MoFo Fantasy Baseball - 2019 Season

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Am not into voodoo dolls... I'm very sorry baby it doesn't look like me at al.

It did feel like some of you caught on to some of my moves this season. We shall see if that translates to another really tight race next year. I'm pretty sure it will. I love hunting these numbers, gonna take more tthan voodoo dolls and universe juice to stop this train.
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We are both the source of the problem and the solution, yet we do not see ourselves in this light...



"Money won is twice as sweet as money earned."



If it's the thing I'm thinking of, it's been a thing Tim and I started doing like four years ago, but you might be thinking of something else. Not sure.

I don't think there's too many ways to game the system, thankfully, but there are a few marginally helpful things that only a handful of owners are doing. Lots of people, however, seem to do the "just pick up whoever had a great game the night before" thing.
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Yeah, I'm not really talking about any methods in particular. And now that I've won this twice I can freely admit that I have tried almost maliciously, to take the best of what both you and Tim do every year. You guys really have this thing figured. I had to change my approach just to get competitive with you guys. So I mean this...thank you. To all of you. This is a really cool mental exercise and I hope we're all here next year.



Yeah, there's definitely some stuff I've learned the hard way over the years. Tim's a super smart dude and we sorta bond over spreadsheets and analysis on all that. You should've heard us talking about our softball team (originally run by him, then handed off to me when he moved away), and trying to figure out which things our coed league was undervaluing. It's a lot of fun.

Thanks to you too, dude, I love the competition. I miss it so much when it's over, too. Really nothing like the marathon that is the baseball fantasy season.



A system of cells interlinked
Not sure I am able to parse all the little tricks you guys are referring to, which is perhaps why I tend to end up in 4th or 5th all the time. I try not to chase "hot bats the night before" too much, instead tending to trust proven talent whenever I can acquire it. I don't spend a lot of time pouring over stats or spreadsheets though, and perhaps that the problem.
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"There’s absolutely no doubt you can be slightly better tomorrow than you are today." - JBP



I didn't use spreadsheets early on but since yahoo switched to their own spreadsheet stat tracker I have spent an enormous amount time studying that. It is incredibly helpful.

Crap. Is there a trophy this year? I forgot to tell you that I moved.



A system of cells interlinked
I didn't use spreadsheets early on but since yahoo switched to their own spreadsheet stat tracker I have spent an enormous amount time studying that. It is incredibly helpful.

Crap. Is there a trophy this year? I forgot to tell you that I moved.
I do crack that sheet open a fair amount, so I guess I do look at sheets. That said, i think I put too much faith in big names this season, and ended up dialing up a pretty mediocre performance in the end.



Heh.

Just feel bad for the guy. Best pitcher of his generation, one of the all-time greats. And I'm not sure if he's actually bad or if it's just bad luck in a small sample. There's so many reputations that turn on narratives pulled from what's mostly statistical noise, though there's no way to know for sure if this is one of them. That tends to be my default assumption, though, since anyone who'd let The Pressure get to them generally isn't making the majors in the first place.

This game is a particularly good example of all this, because he was brought in with the bases loaded the previous inning and got a huge strikeout.



So, this is getting dumb:
It has nothing to do with the air of course, unless it's in Colorado, it has everything to do with how much harder they are trying which believe it or not is counterproductive.

I remember all the way back in Manatee County Little League when our counties League was playing we played on a softball field and the fence was just like any fence would be in any amateur softball league. The same distance as a Major League Baseball Field. When our county would go to the championship series and we play against other counties we would go to a superior ballpark in Sarasota, a proper Little League baseball field with a Outfield fence which is much much shallower, farther in.

We were chomping at the bit to start hitting home runs left and right because we knew we hit balls over a fence that distance just getting doubles at the time. You know what was funny, it didn't happen. Because everybody was trying to crank the ball over the fence it just happened less. I remember back when Evan Longoria was in his prime he would say in a crunch situation the hardest thing he must try and do is not try so hard. And that way baseball is like golf, very mental. Pure effort does not win championships, being in the zone does.



The chart there is about wind resistance on the ball itself. They seem to have flattened the seams on the outside, leading to the insane home run surge we've seen. MLB's been cagey commenting on this. The biggest bit of evidence other than the uptick in homers is that spin rates are different on pitches, too, which is also what you'd expect based on lessened resistance.

Some fences are shorter, to be sure, but the increase is happening year-over-year even in parks that haven't changed.



Ray's lose 6-1, damn. Well at least we came back from being down 2 games against the team most likely to win it all.