The Non-Partisan Polling and Election Prediction Thread

They had something on CBS Sunday Morning about Nate Silver, a blogger and stats expert. Thought some might find this interesting.

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?...ag=mncol;lst;1

Yahoo is claiming Obama won already even though "no votes will be counted until election day"

Just an fyi from abroad, Belgian media are reporting Obama has pulled ahead by a few percents and is ahead in key swing states Ohio and Florida. They're basically stating it's Obama's election to lose. From Chris' latest replies, I reckon that's pretty accurate.

In other news, gun sales are skyrocketing

Gallup's tightened to Romney +1 (it was out of commission for awhile due to the Hurricane). Which means that, unless any other polls come out today, 10 of the 12 national polls on the RCP average will have the race within a point either way:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1171.html

Of those ten it's four at +1 Obama, three tied, three +1 Romney.

By the way, I got a robocall this morning that started with:

"Okay, this is the second script for Pennsylvania, Chuck. Second script."

I guess somebody rushed that out without editing.

So who do you think is going to win Yoda, Obama or Romney?

If Yods were on my ballot things would be easy,

This is literally a toss up - if the polls can be even slightly trusted.

If there is a landslide either way then ever poll taking establishment should be blackballed.

I personally think that this country is on the track to be greater than ever regardless of who wins - why? : because we are so divided we have to be balanced.

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“The gladdest moment in human life, methinks, is a departure into unknown lands.” – Sir Richard Burton

Probably Obama. I've thought that for a long time, and only briefly thought it might switch.

I think there's a 1-in-3 chance that the odd polling cross-tabs are indicative of a huge whiff and that Romney wins somewhat comfortably (his numbers among Independents don't seem very plausible if he's going to lose, so something's gotta give). But that naturally leaves a 2-in-3 chance that they aren't, which is substantial.

If Obama does win, and the cross-tabs are even remotely accurate, then we may be looking at a shift in political campaigning that's more focused on whipping up base enthusiasm. I hope not, because that doesn't seem likely to make for more high-minded, substantive campaigns, but it very well may be the new normal.

I've got Obama carrying the election with 290.

http://www.270towin.com/2012_electio...php?mapid=blYm

I will be drinking whiskey and coke if Romney wins. Straight whiskey if Obama wins.

Quick note on what to watch for tonight: if North Carolina doesn't go Romney early, you'll know he's probably lost. Ditto if he loses Virginia. If he wins Virginia narrowly we won't learn much either way. And if he takes it by several points or more, that would be your first inkling that something big may be afoot.

There are a few scenarios where it might come down to Colorado out West, but it's far more likely that we won't have to wait past the Eastern and Central closings to have a good idea.

Just watch Ohio, that is all that matters.

Obama is not going to win North Carolina.

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It reminds me of a toilet paper on the trees
- Paula

Will, your reign of terror in the Shoutbox with your big babies and bimbos ends TONIGHT!

You're a himbo aren't you?

We shall see.

If you had to pick a single state to follow, yeah, it'd be Ohio. But if you can walk and chew gum at the same time, you might find it interesting to monitor others. And Virginia's polls close before Ohio's, so we'll start getting those returns in first. They should probably rule out a few of the overall outcomes, barring a fluke.

If Ohio goes Obama, then you'll want to start looking at Wisconsin. All of Romney's most plausible non-Ohio routes involve Wisconsin.

Results are trickling in. Romney is way ahead of Obama in Indiana and Kentucky.

Yeah, nothing meaningful anywhere yet. Even the early returns are pretty useless without a county breakdown.

It's not looking bad for Romney right now, though.

Hard to say. What very limited info we have shows Obama roughly even with his '08 pace, but it's still a mix of exits and results. Haven't seem anything to make me think we'll see an upset, but nothing much firm either way yet.