Well, everything's gone ballistic as usual... i'm gonna try and split my wee musings into sections for clarity...
Vietnam Parallels
Intriguing parallel you've spotted there Piddy, on the current bodycount front. Like you say, i'm sure the US will do anything to avoid things escalating like before - and the only thing that would cause a body count like that would be all-out war. (Which, unfortunately, is a possibility, in various forms).
Whenever Vietnam is brought up i tend to think of McNamara's point in The Fog of War about how the US had misunderstood their enemy and intervened in a foolish manner. IE The apparent fact that the Vietnamese would have fiercely resisted absorption by Red-China, seeing as China was a long-standing and hated enemy of theirs.
I can't help but feel there's been some comparable mistakes made here... and some new ones too... (the most notable being the apparent pursuit of a 'neocon' multi-fronted invade-and-convert policy)
The Rush to Peace
Well, part of the reason for people jumping on failures is the rush with which the admin has predicted success in the past. There have been verbal predictions from the political 'bandstand', such as...
“I think they're in the last throes, if you will, of the insurgency.” – Dick Cheney, May 31 2005.
(And i feel compelled to add... “If you look at what the dictionary says about throes, it can still be a violent period,” – Dick Cheney, June 23 2005 )
The most damning prediction of comparatively swift success was implicit however. It was implicit in the laughable troop numbers which Rumsfeld et al opted for, and the contingent lack of a decent post-war plan.
---
Incidently, i'm not sure the US-nation-building parallel entirely holds true. Iraqis are hardly unified by the 'pioneer spirit' which took all the various emigrees to the Americas in the first place. They haven't escaped the rigid geopolitical 'facts on the ground' of their homelands either. They're still living amongst them. It's a distinct type of dawn, it seems to me.
So why the hell wasn't it?
On a more constructive note, i do agree that a lasting democracy will be a great achievement, if it happens - but it's incredibly far from established as yet. It's a bit early to be waving the 'momentous accomplishment' flag, don't you think?
Changes on the Ground
The problem there is that any Kurdish movement towards founding a new state will cause aggression from both the rest of Iraq (who won't fancy losing the northern oil fields) and from the bordering countries with Kurdish populations - who will fear internal uprisings and probably increase their own internal Kurdish-repressions as well.
What's more, such a shift towards seperatism may encourage a split between Sunni and Shia - who may then align with countries nearby of the same denomination - or perhaps form their own states. Either way what you looking at is a recipe for war - possibly on multiple fronts.
So... the prob seems to be - is Kurdish separation possible without causing serious repurcussions for both them and others? Currently, it seems pretty unlikely.
Ay
Vietnam Parallels
Intriguing parallel you've spotted there Piddy, on the current bodycount front. Like you say, i'm sure the US will do anything to avoid things escalating like before - and the only thing that would cause a body count like that would be all-out war. (Which, unfortunately, is a possibility, in various forms).
Whenever Vietnam is brought up i tend to think of McNamara's point in The Fog of War about how the US had misunderstood their enemy and intervened in a foolish manner. IE The apparent fact that the Vietnamese would have fiercely resisted absorption by Red-China, seeing as China was a long-standing and hated enemy of theirs.
I can't help but feel there's been some comparable mistakes made here... and some new ones too... (the most notable being the apparent pursuit of a 'neocon' multi-fronted invade-and-convert policy)
The Rush to Peace
Originally Posted by Yoda
America took 13 to write and ratify its own constitution, and it devolved into Civil War at one point, but here we are. And yet people talk about these same things in Iraq as if they represented unmitigated failure.
In reality, such judgements are premature; not just by a month or a year, but by a decade.
In reality, such judgements are premature; not just by a month or a year, but by a decade.
“I think they're in the last throes, if you will, of the insurgency.” – Dick Cheney, May 31 2005.
(And i feel compelled to add... “If you look at what the dictionary says about throes, it can still be a violent period,” – Dick Cheney, June 23 2005 )
The most damning prediction of comparatively swift success was implicit however. It was implicit in the laughable troop numbers which Rumsfeld et al opted for, and the contingent lack of a decent post-war plan.
---
Incidently, i'm not sure the US-nation-building parallel entirely holds true. Iraqis are hardly unified by the 'pioneer spirit' which took all the various emigrees to the Americas in the first place. They haven't escaped the rigid geopolitical 'facts on the ground' of their homelands either. They're still living amongst them. It's a distinct type of dawn, it seems to me.
Originally Posted by Yoda
The establishment of any democracy (let alone one in the Middle East) is a momentous accomplishment, and a corresponding level of difficulty should be expected.
On a more constructive note, i do agree that a lasting democracy will be a great achievement, if it happens - but it's incredibly far from established as yet. It's a bit early to be waving the 'momentous accomplishment' flag, don't you think?
Changes on the Ground
Originally Posted by chicagofrog
1) i didn't say "favor one group and ignore the others" - where did you read that? surely *not* in my post. the other groups of course must be respected.
What's more, such a shift towards seperatism may encourage a split between Sunni and Shia - who may then align with countries nearby of the same denomination - or perhaps form their own states. Either way what you looking at is a recipe for war - possibly on multiple fronts.
So... the prob seems to be - is Kurdish separation possible without causing serious repurcussions for both them and others? Currently, it seems pretty unlikely.
Originally Posted by Piddzilla
The fact that the Kurds are no longer being discriminated and being treated as 3rd grade citizens in Iraq must be worth something.
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Last edited by Golgot; 03-21-06 at 07:14 PM.