Who will take on Obama in 2012?

His biggest flaw was his name.

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It reminds me of a toilet paper on the trees
- Paula

Except he could have sold awesome "I Heart Huckabee" bumper stickers.

It's official: Trump isn't running, though he hilariously claimed he would have won if he had. Which is absurd because it asks us to believe a) that the polls are completely wrong, b) that he would've survived the Republican primary given his shifting allegiances and damning quotes in the past, and c) that a man with an incredibly healthy ego would willingly pass up the opportunity to become the most powerful man in the world. Yeah, right.

Here's a post of mine from almost four months ago:

Glad we can put the silliness to bed.

From the LATImes:

If, as some suspected, Trump's supposed presidential aspirations were actually an attempt to goose ratings for his NBC series, the strategy may have backfired. According to data obtained by The Atlantic online, "Celebrity Apprentice" had one of the most liberal audiences on television, and viewership was declining as Trump's criticism of the president peaked.



This is what I think: It was mainly publicity, then he started taking it seriously when his poll numbers jumped, then Obama released his BC and he realized he had become a joke.

Newt Gingrich is being Newt Gingrich, the smartest guy in the room being too smart for his own good, but he is right. Republicans are idiots for supporting the Ryan Plan and that is why the Tea Party will be a disaster for Repubs. No way that plan would have been backed by the House if it wasn't for the ascendancy of the Tea Party. I wouldn't be surprised if the Republicans lose the House next year and if not, their lead will be much more narrow. Tea Party will be toast. Unless Daniels gets in it, it is looking more like Romney to me. He needs to get a little fire in his belly, otherwise I think he gets the nomination, but there will be a lot of struggle along the way as he becomes the last guy standing. Who else does the Party have? If he had a brain, he should stop worrying about attracting social conservatives in the primary, just don't alienate them, because the candidates that are left now that Huckabee is out are never going to get close to bagging the nomination with the exception of Sara Palin who I now think will pull a Huckabee. I am not sure, but I think Romnsy is being a little more himself this time (not completely) and has made a few thoughtful comments insted of just being a total phony red meat rightie like last time.

Yeah yeah, I know: more confident-sounding predictions about how the Tea Party is going to kill Republicans in the end. Still don't see the logic in it. Given the tremendous gains they saw in November, it's almost impossible for the Tea Party to be even a net negative for the Republicans, let alone a "disaster," barring a massive electoral collapse with implications stretching across the next several cycles. And predicting their House majority will lessen next cycle, if it happens, isn't evidence of this -- it's the normal way of things. Historically, yes, of course they should lose some seats the next time around, particularly after such stunning gains the last time around. That's not even unusual, let alone indicative of some grand collapse. Particularly if they're riding on the anti-coat tails of some weak Presidential nominee, which is fairly likely.

But, again, at most this would be a political argument. If the Ryan plan sinks Republicans in the short-term (and really, it would only be in the short-term), it's only because people are buying into the idea that Republicans are the ones that want to destroy Medicare; nevermind that ObamaCare guts it plenty (ditto for Medicaid). Stop looking at ObamaCare! Ryan plan! Ryan plan! Look over here! It's pretty shameless even by political standards.

As for the nomination: Huck getting out clarifies things immensely, I think. My money's on Pawlenty...unless Daniels runs. He has his own problems but I think it'd be a genuine race between the two of them. By which I don't mean that Romney wouldn't be in the middle, just that I still don't see how he gets past RomneyCare in the end.

At this point I think our last hope for a potentially exciting, viable candidate is Rick Perry. I know he's said he isn't running, but the latest word is that he's got some vague feelers out. And why shouldn't he, given how underwhelmed voters apparently still are with their options?

all things considered, was pretty funny that Obama chose to adress the nation Regarding the OBL thing at the same time teh Donald was in the boardroom about to drop the hammer on Latoya.

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"The greatest danger for most of us is not that our aim is too high and we miss it, but that it is too low and we reach it." - Michelangelo.

My biggest concern about Huckabee was that he's a former Baptist preacher, and the Baptist Church I was raised in could never resist passing the collection plate at the drop of a hat. I think Huckabee out of habit would be more tax-and-spend than Obama.

Being himself is Romney's biggest drawback. He's never gonna get the nomination if he doesn't totally denounce Romney-care.

He might not even get it then. But yeah, I agree. I know 9 out of 10 things point to him being the nominee, but ObamaCare is so radioactive to conservative voters right now (particularly the kind that get up and excited for a primary or a caucus) that I think it might wipe out all the other natural advantages he has. The only thing that gives me pause is how much money he's still raising; clearly, plenty of smart, influential people must think he's viable, if they're opening up their wallets like that.

At this stage I think Daniels announces soon, and it's either him or Pawlenty. At this point I would actually take Pawlenty/Daniels together against every other candidate for the nomination.

If Daniels isn't in, my money is still on Romney. Pawlenty has a chance, but if he doesn't catch on in Iowa he is toast and he is about as exciting as painting your house. McCain looked like he had no chance of getting the nomination with all the enemies he made. All the talk show righties hated him and look what happened. None of the other candidates with the exception of Palin have any chance of being nominated. If one of them does, Obama doesn't even have to campaign.

This is why the Tea Party is not good for the Republican Party.

http://www.aolnews.com/story/2012-co...n-gop/1816536/

I have no idea what part of that article is supposed to demonstrate that the Tea Party is not good for Republicans.

But, again: they helped Republicans win 63 freaking seats in November. They would have to do an unbelievable amount of damage to ever get to the point at which they won't have been a net positive for Republicans.

They aren't any good for Republicans because they are moaning about the power brokers not supporting a total loser like Bachmann (for President) and trying to find a candidate that could appeal to independents, which she can't do and being unruly and divisive. The Tea Party won in the House because Republicans, not voters in general turned sharply to the right. They don't know how to govern. Look at Wisconsin. Any Tea party candidates in cross over congressional districts will be defeated. Their victory will hurt Republicans in the long run more than their short term gains, particularly if Republicans are suicidal enough to actually nominate a Bachmann or what's-his-face from Pennsylvania (oh, Santorum). If they do, it will be a total rout, Democrats take the House back. But I don't think Republicans are going to do it. Unless Palin gets in it, the Tea Party candidates have no chance of winning even one primary, maybe a caucus here and there. (Gingrich had a remote chance, but not the way he's been campaigning). Looks like a race between slick Romney and nice, bland Pawlenty. I watched his speech just now at the Republican convention last time. I dunno. Nice guy, but ... He might catch on, but I still think Romney has the edge.

er Tea partiers are republicans though Will. Many would prefer to be called libertarian i'd imagine, but it matters not. In a 2 party system, Republican is where they reside.

So Daniels is out. I can't stand Pawlenty. I'm already jaded and it's May 2011.

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If I had a dollar for every existential crisis I've ever had, does money really even matter?

If Sarah Palin gets in and does something she has shown no interest in doing, softening her image and toning down her rhetoric, she could have a real chance of taking the nomination, but if she really wanted to do that, she should have already started and her bitchy comments about Obama not releasing the pictures suggest if she announces we get the usual Palin.

I'd get used to him. My feeling was that it was Pawlenty unless Daniels got in, so yeah, I think it's him. I find it interesting that you say you can't stand him. Not because I adore the guy or anything, but because the overwhelming response to him is one of a lack of excitement in either direction; haven't found too many people who actively dislike the guy.

I think he'll probably be a bit more lively as things heat up, though. If Pawlenty does look like the sensible choice, though, I suspect a lot of conservatives will flock to the more firebrand-y guys like Hermain Cain, improbable though they may be. That kind of frustration needs an outlet, and for some people, Pawlenty won't do the trick. I could easily see Cain becoming a national figure (even in the process of losing the nomination by a fair bit) with an upstart campaign, like Huckabee had in '08.

I also think Daniels declining makes it a shade more likely that Perry jumps into the race. I think he's probably the last guy who pretty much everyone in the party could get behind who actually has some shot of running at this point.

I guess I am just tired of the same old Republican rhetoric. The guy just spews all of the same phrases and he even has that one thing he does with his thumb and pointer finger. I honestly don't know much about the guys politics, but he is just one of those guys that I listen to and watch while becoming extremely irritated and I start rolling my eyes a lot.

He just really seems extra puppety to me. Like he will give all the blank statements in the world to make people happy, but really he doesn't stand for much at all. It's people like Pawlenty that really makes me want to give Ron Paul all of my support, because at least the guy stands for something. I can forgive his flaws because he has been one of the most consistent and non-sheit-taking politicians out there.

Perry is not running. These are your candidates. I think it is quite possible Pawlenty wins Iowa then Romney wins New Hampshire big time, then we will see how it goes with early teeter totter back and forth, but ultimately it is Romney because he is the only one who has a chance of beating Obama with his emphasis on the economy, which he couldn't do last time running with Republican sitting in the White House. Romney is the smoother, more polished articulate politician. This year it is the economy, stupid, and that is perfect for Romney, not Pawlenty.

I was looking at a site that had two early videos of Romney and Pawlenty and while the writer was trying to be objective, it is clear he was more impressed with the TP clip. I had the opposite reaction. It was slickly produced, lots of waving the American flag and said nothing. Romney just talked straight to the camera. I think the reason for the difference Pawlenty is a vapid speaker so they had to slick it up. Romney, not a politician I care for, always tilting at the wind, but he knows hot to talk. At the very least he will hold his own in a debate with Obama. Pawlenty doesn't show any indication he is capable of that.