When will Blu-Ray completely take over?

Isn't calling it a "trick" a bit of a stretch? We know the trade off if and when we upgrade, and you can only improve a given technology so much (if at all). DVDs just aren't capable of holding the amount of information of HD-DVDs, or Blu-Ray discs. We keep getting new formats because we keep inventing better ways to compress and deliver content.

Imo, studios aren't doing themselves any favours with the commen strategy of releasing bare bones DVD's intended for the rental market, followed by special editions which generaly include featurettes that ran on HBO and can be seen on youtube, followed by collectors, ultimate and so on.

the special features are the Only reason I purchase original dvd's in the first place.

As to the OP, i can't see blue-ray completely taking over, least for a couple of decades anyway.

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"The greatest danger for most of us is not that our aim is too high and we miss it, but that it is too low and we reach it." - Michelangelo.

Exactly. Of course, there are those people who crow "HD is no better than SD!", which it isn't if you're looking at it on an SD set - I found that out when I got my first Blu Ray and still had the old TV.

No matter how many pixels a HD image has it doesn't matter if you've got a 40" SD screen, you'll still only see a downgraded image with DVD resolution.

The price argument is increasingly bunk as well, especially if you buy online.

When you look at things from purely a movie-fan's point of view then HD makes perfect sense. A widescreen SD TV (and thus DVDs, I guess) runs at 704x480 pixels, a full HD set at 1920x1080. HDTVs upscale DVDs to match their resolution (otherwise you'll get a tiny image in the middle of the screen surrounded by a black border thicker than my left thigh) but all they're really doing is adding pixels with what they think should be there - some are better than others but it's really just repainting an old car.

The original print of a movie filmed on, say, 35mm stock has a resolution even higher than full HD (don't ask for a link, it's something I heard discussed ) so think of the ultimate detail you're losing with a DVD. The notion of good and bad HD transfers is another matter entirely, but you get my drift.

Pause a DVD then pause the same scene on a Blu Ray...

I'll buy a film if I like it regardless of the extras but if there's a special edition out there I'll get that. Simples.

I don't mind vanilla discs as rentals - If it's crap then I'm not wading through the extras anyway and if it's good I'll probably end up owning it regardless of extra content.

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"Critics are like eunuchs in a harem; they know how the Tatty 100 is done, they've seen it done every day, but they're unable to do it themselves." - Brendan Behan

It's obviously not going to be a dramatic flip like DVD eventually did. The transition was much more apparent too, digital over tape. Blu-ray is all in the picture/sound quality, which is sometimes muddled down to barely better because of bad blu-ray releases.

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Blue-Ray definitely looks better, but as I think I mentioned before, sometimes it almost appears to turn the movie into a video game. "More real than real".

As far as when will Blu-Ray take over, I'd say either when sausages fly (under their own power) or when humans turn into computers, whichever occurs first.

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It'll be streaming or digital copies downloaded to a drive hooked up to your tv and that's pretty much it. Special features will be available as well for an extra (small) fee. DVDs and Blu-Rays will struggle desperately as video stores go out of business and the cost of producing, distributing and marketing a DVD will be greater than the actual sales. Compared to the costs of streaming or a direct download and the suits will only see dollar signs and market the ***** out of it. New physical copies will be gone the way of the Dodo, people are getting more lazy by the minute (not us here, just everyone else) and so-called convenience will eventually win despite a few holdovers swearing they'll buy ten copies each of Transformers 5 just to keep it going. I give it a bit over five years, maybe ten but that's pushing it.

Okay, this won't really happen. The world will end Decemeber 21st, 2012.

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I pretty much agree with HarryLime, when bandwidth becomes less of an issue, then the convenience of download content will most likely prevail. Yes there are drawbacks and aspects of it consumers will not like, but if the market did what most consumers wanted, then we would still probably be buying VHS. Slowly but surely all mediums are offering more and more download services; Xbox Live, Playstation Network, streaming videos from the net.

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...uh the post is up there...

DVD case > little icon in computer

Agreed, but it doesn't matter.

That's interesting both ways (whether it's spot-on or a crock), but I have lots of relatives who don't care about movies any way near as much as I do, but they are utterly fixated on buying DVDs even if they only watch them once or twice. Maybe they'll change their spots but I think you're going to have to go through a generation or two to get "collectors" (consumers) to change their minds, and Holden never will!!

Hands up who has super fast (say 20meg+) broadband?

Obviously we're posting on an internet forum so the chances will be higher than the ordinary Tom, Dick or Mervyn on the mythical 'street'. Most people I know in the real world have 8meg (and nowhere near unlimited in terms of downloads) and I live in a region with supposedly one of the highest broadband catchment areas on the planet. What speeds must Third World countries like Scotland have?

How long would it take to download a full HD movie on an 8meg line? How much will the average Joe or Dympna pay for a big external hard drive because they still shop in chain stores and don't trust the likes of Amazon? Will Joe or Dympna have a TV with a USB port or will they have to buy either a games console like the PS3 (with *cough* one of the best Blu Ray drives on the market built in), a media centre PC or some sort of HD media player middleman?

A lot of things have to hit their sweet spot before movie companies make such a dramatic shift. We've seen it in the music industry (and CDs still hog the shelves) but a song is only a couple of MB.

I dunno guys, I can see HD streaming becoming more and more dominant each day. I don't really like the idea of keeping films on a drive, specially since it is not like them to break down like Yoda's did, but I think for rental purposes, they are a really good way to decide whether or not you want to a buy the film you've just seen. I think most people have films they aren't necessarily proud of when looking at their collection. I think HD Streaming could be a good way to ensure you buy the films you are likely to watch again and again.

I just don't want to see the day where you can't even buy an actual, physical DVD/Blu-ray movie anymore --- where it all has to be paid and downloaded to your own computer or something. I hope that doesn't happen. I hate buying music files from iTunes and places like that. It annoys me that they put limits on how many computers you can put the files on (they do this, right? I honestly don't buy much music from the internet because I hate the practice. I love buying actual things -- CDs, movies, things that come in cases.)

I need things on shelves, not on drives. Even if those things get on my nerves at times because I've got too much of it and it's clutter. At least I'll have something to straighten up, alphabetize if I need to, dust, admire, grab and take to places. If I was an Egyptian king, obviously I'd need my Blu-rays and things with me in my tomb so I can use them in the afterlife. Imagine the frustration dead Egyptian kings and pharaohs would have to put up with these days -- surrounded by a couple of computers and external drives, which won't survive for 1,000 years, maybe not even 1,000 days. It probably won't be easy to stream Cliffhanger in the year 3683, but maybe there will be a device that can get the Blu-ray to work again, providing my archaeologist who discovers me brings one to the tomb and everything transfers well to my afterlife world.

It already saddens me to see most video rental stores out of business. I hardly ever see movie stores anymore, where you can find all kinds of DVDs and other things to buy. Suncoast, Sam Goody -- all things from the past. Well, there is FYE, last survivor of the movie stores and the Nostromo, but by 2020, it'll probably be D.O.A.

*sigh*

Well, I was kind of joking around in an alarmist sort of way just for fun, especially with my timeline for the extinction of the disc. Still, come 2020 I doubt the physical copy will be still a viable option. Except maybe, as Tacitus mentioned, for the third world countries like Scotland, but that's what blank DVDs are for and bootlegs will cover that angle.

As for downloading speeds, they seem to be getting faster all the time, don't they? Considering the rate that technology increases in power soon will make it a non-issue. I mean, right now I can download a full movie to watch on my computer in like 20 minutes if enough people are seeding it.

Everyone knows that by 2020 we'll be going to work on jetpacks, subsist on a diet of space toothpaste and quorn and movies will be beamed directly into our brains. Robots will do our ironing and the 8-Track will have been introduced to Scotland.

To mass protests.

I had to look up what quorn was.

Yep.

I use Netflix streaming, over my computer, 360 and PS3.

I haven't bought a DVD or a blu-ray at nearly the same rate at which I used to in the past. That being said, the only real benefit of a tangible disk is portability, like if you want to take a movie to a friend's house or in my case show a film to a class I'm teaching.

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its way too expensive right now. when prices go down for blu-ray players / blu-ray discs the populairity will rise.. though if they really want to push blu-ray through they shouldnt announce any new technologies any time soon, because people will wait for it.

It sounds like HD streaming may become ubiquitous before Blu-Ray ever gets ultra-popular, but I hope people don't resort to just streaming. Don't people like owning an actual copy of the movie for their library? I know I do and I love the feeling of popping in a DVD.

And computer screens are too small and you can't sit in your living room in a comfy chair. I must admit I'm guilty of downloading movies on the web when I couldn't find a copy or the film was out of print, but I just CANNOT watch a movie on my computer.

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"I want a film I watch to express either the joy of making cinema or the anguish of making cinema" -Francois Truffaut

When I have a choice of picking a blu-ray or a DVD I will always go with a Blu-Ray. The quality of sound and picture is so much better. Now I always don't have that choice to make because certain movies have not released on Blu-Ray. Is there a reason for that? Also the price for a blu-ray which has already been discussed on this thread is so much higher which can make it difficult for me to purchase but my parents always make me shop for the best prices online if I want to purchase one. I wish that they would just stick with one thing and live with it but I know that will never happen cuz technology is always growing.