We're a mere 6 weeks from the end of the year, with a number of awards bodies -- Indie Spirits, National Board of Review, Gotham Awards, then Golden Globes, AFI, and Critics' Choice -- announcing their nominees or winners soon and practically every film in contention except for The Post and Phantom Thread now seen by critics, prognosticators, and/or festival audiences. So it seems time for awards junkies (who, like me, typically think the Academy's taste is middlebrow to the point of mockery, but can't help watching anyway) to talk Oscars.
It's a tough year without a clear front runner I think, sometimes something like The Artist or Slumdog Millionaire is an obvious juggernaut from Summer on (and there is still a chance that could be Dunkirk) and sometimes it's tough to parse with a lot of splits like Spotlight/The Revenant/The Big Short in 2015 where even the night of the ceremony most couldn't predict a winner. But the films and performances seriously vying for awards have revealed themselves and a number of films, worthy and not, that are smaller or more difficult than the Academy typically acknowledges seem to have a serious chance this year.
Here's my Oscar predictions for the main 8 categories as of this week. I've broken them into surest bets, strong contenders, and long shots for most categories and ranked them by likelihood. Note your own predictions, or any particular film or performance you think I left out or am crazy for thinking has a shot below. As the Oscar race continues, we can update and also discuss the snubs, politics, eventual winners, what should have won, etc.
BEST PICTURE
Surest bets
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Darkest Hour
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
The Post
Strong contenders
Lady Bird
Call Me By Your Name
The Florida Project
Mudbound (right now I'd say these first 9 are our likely nominees)
Get Out
Serious possibilities
Phantom Thread
I, Tonya
The Big Sick
Molly's Game
The Greatest Showman
Long shots
The Disaster Artist
Wonder
Wonder Woman
Blade Runner: 2049
Downsizing
BEST DIRECTOR
Surest bets
Christopher Nolan -Dunkirk
Guillermo Del Toro -The Shape of Water
Steven Spielberg -The Post
Luca Guadagnino -Call Me By Your Name
Joe Wright -Darkest Hour
Strong contenders
Martin McDonagh -Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Greta Gerwig -Lady Bird
Dee Rees -Mudbound
Paul Thomas Anderson -Phantom Thread
Jordan Peele -Get Out
Long shots
Sean Baker -The Florida Project
Patty Jenkins -Wonder Woman
Michael Gracey -The Greatest Showman
Denis Villeneuve -Blade Runner 2049
James Franco -The Disaster Artist
BEST ACTOR
Surest bets
Gary Oldman -Darkest Hour
Daniel Day-Lewis -Phantom Thread
James Franco -The Disaster Artist
Tom Hanks -The Post
Timothee Chalamet -Call Me By Your Name
Strong contenders
Jake Gyllenhaal -Stronger
Andrew Garfield -Breathe
Hugh Jackman -The Greatest Showman
Christian Bale -Hostiles
Daniel Kaluuya -Get Out
Long shots
Robert Pattinson -Good Time
Harry Dean Stanton -Lucky
Denzel Washington -Roman J Israel, Esq.
Matt Damon -Downsizing
Steve Carrell -Last Flag Flying or Battle of the Sexes
BEST ACTRESS
Surest bets
Frances McDormand -Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Sally Hawkins -The Shape of Water
Margot Robbie -I, Tonya
Meryl Streep -The Post
Saoirse Ronan -Lady Bird
Strong contenders
Jessica Chastain -Molly's Game
Kate Winslet -Wonder Wheel
Judi Dench -Victoria & Abdul
Emma Stone -Battle of the Sexes
Annette Bening -Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool
Long shots
Brooklyn Prince -The Florida Project
Vicky Krieps -Phantom Thread
Carey Mulligan -Mudbound
Lois Smith -Marjorie Prime
Jennifer Lawrence -mother!
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Surest bets
Willem Dafoe -The Florida Project
Sam Rockwell -Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Armie Hammer -Call Me By Your Name
Richard Jenkins -The Shape of Water
Michael Stuhlbarg -Call Me By Your Name
Strong contenders
Michael Shannon -The Shape of Water
Ben Mendehlson -Darkest Hour
Woody Harrelson -Three Billboards Outisde Ebbing, Missouri
Ray Romano -The Big Sick
Jason Mitchell -Mudbound
Long shots
Mark Rylance -Dunkirk
Dustin Hoffman -The Meyerowitz Stories
Bryan Cranston -Last Flag Flying
Idris Elba -Molly's Game
Jacob Tremblay -Wonder
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Surest bets
Alison Janney -I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf -Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer -The Shape of Water
Holly Hunter -The Big Sick
Kristin Scott Thomas -Darkest Hour
Strong contenders
Mary J Blige -Mudbound
Hong Chau -Downsizing
Melissa Leo -Novitiate
Lesley Manville -Phantom Thread
Carrie Coon - The Post
Long shots
Tatiana Maslany -Stronger
Claire Foy -Breathe
Bria Vinaite -The Florida Project
Catherine Keener -Get Out
Michelle Williams -All the Money in the World
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Surest bets
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
The Shape of Water
Darkest Hour
The Post
Get Out
Strong contenders
Lady Bird
Dunkirk
The Florida Project
The Big Sick
The Meyerowitz Stories
Long shots
Phantom Thread
The Greatest Showman
Downsizing
Coco
Wind River
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Surest bets
Call Me By Your Name
Mudbound
Molly's Game
The Disaster Artist
I, Tonya
Strong contenders
Breathe
Battle of the Sexes
Blade Runner 2049
First They Killed My Father
Wonderstruck
Long shots
All the Money in the World
Wonder
Wonder Woman
Last Flag Flying
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
As with American Sniper and Million Dollar Baby, Clint Eastwood's 15:17 to Paris could be a last minute addition that gets a lot of play (or it could be more like J Edgar, Gran Torino, Jersey Boys, Sully, etc. and get next to nothing). I'm counting it out for now while it's an unknown.
It's a tough year without a clear front runner I think, sometimes something like The Artist or Slumdog Millionaire is an obvious juggernaut from Summer on (and there is still a chance that could be Dunkirk) and sometimes it's tough to parse with a lot of splits like Spotlight/The Revenant/The Big Short in 2015 where even the night of the ceremony most couldn't predict a winner. But the films and performances seriously vying for awards have revealed themselves and a number of films, worthy and not, that are smaller or more difficult than the Academy typically acknowledges seem to have a serious chance this year.
Here's my Oscar predictions for the main 8 categories as of this week. I've broken them into surest bets, strong contenders, and long shots for most categories and ranked them by likelihood. Note your own predictions, or any particular film or performance you think I left out or am crazy for thinking has a shot below. As the Oscar race continues, we can update and also discuss the snubs, politics, eventual winners, what should have won, etc.
BEST PICTURE
Surest bets
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Darkest Hour
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
The Post
Strong contenders
Lady Bird
Call Me By Your Name
The Florida Project
Mudbound (right now I'd say these first 9 are our likely nominees)
Get Out
Serious possibilities
Phantom Thread
I, Tonya
The Big Sick
Molly's Game
The Greatest Showman
Long shots
The Disaster Artist
Wonder
Wonder Woman
Blade Runner: 2049
Downsizing
BEST DIRECTOR
Surest bets
Christopher Nolan -Dunkirk
Guillermo Del Toro -The Shape of Water
Steven Spielberg -The Post
Luca Guadagnino -Call Me By Your Name
Joe Wright -Darkest Hour
Strong contenders
Martin McDonagh -Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Greta Gerwig -Lady Bird
Dee Rees -Mudbound
Paul Thomas Anderson -Phantom Thread
Jordan Peele -Get Out
Long shots
Sean Baker -The Florida Project
Patty Jenkins -Wonder Woman
Michael Gracey -The Greatest Showman
Denis Villeneuve -Blade Runner 2049
James Franco -The Disaster Artist
BEST ACTOR
Surest bets
Gary Oldman -Darkest Hour
Daniel Day-Lewis -Phantom Thread
James Franco -The Disaster Artist
Tom Hanks -The Post
Timothee Chalamet -Call Me By Your Name
Strong contenders
Jake Gyllenhaal -Stronger
Andrew Garfield -Breathe
Hugh Jackman -The Greatest Showman
Christian Bale -Hostiles
Daniel Kaluuya -Get Out
Long shots
Robert Pattinson -Good Time
Harry Dean Stanton -Lucky
Denzel Washington -Roman J Israel, Esq.
Matt Damon -Downsizing
Steve Carrell -Last Flag Flying or Battle of the Sexes
BEST ACTRESS
Surest bets
Frances McDormand -Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Sally Hawkins -The Shape of Water
Margot Robbie -I, Tonya
Meryl Streep -The Post
Saoirse Ronan -Lady Bird
Strong contenders
Jessica Chastain -Molly's Game
Kate Winslet -Wonder Wheel
Judi Dench -Victoria & Abdul
Emma Stone -Battle of the Sexes
Annette Bening -Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool
Long shots
Brooklyn Prince -The Florida Project
Vicky Krieps -Phantom Thread
Carey Mulligan -Mudbound
Lois Smith -Marjorie Prime
Jennifer Lawrence -mother!
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Surest bets
Willem Dafoe -The Florida Project
Sam Rockwell -Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Armie Hammer -Call Me By Your Name
Richard Jenkins -The Shape of Water
Michael Stuhlbarg -Call Me By Your Name
Strong contenders
Michael Shannon -The Shape of Water
Ben Mendehlson -Darkest Hour
Woody Harrelson -Three Billboards Outisde Ebbing, Missouri
Ray Romano -The Big Sick
Jason Mitchell -Mudbound
Long shots
Mark Rylance -Dunkirk
Dustin Hoffman -The Meyerowitz Stories
Bryan Cranston -Last Flag Flying
Idris Elba -Molly's Game
Jacob Tremblay -Wonder
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Surest bets
Alison Janney -I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf -Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer -The Shape of Water
Holly Hunter -The Big Sick
Kristin Scott Thomas -Darkest Hour
Strong contenders
Mary J Blige -Mudbound
Hong Chau -Downsizing
Melissa Leo -Novitiate
Lesley Manville -Phantom Thread
Carrie Coon - The Post
Long shots
Tatiana Maslany -Stronger
Claire Foy -Breathe
Bria Vinaite -The Florida Project
Catherine Keener -Get Out
Michelle Williams -All the Money in the World
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Surest bets
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
The Shape of Water
Darkest Hour
The Post
Get Out
Strong contenders
Lady Bird
Dunkirk
The Florida Project
The Big Sick
The Meyerowitz Stories
Long shots
Phantom Thread
The Greatest Showman
Downsizing
Coco
Wind River
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Surest bets
Call Me By Your Name
Mudbound
Molly's Game
The Disaster Artist
I, Tonya
Strong contenders
Breathe
Battle of the Sexes
Blade Runner 2049
First They Killed My Father
Wonderstruck
Long shots
All the Money in the World
Wonder
Wonder Woman
Last Flag Flying
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
As with American Sniper and Million Dollar Baby, Clint Eastwood's 15:17 to Paris could be a last minute addition that gets a lot of play (or it could be more like J Edgar, Gran Torino, Jersey Boys, Sully, etc. and get next to nothing). I'm counting it out for now while it's an unknown.
Last edited by Kilgore Trout; 11-18-17 at 07:43 PM.