As always, Pike, you're very insightful in your reasoning and deductions as to the front-runners for the Oscars.
Seems to me Avatar may have a powerful advantage because of its cutting edge computerized special effects, which may be the wave of the future. Or possibly there could be a backlash because what you see on the screen are computer images, not real actors (yeah, I know the facial features are wonderful but it's still a computer image). How much is acting and how much is Memorex?
Plus there's another element that could be an influencing factor. From what I've read (I haven't seen the film), most of the humans come across as mean exploitive SOBs. Well, maybe that flies in Hollywood. Or maybe some folks are getting tired of being always depicted as the bad guys.
There could be an element of resistance to Avatar on those two counts--whether there would be enough to tip the balance of voting, I don't know. It wouldn't be the first time a box-office hit was passed over at the rewards ceremony--big money-makers sometimes generate a jealous backlash, too. Plus the female director could be a politically correct justification to vote for The Hurt Locker.
Bottom line, it seems Avatar could have a near-even chance of either winning big or losing big.
Seems to me Avatar may have a powerful advantage because of its cutting edge computerized special effects, which may be the wave of the future. Or possibly there could be a backlash because what you see on the screen are computer images, not real actors (yeah, I know the facial features are wonderful but it's still a computer image). How much is acting and how much is Memorex?
Plus there's another element that could be an influencing factor. From what I've read (I haven't seen the film), most of the humans come across as mean exploitive SOBs. Well, maybe that flies in Hollywood. Or maybe some folks are getting tired of being always depicted as the bad guys.
There could be an element of resistance to Avatar on those two counts--whether there would be enough to tip the balance of voting, I don't know. It wouldn't be the first time a box-office hit was passed over at the rewards ceremony--big money-makers sometimes generate a jealous backlash, too. Plus the female director could be a politically correct justification to vote for The Hurt Locker.
Bottom line, it seems Avatar could have a near-even chance of either winning big or losing big.