2012 Oscar Predictions

Having seen it now, my suspicions have been confirmed: I would be extremely surprised not to see Swinton nominated for Leading Actress for We Need to Talk About Kevin. Her performance really was spot on. I think Ezra Miller may have an outside chance for Supporting Actor too.

The Artist will certainly receive a nomination of Best Picture, as well as a few other awards. Jean Dujardin may very well receive a nomination for Best Actor. The film is shockingly strong.

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"Astronomy compels the soul to look upward, and leads us from this world to another" - Plato

It will.

Nostalgia, folks, nostalgia... A silent movie about old hollywood? What a blast from the past! The critics love it.

For kicks and giggles, I will make my early predictions and see how many I get right.

1) The Artist
2) The Ides of March
3) Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
4) War Horse
5) Midnight In Paris
6) The Help
7) J. Edgar
8) Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
9) The Iron Lady
10) The Tree of Life

The Artist looks very interesting.

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"Don't be so gloomy. After all it's not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock."

I want to add The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo to that list, possibly replacing...okay, I don't know what to replace, but I think it should be considered. Judging from the trailers (especially the 8 minute one recently released), I think this film has a fair chance. I also would nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay, but again I'm going to wait and see the film before I make my judgement.

By the way, in case you all haven't gotten wind of the rules change, there can be up to ten Best Picture nominees each year now, but there are only five guaranteed slots. Each Academy member turns in their nominating ballot with their choices for Picture. Only titles garnering at least 5% of the first place votes will make it onto the final ballot. With the current membership (a bit over over six thousand), that means a feature must get at least five hundred and fifty first place votes to make the cut. Price Waterhouse, the accounting firm that tabulates all Oscar voting, said that under this criteria, from the years 2002-2008 there were no years in which there would have been ten nominees. A couple with six nominees, some with only five, a seven, an eight, and one that would have had nine. So projecting the Best Picture nominees just became a lot more difficult, to say the least. Nobody will know how many Best Picture nominees there are until they are revealed publicly that morning of the noms. Five to ten, probably not ten, maybe more like six or seven? Ugh.


If I had to make guesses at this point, I'll go with The Artist, The Descendants, The Tree of Life, Moneyball and Hugo as my core five. On the bubble for the next two or three spots, I'd say Carnage, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close and Midnight in Paris. If it actually gets closer to ten or somehow fills all the slots, I'd say The Help, The Adventures of Tintin and maybe Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy or The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo are in the mix.

I don't think the likes of Drive, J. Edgar, War Horse, Martha Marcy May Marlene, The Ides of March, The Iron Lady, Albert Nobbs, Shame and My Week with Marilyn, though all likely to garner major noms in other categories, are going to make the cut for Best Picture.

Though who in the fart knows? They've essentially made it impossible to predict. Last year was almost too easy to fill out the ten, this year impossible to even know how many movies we're looking at. I wish they'd just go back to five nominees and be done with it already.

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"Film is a disease. When it infects your bloodstream it takes over as the number one hormone. It bosses the enzymes, directs the pineal gland, plays Iago to your psyche. As with heroin, the antidote to Film is more Film." - Frank Capra

Oh, and BTW, The Artist is amazing. Saw it on Sunday. Will be seeing it four or five more times, theatrically. Not only is it rather irresistable, but it does have the full power of Harvey Weinstein behind it for the awards season. Still not sure if they'll actually give the Oscar to a "Silent" movie made by a Frenchman, but we shall see. I think it's going to come down to The Artist vs. The Descendants, no matter which other movies get nominated (or how many). Alexander Payne's movie is very good but realitively easy and safe, while Michel Hazanavicius' is unique and magical. If they go conservatively it'll be The Descenadants, and if they get bold it'll be The Artist. Either way, it'll be the first time a film that can be considered a "comedy" wins the Best Picture since Annie Hall (or Shakespeare in Love or Chicago, depending on how generous you are with the genre label). The Descendants is more properly a Dramedy, more in line with Terms of Endearment, and The Artist is a comedy the way Chaplin's movies were comedies, filled with lots of pathos. But certainly in comparison to The Hurt Locker, The Departed, No Country for Old Men, Crash, Million Dollar Baby, Return of the King, A Beautiful Mind, etc., as I say, the closest thing the Best Picture winner has seen to a comedy in a long, long time.

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Attachments

   

Five percent of 6,000 is 300. 550 would be 5% of 11,000.

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It's what you learn after you know it all that counts. - John Wooden
My IMDb page

That's what I get for not checking an article's math.

The films so far, only 2 have been released, so it is almost impossible to tell. We haven't even seen all of these film footage. In addition, you can not determine how good a movie is purely based on the actor/director, if, this is the case, hereinafter referred to as actually have become better.

My early predictions

Best picture: The Descendants
Best director: Alexander Payne- The Descendants
Best original screenplay: Midnight in Paris
Best adapted screenplay: The Descendants
Best actor: George Clooney- The Descendants
Best actress: Meryl Streep- The Iron Lady
Best supporting actor: Christopher Plummer- Beginners
Best supporting actress: Shailene Woodley- The Descendants
Best cinematography: The Tree of Life
Best original score: War Horse
Best editing: War Horse
Best costume design: Jane Eyre
Best art direction: Hugo
Best sound mixing: Super 8
Best sound editing: Super 8
Best animated feature: The Adventures of Tintin
Best foreign film: A Separation
Best documentary feature: Undefeated
Best special effects: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Best song: W.E

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You used up all the glue on purpose!

We haven't even seen footage for all those films yet. Besides, you can't judge how well a film is going to be purely based on actors/directors, if that was the case then Hereafter actually would've turned out good.

My 10 Best Picture Nominees predictions are:

The Help
War Horse
The Descendants
The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
Midnight in Paris
My Week With Marilyn
The Artist
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close or The Ides of March

1)Drive
2)War Horse
3)Hugo
4)Midnight in paris
5)The ides of march

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Special of the day History of the day

If you look at the first nine I listed back in the first week of December (The Artist, The Descendants, The Tree of Life, Moneyball, Hugo, Carnage, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, Midnight in Paris, The Help), I was eight for nine! The one I was very wrong about was Polanski's Carnage, which I liked a lot but got mixed critical reception and almost no awards traction throughout the season...and the Academy did not buck that trend. That was the one movie I most overestimated. And frickin' War Horse is the one I most underestimated. Oh, well. Overall, pretty well on target.

Some bold predictions: Hugo - Best movie
Scorcese - Best Director
Clooney - Best Actor
Streep - Best Actress