Oscar's Best Director 2024

Are you not a fan of Nolan's Batman movie trilogy? I'm not a huge proponent of the genre as a whole, but even in my opinion, it's the best comic book movie series that I've ever seen, and the closest to real filmmaking. To me, it's a genuinely impressive accomplishment.

As expected, Christopher Nolan won The Directors Guild of America's Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Motion Pictures award Saturday night for Oppenheimer. This makes him the overwhelming favorite to win the Best Director Oscar. Of all the guilds and other awards shows, nothing is as reliable a predictor as to who will win the corresponding Academy Award as the Directors Guild of America. Since 1950 these two awards have not matched only eight times. Eight out of seventy-two is 89%. Some of these "predictors" from other awards shows and ceremonies hover much closer to 50% and 60% accuracy. It is not usually smart to bet against the DGA.

Of those eight discrepancies in seven decades, three of them were even stranger anomalies in that the DGA winner wasn't even nominated for the Oscar. Those were Steven Spielberg for The Color Purple (Sydney Pollack won the Oscar for Out of Africa), Ron Howard for Apollo 13 (Mel Gibson won the Oscar for Braveheart), and Ben Affleck for Argo (Ang Lee won the Oscar for Life of Pi). Which means when the DGA winner is nominated for the Best Director Oscar they have won all but five times in seventy-two years! Now you're up to 93% accuracy.

Since Nolan is nominated for both, that means you are going against some serious history if you bet against him winning Oscar gold. It is worth pointing out that the DGA did have one of its ultra-rare misses just four ceremonies ago when they picked Sam Mendes (1917) for their top prize while the Oscar went to Bong Joon-Ho for Parasite. That was the first time the two prizes were different with the same eligible winner since 2002 when Rob Marshall earned the DGA for Chicago but Roman Polanski got the Oscar in absentia for The Pianist. The only other three misses in Oscar history were 1968 when Anthony Harvey won the DGA for The Lion in Winter and Carol Reed the Oscar for Oliver!, 1972 when Francis Ford Coppola won the DGA for The Godfather but Bob Fosse the Oscar for Cabaret, and 2000 when Ang Lee won the DGA for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon and Steven Soderbergh the Oscar for Traffic. When it happened two out of three years to open the 21st Century that was the closest the misses ever came grouped together.

Bong Joon-Ho is the truly rare exception to the rule, and if you had him in your Oscar pool you looked like a bonafide genius or a witch. But exceptions are just that. It would still be unwise to bet against anyone but Chris Nolan come Oscar night.

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"Film is a disease. When it infects your bloodstream it takes over as the number one hormone. It bosses the enzymes, directs the pineal gland, plays Iago to your psyche. As with heroin, the antidote to Film is more Film." - Frank Capra

What? I didn't name them because they are ubiquitous and need not be named.

Just saw Zone of interest so I have now seen four out of five of the nominees.

Just watched Poor Things and have now seen all five nominees. Still think Nolan is going to win.

Christopher Nolan now joins the ranks of Oscar winning filmmakers.