+2
France won last time and it could be them again, but I doubt it. If it's not one of the usual suspects though, I'll be stunned.
Argentina and Brazil are always fancied, but this year they both really look good and I'd expect both to make the semi's (I've not looked at the route for anyone so they could meet before then) unless they have a really off day. Back to back world cups are incredibly difficult and I wonder if the French defence and keeper are good enough to do it again. I also don't rate their coach (he coached them to victory at the last world cup but that team was more than talented enough to win with an average coach) so that's another mark against them.
Germany are the ones to watch though, for me. It might be a bit too soon, but they're coming on gangbusters and, as every English person knows, you never look past the Germans. Outside of them you have Belgium's last chance to win something with the very talented team they've had for the last 10 years. But it probably is a bridge too far now, especially with the aforementioned teams above them or Spain who have a good team but no cutting edge. Lastly England, it won't be (we'll go out to the first decent team we play as we always do) but we're a top 10 nation, so have to be mentioned, especially as Italy aren't there.
So, to answer your question, Brazil or Argentina. The time feel right and the narrative is there to be written as either Messi finally gets a World Cup and is totally taken to the hearts of the Argentine people like Maradona is, or Neymar fullfils his destiny and wins a World Cup for Brazil has been predicted/expected he would since he was about 16.