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So, lots of polls lately, as we get closer. You're all probably aware of the shifts in the national polls after the DNC and then after the debate. National polls seem to have settled into maybe a slight Romney lead, but they're pretty much all within the margin of error, so they're far from dispositive.
More pertinent are the state polls. And there's more drama there, because state polls can be big news even when a state's lead doesn't "flip," because the margin of each lead or deficit drives the decisions about where money and time are spent. You don't even have to win them to justify the focus; sometimes it's enough to force your opponent to spend time and money there, playing "defense" in a state they were already counting on. So, the margins matter.
I bring this up because the latest shift in the race has brought a lot of changing state polls, and they present both campaigns with a challenge in figuring out which ones represent real opportunities, and which are mirages or outliers. For example:
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania is my home state, and has the fifth-most electoral votes in the nation (20). It's a huge prize, and it's voted for the Democratic candidate in each Presidential election since 1988, when Bush Sr. won it narrowly. Bush the Younger almost flipped it in 2004, but fell just short. Because of its demographics, aging population, and huge electoral vote count, it's often tantalized Republican candidates, though they've found it difficult to get over the hump here.
Late last week, a Siena poll showed Obama up just 3 here. Huge deal, if true, but again, Pennsylvania has eluded Republicans for awhile, and the poll looked like an outlier. It looked a little less so on Monday, when a Susquehanna poll gave Obama a 2 point lead.
On the flip side, two other polls later in the week gave Obama leads of 8 and 5, respectively, which are numbers more in keeping with the conventional wisdom pre-debate. So which is correct? That's what both campaigns have to decide.
Mirage?
Me, I tend to think Obama's probably got a 4-5 point lead here right now. That would make it technically winnable for Romney, but it's one of those situations where it's hard to imagine him winning it and needing it to win. That is, in any situation where his standing is strong enough in general that he's genuinely duking it out here, he's probably doing well enough in states like Ohio to win without Pennsylvania. But it's hard to say.
If we actually get a few more low single digit margin polls, Romney would be crazy not to make a push here. But my guess is we'll get a few more Obama +5-ish polls here soon and neither campaign will expend much in the way of resources.