I think this is a two-horse race, though the second horse may not be the fan favorite.
Brad Pitt is a famous movie star, but as I detailed in
THIS thread I think he's a pretty darn good actor, too. The title role in
Benjamin Button is not an easy one since because of his unique condition he is mostly a passive observer and constant outsider on his remarkable journey, not giving a lot of emotion to play throughout. But as a star turn I think it's a good one. This is only his second Oscar nomination, the other coming in support of Gilliam's
12 Monkeys a dozen years ago. Since I think he is too often underrated I'm glad he got the nomination at least, but he has no real chance at winning.
I loved
The Visitor and thought Richard Jenkins was fantastic at the center of it. I always love to see good character actors get a chance at the lead and his subtle performance and less-than-Brad Pitt looks had me. But while this is great for his career and should lead to other interesting parts of size in indie pics, if he wins the Oscar it will be a huge upset and surprise. He may have a chance at getting past Rourke and Penn at the Independent Spirit Awards, but not the Oscars. But hopefully the attention is causing people who missed
The Visitor last year to rent it, which is the real award for the smaller movies when they get big nominations.
Frank Langella has been at this acting thing for quite a while now. Most of his acclaim has come on the stage, not screen, including the original New York and London productions of
Frost/Nixon. He had a chance at his first Oscar nomination last year for
Starting Out in the Evening though ultimately didn't make the cut. But this year, having just turned seventy-one, he makes his Academy Award debut (at seventy-one he's actually seven years older than Richard M. Nixon was at the time of the interviews with David Frost). The thirty-seventh President of the United States has been portrayed a bunch of times in film over the years and Langella's take on the man is one of the best (though for my money I still think Philip Baker Hall in Altman's
Secret Honor is tops). Like the actual interviews themselves, Langella's performance humanizes Tricky Dick a bit without absolving him of his political sins. He wouldn't be the oldest actor to win (Jessica Tandy was eighty when she won for
Driving Miss Daisy), but the old fella may just pull it off.
Did you hear Mickey Rourke's performance in
The Wrestler is his comeback? It must be true because I've seen about six dozen articles saying as much. As I've detailed in
THIS, I have always been a big fan of Mickey's. I think it's criminal (in the awards injustice sense, 'natch!) that he didn't get nominated for
Barfly over twenty years ago...back before he self-destructed his own career. Hell, I was pulling for him to get a nod for
SIN CITY (his "real" comeback, as far as I'm concerned). The melding of Rourke's own real-life troubles with the character of has-been grappled Randy "The Ram" Robinson and that his body and especially his face show all the abuse both the man and character have endured is what makes
The Wrestler what it is. Yes, it's a gritty character piece well made by Aronofsky, but without Rourke in there but instead a Sly Stallone or even Mr. T as the lead, I don't think it has the same kind of power or sadness. Because of Rourke's backstory and the perceived redemption of the critical and awards attention generated by the movie, he has to be seen as one of the favorites, certainly the best story among the acting nominees. But I think he's going to finish third. I think the nomination is all the respect he's going to get from the Academy this time around.
Sean Penn is one of the best actors of his generation. But
MILK is only his fifth nomination and four of them came in the past ten years. He didn't finally win one until
Mystic River five years ago. His work portraying the slain Harvey Milk is absolutely among his best performances and inhabits the man without a lot of histrionics or stereotypical tricks. It is a moving embodiment of the soul underneath the public persona, the legacy so perfectly detailed in the Oscar-winning documentary
The Times of Harvey Milk almost twenty-five years ago and thirty years since Harvey's assassination. It was the right filmmaker in Gus Van Sant at the right time with the right actor. And I think it's all going to add up to Oscar gold again for Sean.
Langella may squeak in if Rourke siphons off enough of the potential Penn votes, but I think it's going to be Sean Penn as Best Actor once again.