2011 oscar predictions

You're not being fair. I enjoyed the message that poor black kids can be saved by a white family and play sports. Hopefully poor black kids all over the country are inspired to find their own white upper-middle class family who molds and raises them to play a game and make millions of dollars, so long as he stays away from their hot white daughter.

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Do you think Inception will be nominated as Oscar Best Picture?

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No, I doubt it. I believe it will be nominated for visual type of awards , but not for best picture.

Bingo.

Also, unless some better animated flick comes out later in the year, I think Toy Story 3 will snag a nomination. It is the best-reviewed film of the year.

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So far. Although, I wouldn't be surprised if it still is at the end of the year.

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To answer seriously this time, of the films already released thus far I think The Kids Are All Right is the closest thing to a sure bet for the Oscar's Best Picture final cut of ten. Just behind it I'd say Shutter Island has a more than decent chance, then another level down (don't wait for the kick) Inception and then a very slight outside shot but still possible for Polanski's The Ghost Writer. Toy Story 3 and How to Train Your Dragon are the two absolute sure-fire locks for Best Animated Feature, and I could see either one (but not both) squeaking onto the Best Picture list. I hope that The Twilight Saga: Eclipse doesn't make the cut simply because it has made a lot of money and they want twelve-year-old girls to stay up past their bedtimes and watch the Academy Awards...but I also wouldn't put it past them.

That's it, I would figure, so far. There are plenty of performances and technical achievements that will likely be cited in other titles not listed there, but I would call any of their chances at Best Picture nominations EXTREMELY slight.


As for titles yet to be released, simply going sight unseen on the track record of those involved at this extremely premature stage, I'd make educated guesses that the likes of the cloning piece Never Let Me Go, the downsizing drama The Company Men, Ed Zwick's pharmaceutical dark romantic comedy Love and Other Drugs, the prestige costume period piece The King's Speech, and Julia Roberts in the chickflick Eat Pray Love all have reasonable expectations of being in the serious contention for a few of the remaining ten slots. Because of the timely subject matter coupled with Ollie Stone's double-Oscar-winning history I'd suggest Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps has a shot, assuming it doesn't just completely suck. And as much as people seem ready to poo-poo it simply because of the idea of a "Facebook movie", depending on how it is received Fincher's The Social Network making it certainly wouldn't shock me. Depending on how relatively mainstream Darren Aronofsky's Black Swan and/or Sofia Coppola's Somewhere turn out to be, they could well be in the mix (and are near locks for Independent Spirit Award noms). Julian Schnabel's Miral has the right pedigree, on paper, anyway. Now that the brothers Coen are bigtime Oscar winners you cannot count out their True Grit re-make. And as for a couple that have a chance of rounding out the soft middle territory I'd keep an eye on James L. Brooks' How Do You Know starring past winners Reese Witherspoon and Jack Nicholson (as well as Paul Rudd and Owen Wilson), plus the James L. Brooks-wannabe Morning Glory with its headlining cast of Harrison Ford, Diane Keaton and Rachel McAdams.


But betting on which movies that haven't even been released yet will make it is even more fruitless than trying to figure out which April or July titles that people have actually seen will make it. NOBODY would have predicted District 9 or The Blind Side or Precious or An Education making it this time last year (expanding to ten nominees or not), much less The Hurt Locker not only making the cut but actually winning Best Picture.


As everyone has noted, it is of course much, MUCH too early to make any real predictions at this point. Check back in January.

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I'm not saying that Edge Of Darkness should get Best Picture, I'm saying it should get Best Actor. Has Mel Gibson ever been better than he was in EOD?

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I thought it was pretty typical Mel. But if you think in this year of controversy enveloping him off-screen that the Academy is going to reach back to a movie from January that has virtually zero chance at Oscar nominations and single him out...well, you're simply kidding yourself.

Now, if his performance in Jodie Foster's new film next year is a good one and some time passes without any more horrible and embarrassing revelations, at the 2012 ceremony I could see him as possibly in the mix. But this year, for Edge of Darkness? Zero chance.

You don't know that for sure.

Believe what you want, Pal. We'll know a scant six months from now.

What was Oscar winning in Mel's performance?

Well, duh, nobody knows for sure. It's just incredibly unlikely. Like, I'd bet actual money on it. And probably feel guilty about it.

If anyone deserves an oscar for Edge Of Darkness it's Ray Winstone for Best Supporting Actor. He was terrific in it.

BTW was the last line rhetorical question?.. if it was, then I think you should watch more movies..
if it wasn't, then yes he has has done better before.

As for some of the performances from the first seven and a half months of potential nominees, even with its blip of box office I'd say Robert Duvall, Bill Murray and Sissy Spacek all have legitimate outside shots from Down Low. Multiple former nominees but never winners Julianne Moore and Anette Bening should still be in contention in January, as well as their Kids Are All Right co-star Mark Ruffalo. I could imagine The Ghost Writer's Pierce Brosnan or Olivia Williams in the Supporting mix, though those categories are usually overflowing with snubs. Hardly anybody saw Cyrus, but of the three principles Academy darling Marisa Tomei gave another very good performance that might reemerge come Awards season. Winter's Bone is probably much too small a film to stand out for Oscar, but if Jennifer Lawrence gets lots of critics prizes she may wind up in the Best Actress mix like Melissa Leo a couple years back. Kristen Stewart and Dakota Fanning from The Runaways will be bandied about, which would also be a way to sort of backdoor some enthusiasm from the Twilight legions. I suspect the brutality of The Killer Inside Me will keep Casey Affleck out of the Oscar lineup. If the Merchant/Ivory pic The City of Your Final Destination had any kind of heat I'd say Sir Anthony Hopkins might have a slight chance, but it'd be much more likely he'll get recognized for the Woody Allen movie this Fall (You Will Meet a Tall Dark Stranger).

I wouldn't guess too many more than that, from the January through early August releases. Leo DiCaprio's star power and previous noms may be enough to get him in the Best Actor mix for either Inception or Shutter Island, but I wouldn't put any really heavy money on either of them.

I second it.

It would definitely go with Inception and best actor will be Leonardo DiCaprio....so just wait and watch guys...

Any idea what's happening in the foreign films scene... any good foreign films that might get nominated?

I want to stay ahead of people this time.. the moment a foreign film wins, people go o check it out.. So I can be ahead of them to dish out criticism.

Most often the films nominated in the Best Foreign Language category don't get releases in the U.S. until after the announcement. Unlike the other nominees, there is no requirement that they have been released in America during the calendar year. So unless you are hitting the international Film Festival circuit or visiting Cannes each May, the chances of your coming into contact with what wind up as the five nominees each year are very slight. There are exceptions, of course, as when nominee Pan's Labyrinth or eventual winners Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon and Life is Beautiful were already theatrical successes in the States before the announcement, but much more often than not you'll have to wait until after the fact.

With the Portland International Film Festival here every February I often get to see three or four of the nominees each year, but only a matter of weeks before the Academy Awards.


Just based on the attention they've already received and the names attached, I'd say Mahamat-Saleh Haroun's A Screaming Man and Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu's Biutiful are likely to wind up in the mix, but beyond that, who knows? Maybe Cristi Puiu's Auora? We are still too far off and each country gets to send in a single potential nominee...and it's not always the one you'd think it should be. Biutiful doesn't get a limited U.S. release until the end of December, and despite its praises at Cannes Un Homme qui Crie (A Screaming Man) does not yet have a U.S. date (though it is in the New York Film Festival next month).

It's not only because I love him but because I feel like he truely derseves it but I would love to see Leo nominated (& hopefully win) for Best Actor for either of his performances this year (Inception or Shutter Island).

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