Barbie
The Color Purple
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
May December
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
Saltburn


The nominations will be announced the morning of Tuesday January 23rd.

__________________
"Film is a disease. When it infects your bloodstream it takes over as the number one hormone. It bosses the enzymes, directs the pineal gland, plays Iago to your psyche. As with heroin, the antidote to Film is more Film." - Frank Capra

There's possible way Beau is Afraid is going to get a Best Picture nomination.

Eh, I doubt Barbie will win BP, but I do think it deserves a nomination regardless of the other supposed masterpieces nominated as well. I am quite sure Oppenheimer will take home the award, unless another film starts building momentum

I guess so, maybe. Then again, isn’t it a little bit of ‘let’s nominate everything that had hype around it’ type of thing? I don’t know, it’s a tough one. I personally just feel it really wasn’t that impressive (and the Oscars are meant to reward extraordinarily impressive stuff, even if in practice they don’t always), which again, that’s just my opinion.

I personally think it deserves a BP nomination. I know I’m not alone on that. Of course, one must consider that few movies have ever had 100% approval of its nomination for BP to begin with. I still think Silence of the Lambs was undeserving, for example.

You’re right, I guess in the end it’s all very relative/depends on personal preference. I love Silence of the Lambs, think it’s quite an all-encompassing film that’s got a lot to say, not just a murder by the numbers type thing. (Honestly, it’s ridiculous how often I’ve got SotL quotes in my head, such as cheap shoes, good bag ). But that said, I did think it was a bit odd it had an Oscar first time I found out about it, let alone a BP one.

May December got shut out at this morning SAG nominations. I'm now thinking May December will not get nominated. The Color Purple got nominated for best ensemble so it may get in instead.

I don't care.

But in some ways I would like this statistic to be wiped out:

The guy who directed Hall Pass and Shallow Hal has won more Oscars than Martin Scorsese.