PW's got a busy week, and since we've got ourselves another of those wacky Thursday games, he asked me write up a lil' somethin' for Week 13.
Week 13 is kind of a random week in that annoying thing we all like to call "reality." But in fantasy (which polls much better, by the way) and in our league, specifically, Week 13 is otherwise known as the Last Week of the Regular Season. That's right; this will be the last meaningful game for 8 of our 14 teams. There can only be 6! It'll like Highlander, but with 5 more. And more fighting. And less Christopher Lambert, though if he's reading this, I would totally let him join next year.
Normally, Pow-Wa goes through each matchup, rolls some dice, flings some chicken entrails around, and makes a prediction. I doubt I could do it as well as he does (I'm low on poultry), so I'll make up a short list and post it in a bit, and leave the in-depth pretend analysis to Pete and TONGO, etc. What I will do, however, is break down the playoff scenarios. There are quite a few of them, you know. Buckle up, it's gonna get statistical up in here.
Playoff Scenarios
Okay, the basics: 6 teams get in. The top 2 seeds get a Bye week to, er, rest up. Of course, in fantasy, this just means we're off the hook if our team sucks in Week 14. But that's what we're working with: 6 teams, 2 Byes, and 8 bye-byes.
The Ins, and the Likelys...
First thing's first: I'm in. Woohoo! Awesome. I'd like to thank God, my parents, and Drew Brees. Not necessarily in that order. I'm 9-3, just one game ahead of the next rung, so I could end up with a lower seed or a higher seed, but one way or another I'm in one of those aforementioned half-dozen Highlander slots.
After that, we have three 8-4 teams: The Replicants (Sedai), Team Darcy (Mrs. Darcy), and Wolverines (LTIZZY). If any of these three win, they're in. No matter what else happens.
Sedai's team is basically already in; even if he loses, there will be few enough teams above him that he'll be among the 8-5 tiebreaks. He may lose such a tiebreak to PW (who's about a half-point ahead for the overall lead), but he's more than 200 points ahead of every other 7-5 team, so at worst he'll be a #5 seed. He's playing for pride, honor, and the possibility of a Bye week. Not necessarily in that order.
Things Get Trickier...
After that, things get cray-zay. A win puts PW's Odd Squad in because of his point total, but a loss doesn't necessarily eliminate him. If PW loses, he just needs Slug's Sweeties to lose, as well. Both he and Slug will be 7-6 and tied for the 6th (and final) spot, and PW will win the points tiebreaker. This is because Gadsden Flag (upStomp) and Beantown Champs (Piledriver) play each other, ensuring that at least one of them will lose.
Then, the permutations get a little too insane to analyze, but here's the basic idea: the loser of the Gadsden/Beantown showdown is definitely out, but the winner isn't necessarily in. If either Slug or PW loses, the winner of the Gadsden/Beantown game is in the playoffs. If both Slug and PW win, the winner of the Gadsden/Beantown game will have to outscore Slug significantly; he has a 45-point lead on Beantown, and about a 60-point lead on Gadsden. HOWEVER, the winner can also get in if one of the 8-4 teams (Darcy or LT, since Seds' point lead is too big) loses, and they finish with a higher overall points total.
An Attempt to Simplify All That Complicated Stuff Above
Let's recap each team's scenario. I'm going to treat huge point advantages as impossible to overcome, since they pretty much are, and ignoring their technical possibility makes this breakdown a lot simpler:
Gotta say, the standings definitely bunched more than I had expected them to. I thought we'd have a couple of 10 or 11 win teams, a few 9-win teams, and then maybe a few 8-5 teams fighting for the last spot, but the top teams lost a bit down the stretch, and here we are; just one clinching team heading into the last week, and 8 teams still in the running for a spot. Should be crazy. Crazy exciting, that is.
All that said, don't forget to check your lineups, and don't forget that the Jets and Bills play tomorrow night! Get your lineups in!
Week 13 is kind of a random week in that annoying thing we all like to call "reality." But in fantasy (which polls much better, by the way) and in our league, specifically, Week 13 is otherwise known as the Last Week of the Regular Season. That's right; this will be the last meaningful game for 8 of our 14 teams. There can only be 6! It'll like Highlander, but with 5 more. And more fighting. And less Christopher Lambert, though if he's reading this, I would totally let him join next year.
Normally, Pow-Wa goes through each matchup, rolls some dice, flings some chicken entrails around, and makes a prediction. I doubt I could do it as well as he does (I'm low on poultry), so I'll make up a short list and post it in a bit, and leave the in-depth pretend analysis to Pete and TONGO, etc. What I will do, however, is break down the playoff scenarios. There are quite a few of them, you know. Buckle up, it's gonna get statistical up in here.
Playoff Scenarios
Okay, the basics: 6 teams get in. The top 2 seeds get a Bye week to, er, rest up. Of course, in fantasy, this just means we're off the hook if our team sucks in Week 14. But that's what we're working with: 6 teams, 2 Byes, and 8 bye-byes.
The Ins, and the Likelys...
First thing's first: I'm in. Woohoo! Awesome. I'd like to thank God, my parents, and Drew Brees. Not necessarily in that order. I'm 9-3, just one game ahead of the next rung, so I could end up with a lower seed or a higher seed, but one way or another I'm in one of those aforementioned half-dozen Highlander slots.
After that, we have three 8-4 teams: The Replicants (Sedai), Team Darcy (Mrs. Darcy), and Wolverines (LTIZZY). If any of these three win, they're in. No matter what else happens.
Sedai's team is basically already in; even if he loses, there will be few enough teams above him that he'll be among the 8-5 tiebreaks. He may lose such a tiebreak to PW (who's about a half-point ahead for the overall lead), but he's more than 200 points ahead of every other 7-5 team, so at worst he'll be a #5 seed. He's playing for pride, honor, and the possibility of a Bye week. Not necessarily in that order.
Things Get Trickier...
After that, things get cray-zay. A win puts PW's Odd Squad in because of his point total, but a loss doesn't necessarily eliminate him. If PW loses, he just needs Slug's Sweeties to lose, as well. Both he and Slug will be 7-6 and tied for the 6th (and final) spot, and PW will win the points tiebreaker. This is because Gadsden Flag (upStomp) and Beantown Champs (Piledriver) play each other, ensuring that at least one of them will lose.
Then, the permutations get a little too insane to analyze, but here's the basic idea: the loser of the Gadsden/Beantown showdown is definitely out, but the winner isn't necessarily in. If either Slug or PW loses, the winner of the Gadsden/Beantown game is in the playoffs. If both Slug and PW win, the winner of the Gadsden/Beantown game will have to outscore Slug significantly; he has a 45-point lead on Beantown, and about a 60-point lead on Gadsden. HOWEVER, the winner can also get in if one of the 8-4 teams (Darcy or LT, since Seds' point lead is too big) loses, and they finish with a higher overall points total.
An Attempt to Simplify All That Complicated Stuff Above
Let's recap each team's scenario. I'm going to treat huge point advantages as impossible to overcome, since they pretty much are, and ignoring their technical possibility makes this breakdown a lot simpler:
11 Angry MenThose last two are a bit complicated, but so it goes. For the record, here are the point totals of the most relevant tiebreaker possibilities:
In.
The Replicants
In.
Team Darcy
Win and you're in.
Wolverines
Win and you're in.
PW's Odd Squad
Win and you're in. Lose and you need Slug to lose, too.
Slug's Sweeties
Win and you're in, unless you're outscored by 45 (if Beantown wins) or 60 (if Gadsden wins).
Beantown Champs
Win and you need either PW or Slug to lose, and if both win you need to outscore Slug by 45. OR, if either Darcy or LT loses, you need to win and finish with a higher point total.
Gadsden Flag
Win and you need either PW or Slug to lose, and if both win, you need to outscore Slug by 60. OR, if either Darcy or LT loses, you need to win and finish with a higher point total.
Team Darcy, 1399 pointsHere's a really simple way to think about all this: at least 4 teams already have 8 wins, and two 7-win teams play each other, so at minimum, there will be FIVE teams with 8 wins or more. At maximum, there could be SEVEN teams with 8 wins or more. This means PW is the only team that could possibly make the playoffs at 7-6, and at most only one 8-5 team can possibly be left out.
Wolverines, 1363 points
Slug's Sweeties, 1372 points
Beantown Champs, 1327 points
Gadsden Flag, 1311 points
Gotta say, the standings definitely bunched more than I had expected them to. I thought we'd have a couple of 10 or 11 win teams, a few 9-win teams, and then maybe a few 8-5 teams fighting for the last spot, but the top teams lost a bit down the stretch, and here we are; just one clinching team heading into the last week, and 8 teams still in the running for a spot. Should be crazy. Crazy exciting, that is.
All that said, don't forget to check your lineups, and don't forget that the Jets and Bills play tomorrow night! Get your lineups in!
Last edited by Yoda; 12-02-09 at 01:45 PM.