Oscar Best Picture Speculation 2011?

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Follow this: most of the plot is overdone to make the audience gasp with horror, or to draw them into identifying with the main character, who seems to be the only one on the run from persecution of the government or an alien race.
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"HeeHaw"



I did read your comment. Just because camerawork uses the tool of being "found footage" doesn't make it Blair Witch theft. The overview is more like a news documentary, completely different.

Follow this: most of the plot is overdone to make the audience gasp with horror, or to draw them into identifying with the main character, who seems to be the only one on the run from persecution of the government or an alien race.
Plot is never overdone. Plot is hardly in any story. It's all what characters do. District 9 wasn't using shock tactics to make you gasp, if anything it was the realistic representation of what those characters would do in that situation that was surprising. You're only supposed to identify with the main character on the grounds that you don't want to think you'd act like him, but you just might, and it "seems" like he's the only one on the run because its HIS STORY. It's not about government runaways. You're perceiving the film in a way just so you won't enjoy or understand it.



Yes, we are following HIS story. But, the government is indeed after him, and after all the others that this has happened to. They heighten the situation to follow this man, which is indeed what other films do when you're following the main character, but any situation that is unfamiliar could be coined as surprising. Just because it is different does not make the film the most realistic. We may not know what we would do in a given situation, but you're wrong if you think most thriller/scary movies don't purposely add in climactic events to make the audience gasp. The aim of this film is to be a tad unrealistic and far-fetched. However, I meant that other films felt more like real life scenarios based on real-life reactions to horrifying events that have actually taken place in our society. The only true thing this movie shows is chaos, which would probably not be dealt with in the way of letting an alien race continue to populate until they outnumber us. Doesn't seem too smart does it?



I honestly have no idea what you're arguing here, so I'll just address the last part: the aliens were left to populate because this isn't Independence Day, where they're all just evil and we're trying to eradicate them. They are intelligent to a degree, so we obviously decided (in this film) that it would be wrong to simply destroy them. So we end up walling them off, which causes other problems. It's meant to symbolize aparetheid in Africa.

I also have no idea how any of this explains why the film is like The Blair With Project. The only connection I see is the "found footage" angle, which is a pretty superficial connection.



This also has nothing to do with this year's Oscars, but hey, carry on!
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We are both the source of the problem and the solution, yet we do not see ourselves in this light...



I don't see how you could not understand my argument. True, in the film, we find it wrong to simply get rid of them. But, do you really believe that we would not save ourselves, and not worry more about our own population when they get out of control? Sorry, I don't think most would agree with you there.

And i won't get into the politics of it representing the apartheid in Africa. That may be you looking too far into it....

And by the Blair Witch comment, I meant the filmmaking conventions were the same..... WHich they are, unless you don't know what that means. NOT the plot... again.. repeating myself.



I don't see how you could not understand my argument. True, in the film, we find it wrong to simply get rid of them. But, do you really believe that we would not save ourselves, and not worry more about our own population when they get out of control? Sorry, I don't think most would agree with you there.
Your argument consists of random assumptions about the circumstances of the society which hold no water if only because the only thing you really come back to is population control whereas everything else you mentioned is fluff. Also, you're comparing an alien population of around 100-200 to 6.5 billion humans. You really think they're out of control?

And i won't get into the politics of it representing the apartheid in Africa. That may be you looking too far into it....
It's rather blatant that it's about that

And by the Blair Witch comment, I meant the filmmaking conventions were the same..... WHich they are, unless you don't know what that means. NOT the plot... again.. repeating myself.
The filmmaking conventions were not the same, and I know exactly what that means because in the making of Blair Witch, they released some dude with a group of actors in the forest with a vague plot line and said go. District 9, amongst numerous other films that use "found footage" as a template for shooting style, was meticulously planned and arranged, not to mention far more involved in camera work, effects, sounds especially, and its implementation of news breaks.



You're referring to the plot of those two movies. Not movie conventions. I suggest you do some research.

To further elaborate: Conventions are ways in which films are constructed, and the elements that factor into certain GENRES... not the plot. just fyi



And I won't assume I know what the directors had in mind while making this film. Apartheid is a controversial topic that may or may not be represented here. Anybody could make an argument for something else, that is strictly your opinion.



It was pretty common knowledge even before the film was released that there was a connection to the apartheid in South Africa in the film's story. I suggest you do some research. just fyi
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I don't see how you could not understand my argument. True, in the film, we find it wrong to simply get rid of them. But, do you really believe that we would not save ourselves, and not worry more about our own population when they get out of control? Sorry, I don't think most would agree with you there.
Worry more than what? The people in the film seemed plenty worried, but what should they have done? Murdered them? The whole point of the movie is that there was no good way to deal with things unless they were willing to commit genocide.

And i won't get into the politics of it representing the apartheid in Africa. That may be you looking too far into it....
It isn't. It's incredibly obvious. It's set in the same place, and the director is from South Africa. It parallels apartheid directly. I can go Googling around to find the director himself saying this somewhere, most likely, but I shouldn't have to.

I don't mean to be rude here, but please look into this a little before you start contradicting people.

And by the Blair Witch comment, I meant the filmmaking conventions were the same..... WHich they are, unless you don't know what that means. NOT the plot... again.. repeating myself.
Er, I know. This is exactly what I said when I first disagreed with you: that the style of filming is a very superficial way of comparing them, because "found footage" and handheld cameras are common.



Valentine's Day
Marmaduke
The Last Airbender
I Spit on Your Grave
Paranormal Activity 2
Yogi Bear
Hot Tub Time Machine
Grown Ups
Step Up 3D
Nanny McPhee Returns

Winner: Hot Tub Time Machine



You're referring to the plot of those two movies. Not movie conventions. I suggest you do some research.

To further elaborate: Conventions are ways in which films are constructed, and the elements that factor into certain GENRES... not the plot. just fyi
Oh hey that's everything I just said



"The filmmaking conventions were not the same, and I know exactly what that means because in the making of Blair Witch, they released some dude with a group of actors in the forest with a vague plot line and said go. District 9, amongst numerous other films that use "found footage" as a template for shooting style, was meticulously planned and arranged, not to mention far more involved in camera work, effects, sounds especially, and its implementation of news breaks."

Oh hey, pretty sure that describes the ways in which the films were made, not conventions. But, everyone can have their own opinion. Sorry if I upset anyone..... if you can't accept that I didn't like the film, sorry. Hope it satisfied you all...



Please look up the word "conventions." It refers to any standard practice in any field. If you're going to use words in semi-arbitrary ways, you'll have to be prepared that this will generate some mild confusion.

That said, it sounds like you're basically acknowledging what I said, like, four posts ago: that the only similarity you used to compare them was the use of a handheld camera, which is a very superficial, broad comparison. It's like comparing movies with "The" in the title.



In film studies, this is not what conventions means. Unless every major film school in the country teaches otherwise. Can't argue with someone who can't admit they're wrong.



1) We're not all film students, so if your particular film class defines the word a certain way, some of us would need to be told that, since it's an actual dictionary word with a broader meaning.

2) "Every major film school in the country"? Are you attending more than one?

3) My disagreement with you isn't based on your use of the word "conventions," it's with what you're saying about those conventions. I've said a few times that this comparison is very superficial and broad, but you keep glossing over it for some reason.

4) Take it easy with the "can't admit they're wrong" thing. Last night you were actually disputing the idea that District 9 was about apartheid, so you'll have to forgive me if I'm a tad skeptical of some of the other things you're saying.



Ha, no not more than one. But I do know many people from other schools that say the same. It's not hard to know what film schools define a term as. This isn't my opinion.

Yes, it may have a broader meaning, and I'm sorry for that, since I have never looked at it so broadly. Conventions refers to what places a film in a specific genre. For example, obviously, a horror film would have different conventions than a comedy. Specific tactics, uses of plot structure, and thematic elements are included in this.



My speculated list looks similar to yours with a few changes:

Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
127 Hours
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Tangled
True Grit
Blue Valentine
The Town

OK, we're a little over two weeks out from the Oscar nominations being announced (January 25th), and with the Golden Globes coming this weekend and with most of the major critics associations already done with their awards, time for some educated guesses on what'll make the final Academy cut.

Remember, they are still doing the TEN Best Picture nominees, same as last year. Not a lot of history with this many contenders, or on how to handicap the ten that'll make the final ballot. Last year it was a very mixed bag: Avatar, The Blind Side, District 9, An Education, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, A Serious Man, Up and Up in the Air. With only one such recent sample, it is impossible to know if that is going to be a representative mix of tones, styles and box office returns year in and year out, but use it as a template, I guess.


This so this is what I'll go for, I reckon...

Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
127 Hours
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone


I'd say six or seven of those I'm very confident about. The others....really can't tell. Save for Toy Story 3 and The King's Speech (and I suppose The Kids Are All Right), it's a pretty dark and dour list, tone wise. And that's fine by me, but I can easily see the Academy membership trying to lighten it up a bit, faced with such a list. Problem is there isn't a clear-cut Blind Side or even Up in the Air among the hopefuls. Would something like Eat Pray Love, Country Strong or Love and Other Drugs get thrown on there just for the sake of something a little more mainstream and dramady-like, even though they weren't especially successful, financially or critically? I hope not, yet it wouldn't completely shock me, either.

My ninth and tenth slots were the toughest to fill. I went with Winter's Bone and 127 Hours over the likes of The Town, Get Low, Rabbit Hole and Blue Valentine.

Figuring which five of the nine or ten likely candidates in years past were going to get those five final spots was hard enough, but in some ways I think nailing the ten out of twenty or so likely nominees is even harder. Can almost guarantee you'll get six or even seven correct now, but ten?!? I don't think anybody really thought District 9 had even a small shot last year, so it'll be interesting to see if there's a pick this time that is as far afield.


So anybody else wanna go for a guess of the ten nominees?