2018 Academy Awards

The Golden Globes, which don’t have an excellent track record with predicting the Oscar winners but do have a fair bit of correlation and provide voters an opportunity to catch a preview of potential winner’s speeches and be influenced accordingly, aired last night.

Here are the winners:

Best motion picture, musical or comedy: “Lady Bird”

Best director, motion picture: Guillermo del Toro, “The Shape of Water”

Best performance by an actress in a motion picture, drama: Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Best performance by an actor in a motion picture, drama: Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”

Best performance by an actress in a motion picture, musical or comedy: Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”

Best performance by an actor in a motion picture, musical or comedy: James Franco, “The Disaster Artist”

Best performance by an actress in a supporting role in any motion picture: Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”

Best performance by an actor in a supporting role in any motion picture: Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Best screenplay, motion picture: Martin McDonagh, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Best motion picture, animated: “Coco”

Best motion picture, foreign language: “In the Fade”

Best original score, motion picture: Alexandre Desplat, “The Shape of Water”

Best original song, motion picture: “This Is Me” — “The Greatest Showman”

Three Billboards was the big winner (taking 4 major prizes), Get Out the big loser (did its controversial comedy category placement hurt it or did it ever have a chance?), and I can definitely see a split year at the Academy where Del Toro takes Best Director (like Lee and Cuaron recently did for their FX-heavy, visually sumptuous adult studio dramas that didn’t snag Best Picture) as he did here. With the PGA and SAG nominations announced since the start, I’ll be updating my predictions soon. It continues to be a much more wide open race than usual with at least 5 real competitors for the top prize.

Best motion picture, drama - Three Billboards

Get Out only had two noms and Lady Bird was the big favorite.

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After the Golden Globe last night, Three Billboards is the favorite imo.
The reason? It's more Woman Power Time's Up bull****.

Eh, it seems more like Three Billboards is shaping up to be a Crash-like misfire of good intentions than anything else.

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3 billboards would be a bad best picture winner IMO.

In my opinion, Coco should win the Best Animated and Best Picture Oscars this year, making it the first animated film to ever win the Best Picture award.

I haven't seen Three Billboards or Lady Bird yet, but I doubt they are on par with Coco. Such a magnificent movie in general.

And it's about damn time Gary Oldman wins a Best Actor award. Long overdue! He is a lock-in for the Best Actor Oscar. Possibly the most versatile actor of our time.

Same goes for Sam Rockwell. One of the coolest actors around and I was glad he finally won (for Best Supporting Actor).

Frances McDormand is truly a badass (as Rockwell described her in his acceptance speech) and she deserves to win another Oscar this year. I haven't seen Three Billboards yet but I can tell from the trailer that she is great (almost as great as she was in Fargo). Michelle Williams was superb in All The Money In The World and it would be nice for her to steal it. Saoirse Ronan could have been brilliant in Lady Bird. Haven't seen it yet as I have mentioned, so I'll definitely be checking it out.

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I wouldn't have a single issue if 3 Billboards wins best picture.

It is a phenomenal movie.

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I really hope Ronan would win over McDormand.

That chance will be very very slim, equal to the chance Nolan wins best director.

I concur one of the three five star movies I've seen this year.

What are the other two?

Logan and I, Tonya

Lady Bird is winning picture; along with Screenplay, and Supporting Actress. (Ronan might win too, because McDormand has already won before.)

Oldman is going sweep everything, regardless of any backlash. (Because f**k you, that's why.)

Del Toro is winning director over Nolan.

For Supp. Actor: Dafoe is no longer the frontrunner, imo. Rockwell will take this.

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Hey guys, this is my prediction!. Despite the priority of mine it's probably going to be come true.

Best Pictures nom:
Call Me By Your Name
Dunkirk (6th place)
Darkest Hour (I was so much surprised in a good way)
Get Out (8th)
Lady Bird
The Florida Project (7th place)
The Shape of Water
The Post (9th)
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Winners:
Best Original Screenplay: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Adapted Screenplay: Call Me By Your Name
Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell
Best Supporting Actress: Laurie Metcalf
Best Actor: Gary Oldman
Best Actress: Saoirse Ronan
Best Director: Guillermo del Toro
Best PICTURE: The Shape of Water (For me - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

I would take out Get Out and put Coco instead. That movie, in my opinion, deserves not only the Best Animated Feature Oscar which it will definitely win, but also the Best Picture Oscar too.


For Best Supporting Actress, Allison Janney has it in the bag.
For Best Supporting Actor, I would love to see Willem Dafoe take it for Florida Project, and not Sam Rockwell. I know I've stated that Rockwell would win it in my previous post here, but I've changed my mind after watching Florida Project.
Dafoe and Oldman are long overdue for Oscar wins and this year will be it for both of them.
For Best Actress, McDormand deserves it but they will most likely give it to Ronan.
I agree with all the other choices you've made.

Rockwell was really good in Three Billboards, but not as great as Dafoe was in Florida Project. His performance was so sweet and completely out of character for him. The movie itself was just plain wonderful.

Here's my list of Oscar predictions:

BEST PICTURE: The Shape of Water
BEST DIRECTOR: Guillermo del Toro
BEST ACTOR: Gary Oldman
BEST ACTRESS: Soairse Ronan
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Willem Dafoe
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Allison Janney
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Call Me By Your Name
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Coco

Personal Preference doesn't matter in regards to what the industry thinks.

If Rockwell wins the SAG tonight: Dafoe's chances are done.

(My instantaneous reaction If 'Call Me by Your Name' wins best picture.)

Not necessarily.


In 2015, Sylvester Stallone won the Golden Globe and SAG award for Best Supporting Actor for Creed, but lost the Oscar to Mark Rylance, which was complete bullsh*t if you ask me.


It could happen again this year.