Yet another category where there is a clear favorite, with Natalie Portman having won most of the major prizes and awards this season, and seemingly had Oscar in her sites the moment
Black Swan hit the screens. But will there be an upset?
Jennifer Lawrence was a revelation in
Winter's Bone, but for her to somehow win would be one of the biggest surprises in Oscar history. Just ain't gonna happen. But now that she is on the radar, the next few years should have good filmmakers seeking her out, so the twenty-one-year-old may have more opportunities in the future. Her performance in
Winter's Bone certainly makes her a name to watch, Oscar nomination or not.
Michelle Williams is flat-out amazing in
Blue Valentine. This is her second nomination, having been nominated for
Brokeback Mountain a few years ago. She's come a long way since learning her way on
"Dawson's Creek", and I think she's done lots of good work on film, largely unnoticed in the likes of
Me Without You, Land of Plenty and
A Hole in One. Her work in
Wendy & Lucy two years ago did rightly get some prizes and nominations, though not from the Academy. But
Blue Valentine is by far her best performance, watching a young woman at the beginning and the end of a relationship, the choices she makes that get them together and the emotionally unbearable place the narrative finds her in years later. I am a massive Ryan Gossling fan, and he's good in the movie, but this is a tour de force for Ms. Williams, not him. If I had an actual Oscar ballot, I'd vote for Michelle. But one doesn't get the feeling that's the way it's heading, especially since it is the film's only nomination. But she's only thirty, and I have to believe now that she's made it to the nominated circle a couple times that she will be back multiple times in the future.
This is Nicole Kidman's third nomination, and she was named Best Actress eight years ago for
The Hours. I know Kidman has her detractors, though it seems as much based on her off screen persona than anything she does professionally, but I thought she was excellent in
Rabbit Hole, up there with
Margot at the Wedding as her best work in the past ten years...both being better than
The Hours, actually. But as good as she is, since she already has "Oscar winner" on her resume, I don't expect she'll win for a movie that didn't get any other nominations (not that it didn't deserve some).
Unlike Kidman, seems that just about everybody loves Annette Bening, on screen and off. Certainly her peers and the film industry adore her. This is her fourth Oscar nomination, dating back to 1990's
The Grifters, then later for
American Beauty and
Being Julia. As well liked as she is, she didn't win for any of those previous noms, losing the last two both to Hilary Swank (
Boys Don't Cry and
Million Dollar Baby). Annette is just about always good, and she's good in
The Kids Are All Right. But frankly it's the supporting role, Julianne Moore is the lead, and that she is nominated while Julianne is not is just strange to me. Bening will turn fifty-three this year, is happily married to an Oscar-winning Hollywood icon, and doesn't work a whole lot anymore. But while it seems like there are forces out there trying to make this her year, once again I think she's going to finish second to a younger actress with more heat. And the Studio or managers or Oscar membership or whoever it was that put Bening in the lead instead of supporting category, they cost her the best chance for winning. As Best Supporting Actress this year, she'd be the favorite. Oh, well.
Natalie Portman
is a near lock to win. Nothing is certain, of course, and upsets happen every now and then, even at the Academy Awards. But let's be serious: if any of the other four names are called Oscar night it will be a shock. And Portman did the best work of her career thus far in
Black Swan, so good on her. This is just her second nomination (Supporting Actress for
Closer), and to think that the Academy will not reward a beautiful, popular twenty-nine-year-old who graces magazine covers and is the centerpiece of one of the most artsy movies of the year in a role that demanded not just acting but a devotion to the study of ballet and the physical rigors and transformation that required...well, you're just kidding yourself if you bet against her.
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Reply to Topic
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
