Oscar Best Picture Speculation 2011?

OK, we're a little over two weeks out from the Oscar nominations being announced (January 25th), and with the Golden Globes coming this weekend and with most of the major critics associations already done with their awards, time for some educated guesses on what'll make the final Academy cut.

Remember, they are still doing the TEN Best Picture nominees, same as last year. Not a lot of history with this many contenders, or on how to handicap the ten that'll make the final ballot. Last year it was a very mixed bag: Avatar, The Blind Side, District 9, An Education, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, A Serious Man, Up and Up in the Air. With only one such recent sample, it is impossible to know if that is going to be a representative mix of tones, styles and box office returns year in and year out, but use it as a template, I guess.


This so this is what I'll go for, I reckon...

Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
127 Hours
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone


I'd say six or seven of those I'm very confident about. The others....really can't tell. Save for Toy Story 3 and The King's Speech (and I suppose The Kids Are All Right), it's a pretty dark and dour list, tone wise. And that's fine by me, but I can easily see the Academy membership trying to lighten it up a bit, faced with such a list. Problem is there isn't a clear-cut Blind Side or even Up in the Air among the hopefuls. Would something like Eat Pray Love, Country Strong or Love and Other Drugs get thrown on there just for the sake of something a little more mainstream and dramady-like, even though they weren't especially successful, financially or critically? I hope not, yet it wouldn't completely shock me, either.

My ninth and tenth slots were the toughest to fill. I went with Winter's Bone and 127 Hours over the likes of The Town, Get Low, Rabbit Hole and Blue Valentine.

Figuring which five of the nine or ten likely candidates in years past were going to get those five final spots was hard enough, but in some ways I think nailing the ten out of twenty or so likely nominees is even harder. Can almost guarantee you'll get six or even seven correct now, but ten?!? I don't think anybody really thought District 9 had even a small shot last year, so it'll be interesting to see if there's a pick this time that is as far afield.


So anybody else wanna go for a guess of the ten nominees?

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Man, I really need to see The King's Speech. It sure sounds good. I like your picks for the most part. I didn't love 127 Hours but I think I could see it getting a nomination. Franco may be a shoe in for Best Actor, or maybe it will be one of those times where he gets noticed simply because the film gets a nom. Hard to say. I guess we'll find out in a few weeks.

I've got several to watch tonight and this weekend and then I'll put a more thoughtful post together.

Inception, The Social Network, Black Swan, Toy Story 3 (even though I think it pales in comparison to that little Dragon movie) and The King's Speech will definitely be my first five, but I need to see a few more before I throw a few shots in the dark out.

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Ive seen them all except for The Kings Speech and Winters Bone. If those are the nominations I would probably guess Black Swan. Ill have to check out the other two really soon.

The only one I haven't seen out of the above lists would also be The King's Speech. I definitely agree with the above lists. Inception was a great movie, even though Leo didn't seem to make the nominations list for his part in it, and Toy Story 3 was a great finale to the long-awaited trilogy. I have to say that I foresee an Eat Pray Love nomination in the future? Julia Roberts was great in the film, and the novel was also a best seller. I could see that making the list easily for an inspirational film for 2010.
Just out of curiosity, did anyone else think that District 9 did not deserve a nomination last year?

District 9 totally did deserve a nomination. It was creative, original, and thought provoking. Avatar didn't deserve the nomination if anything.

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Black Swan
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
Rabbit Hole
The Fighter
Inception
Get Low
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
True Grit

Tough. It's weird making the list and still having Blue Valentine, The Town, Winter's Bone, and 127 Hours left out. I am definitely more intrigued to see the official selections now.

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Aside from making me slightly nauseous while viewing, District 9 didn't seem to fulfill all the potential it was capable of. True, it was original and thought provoking, but the story-line was very poorly done and extremely unrealistic. The execution of this film seemed to be a spin off of the Blair Witch Project.

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The Producer's Guild went with Holden's list except it replaced The Town for Winter's Bone. I actually believe that pretty much limits us to 11 choices for Best Picture this year. If I HAD to predict, I'd probably go with that Producers Guild list.

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127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winters Bone

Gotta agree with Holden's entire post. The (likely) shoo-ins:

Black Swan
Inception
The Social Network
True Grit
The Fighter
The King's Speech

After that it's a lot harder to say, but among the less obvious choices I'll go with:

Toy Story 3
127 Hours
Winter's Bone (if I'm wrong, I'll be upset, but if I am it'll be The Kids Are All Right in it's place, I think).

You only named nine there. And I think Toy Story 3 and The Kids Are All Right are just about sure things. True Grit is more on the bubble than either of them. I'd be disappointed if it didn't make the cut, but not shocked.

Ah, me am can't count. I'll say Winter's Bone and The Kids Are All Right both make it, then.

What bums me is that even if they all make it, we won't know whether or not Toy Story 3 was a shoo-in or a bubble selection, etc. I'd be fascinated if they'd release that information -- say, a few years after each awards show, so as not to tip off the outcomes. Is that too much to ask?

I still think Exit Through The Gift Shop was the best film of the year.

If Inception wins Best Picture I'm going to throw up in my mouth a little.

I bet they'll even nominate it.

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I don't understand what you typed. Did you leave a word out of your second sentence?

Mark, you know full well not to ask Gunny for any elaboration on any opinion issued. If you want an explanation (or even a response) you have to agree with him first.

I think you're mistaking Avatar for District 9. Did we watch the same movie? Sure, the thought of aliens being stranded on Earth, is a little far-fetched, but so is humans going to some far off planet and posing as big blue creatures that can sync with the planet.

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Disctrict 9 = Blair Witch Project 3: Book Of Shadows in Africa? Are you high?

^^ No, I'm definitely not mistaking this film for Avatar. It wasn't necessary the thought of aliens being stranded on Earth that made the film unrealistic. It was the rest of the story-line and plot, that followed the conventions of an exaggerated movie. Some parts of this can be seen as what would occur if aliens were really stranded here, but I cannot see it be taken so far out of control that the government would lose control of people over invaders. However, experimental testing on alien subjects is highly realistic.

I never claimed that this is something we know of, and maybe Avatar's plot is unrealistic, but it is in the genre of fantasy. District 9 is a film that most look to, yes as sci-fi, but also as a film where we look to see what we believe the world would do in reaction to something, like alien invaders, that is a probable even in the universe in the future. I think movies like Signs portray alien invasion in a more realistic sense, and don't make it seem as though we would have compassion and governmental laws regarding those who put our lives in danger.

Furthermore, as a side note, their weaponry doesn't seem too highly advanced. This, Roger Ebert agrees with. Sure, they have powerful guns, but we have weapons with extraordinary effects as well. For having the capabilities to travel the universe, they sure don't seem that highly advanced.

And, if your referring to me, I certainly was not claiming that this movie was directly relatable to the plot of this Blair Witch movie. I mean the general overview and camera sequence, which you could tell if you read my comment into context.