LOTR: FOTR Predictions

Alright, have it out: what do you think "Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Rings" will manage at the U.S. Box Office? I'm thinking around $250 million (give or take $10-15 million) in all, though no individual weekend records. A much more steady cume...maybe $60-65 million to start, then down to $45 million, then down to $30, etc. Slower and steadier than Harry Potter, for example.

What do you guys think?

I don't think it will pass $200 million.

If we're using Price is Right rules (closest without going over), I guess $1, but if I have to make a legitimate prediction, I'm going with $165 million domestic first run box office overall.

I'm predicting no higher than $35 million in Week One, and even that would be bigger numbers than I would actually expect (which would be closer to around $20 million).

Wow, that low? I'm shocked. On the other end of the spectrum, we've got idiots claiming LOTR:FOTR is gonna blow away Potter's 3-day record...which cracks me up. They had a poll on MovieHeadlines.net...55% say it'll open higher, and 45% say it won't. Geez...it should've been at least 70/30 in favor of "No."

I don't think it'll open quite so small, though. It is not the type of movie to make money with speed, so to speak. Three reviews are out, though (checkout Reviews of "Lord of the Rings" Surfacing!), on the 'Net, and all three basically praise it as either one of the best, or THE best of the year. I believe a movie critic from RollingStone called it the best of the year.

I see it as being a genuinely great movie...not at all shallow, but not something mindless moviegoers will go nuts over, either, and as such, I see it topping $200 million, but not soaring by it, and not smashing records apart, either. I do see it getting almost univerally positive reviews, and strong word-of-mouth, however.

i agree with TWT- a 50-60 million dollar first weekend, and then down to 30 and maybe some 15 million for a little while after that, but it depends on how many ppl watched the fox special last night, it was really good, i mean really, really good. THis film could make 150 million, but i dont think much more.

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R u Americans on holiday when it comes out?
cause that would make a difference

I'll guess it will go straight to #1 and stay there 4 two 2 three weeks.

I'm guessing it will get to $300m.


Peace,

Ben & Willie: no, no real holiday that I know of...though Christmas is 6 days AFTER it comes out.

It opens on my Step-Father's birthday, but I don't think that's a national holiday..... yet.

LeesMovieInfo.com is predicting that it'll take in $30 million on Wednesday and Thursday combined, and another $45 million or so over the 3-day weekend that follows (21st/22nd/23rd). I'm include to agree...though I think the first-day toll prediction of $19 million is low...I think it'll crack $20 million. JP3 brought in $19 million in it's first day (also a Wednesday), you know. I think that, all said and done, it'll have around $80 million after its first five days (Sunday will be the fifth).

First day: $18.2 million...pretty much dead-on with most predictions, though personally I thought it'd make a few million more. It'll take a dip tomorrow, and likely finish up with $30 million heading into the weekend, where I suspect It'll pull in another $40-50 million.

Think it will pass Potter in it's run at Number 1???

With all these movies coming out this week and next, LOTR is going to have a tough time holding onto #1. Ya know...

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Well, first off, no, I don't think Potter is in danger. It'll pass "Shrek" shortly, and I don't see LOTR making that much. It's just too long...all the praise it has received, though, will help it to top $200 million, however. Concerning LOTR's stance: it'll snatch up #1 EASILY this weekend (21st/22nd/23rd)...in fact, my guess is that it will roughly double that of the film in second place.

The weekend of the 28th/29th/30th won't be much tougher. "Ali" will have come out on the 25th, and hasn't gotten the praise LOTR has. I don't think "Ali" will be able to dethrone it, and if it does, it won't be by much. The other films coming out Christmas day pose no threat, and the other notable ones opening on the 28th, it seems, are only in limited release anyway.

It's third weekend "A Beautiful Mind" hits wide release. It may fall then, though I can't really be sure. Either way I see it in the thick of things.

Ouch! Apparently LOTR: FOTR took in around $9.7 million on Thursday...big dip. I think it'll rebound a bit, though, and finish with $70 million or so after the weekend, likely to top $40 million. I REALLY hope this movie stretches the legs it so obviously has, though. It'd be a real shame to see an amazing movie, almost universally praised and finely crafted, not become the hit it can be, because of something like running time, or people's preconcieved notions.

Word on the street is LOTR is too scary for little kids. That might be why the numbers are down. People don't wanna scare the crap out of their kids for Christmas. I thought this was gonna be a huge success. Hmm..

i think all the parents will take their kids to see this film because they loved the books when they were kids.

But still, the Orcs and the Riders Nine are a little terrifying to kids under the age of 10, and maybe some a little older than 10

Wednesday: $18.2 million.
Thursday: $9.7 million.
Friday: $14.3 million.

It'll likely gross $40-45 million over the weekend, giving it around $75 million total after five days. Not bad.

Not too bad at all. How many screens is LOTR on compared to that of Harry Potter? What was the five day take in of Potter compared to LOTR??

Potter started off on a few hundred theaters more...something like 3,600 to LOTR's 3,359. "Potter" grossed just over $104 million in its first five days. Here's an old report on it:

"Potter" will have a more impressive commercial record, no doubt, but LOTR will likely take in a few major awards, and do quite well from a financial standpoint, too. I'm still predicting a total of over $200 million domestically, even if it does take awhile to get there. No chance in hizzell of passing "Potter," however.

And Potter got snubbed at the Golden Globe noms.

LOTR should do just fine.

Well here in NZ it doubled what Harry Potter made on the first day and took in the biggest one day total ever (beating Phantom Menace).

I also heard it brought in record totals in Sweden, Norway and South Africa.