Same Mendes won the DGA Award last night making him the prohibitive favorite to win the Oscar for Best Director. Of all the guilds and other awards shows nothing is as reliable a predictor as to who will win the corresponding Academy Award as the Directors Guild of America. Since 1950 these two awards have not matched only seven times. Seven out of sixty-eight is 90%. Some of these "predictors" from other shows and ceremonies hover much closer to 50% and 60% accuracy. Don't bet against the DGA.
Of those seven discrepancies in nearly seven decades three were even stranger anomalies in that the DGA winner wasn't even nominated for the Oscar. Those were Steven Spielberg for The Color Purple (Sydney Pollack won the Oscar for Out of Africa), Ron Howard for Apollo 13 (Mel Gibson won the Oscar for Braveheart), and Ben Affleck for Argo (Ang Lee won the Oscar for Life of Pi). Which means when the DGA winner is nominated for the Best Director Oscar they have won all but four times in sixty-eight years! Now you're up to 94% accurate.
Sam Mendes of course is nominated for both which means you are going against some serious history if you bet against him winning Oscar gold.
The four instances where the DGA winner was nominated for but lost the Oscar were 1968 when Anthony Harvey won the DGA for The Lion in Winter and Carol Reed the Oscar for Oliver!, 1972 when Francis Ford Coppola won the DGA for The Godfather but Bob Fosse the Oscar for Cabaret, 2000 when Ang Lee won the DGA for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon and Steven Soderbergh the Oscar for Traffic, and 2002 when Rob Marshall earned the DGA for Chicago but Roman Polanski got the Oscar in absentia for The Pianist. Quentin Tarantino or Bong Joon-Ho could hear their names called Oscar night and be added to that very short list, but it is a bad bet against the house. Ballsy to go for it, though!
__________________
"Film is a disease. When it infects your bloodstream it takes over as the number one hormone. It bosses the enzymes, directs the pineal gland, plays Iago to your psyche. As with heroin, the antidote to Film is more Film." - Frank Capra
"Film is a disease. When it infects your bloodstream it takes over as the number one hormone. It bosses the enzymes, directs the pineal gland, plays Iago to your psyche. As with heroin, the antidote to Film is more Film." - Frank Capra
Last edited by Holden Pike; 04-12-21 at 04:03 PM.