2024 Hollywood Guild Awards

Annual thread where I track the nominees and eventual winners of the major guild awards, specifically the PGA (Producers Guild of America), the DGA (Directors Guild of America), the WGA (Writers Guild of America), the ASC (American Society of Cinematographers) and the ACE (American Cinema Editors). The Screen Actors Guild (SAG) has its own thread. All of these guilds have internal awards that correlate to Academy Award categories, and all are handed out ahead of The Oscars...except for the WGA, which this year has decided to move their ceremony back quite a bit, to mid April, more than a month after The Oscars.

The Producers Guild of America (PGA) Awards
Outstanding Theatrical Motion Picture
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

Outstanding Animated Motion Picture
The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem



The Directors Guild of America (DGA) Awards
Theatrical Feature Film
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Alexander Payne, The Holdovers
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

First-Time Feature Film
Cord Jefferson, American Fiction
Manuela Martelli, Chile '76
Noora Niasari, Shayda
A.V. Rockwell, A Thousand and One
Celine Song, Past Lives


The Writers Guild of America (WGA) Awards
Original Screenplay
Air
Barbie
The Holdovers
May December
Past Lives

Adapted Screenplay
American Fiction
Are You There, God? It's me, Margaret
Killers of the Flower Moon
Nyad
Oppenheimer


The American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) Awards
Feature Film
Edward Lachman, El Conde
Matthew Libatique, Maestro
Rodrigo Prieto, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robbie Ryan, Poor Things
Hoyte Van Hoytema, Oppenheimer


The American Cinema Editors (ACE) Awards
Feature Film, Drama
Keith Fraase, Past Lives
Jennifer Lame, Oppenheimer
Laurent Sénéchal, Anatomy of a Fall
Thelma Schoonmaker, Killers of the Flower Moon
Michelle Tesoro, Maestro

Feature Film, Comedy
William Goldenberg, Air
Nick Houy, Barbie
Yorgos Mavropsaridis, Poor Things
Hilda Rasula, American Fiction
Kevin Tent, The Holdovers

Animated Feature Film
Elemental
Nimona
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

__________________
"Film is a disease. When it infects your bloodstream it takes over as the number one hormone. It bosses the enzymes, directs the pineal gland, plays Iago to your psyche. As with heroin, the antidote to Film is more Film." - Frank Capra

The DGA Award is historically the best predictor of who will win the corresponding Oscar. Like, by a lot. But while their winners match up much more often than not, their nominees usually differ somewhat. Most years there are one or two variations between the organizations, even though virtually any member of the Academy's Director's Branch doing the Oscar nominating is also a member of the DGA and nominating there, too. But there is a much larger membership in the DGA, as that includes directors of television, documentary, music videos, and commercials along with the feature film helmers. The last time the DGA and Oscar nominees mirrored each other perfectly was 2009 (Kathryn Bigelow's year for The Hurt Locker).

Last year the only difference was the DGA gave a nod to Joseph Kosinski for Top Gun: Maverick while the Academy swapped him out for Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness). They both chose The Daniels as the winners.

This could very well be one of the rare years where all five nominees match exactly. Clearly Greta Gerwig and Chris Nolan are automatic, and it is difficult to believe the Oscars would snub Scorsese at this stage in his career. Lanthimos got a previous directing Oscar nom for The Favourite (Alfonso Cuarón won for Roma) and I suspect they'll go for him again for Poor Things, even though it is much more surreal. Which leaves Alexander Payne, who the Academy loves as he already has three previous nods for Sideways, The Descendants, and Nebraska. Would they really overlook him this time?


Bradley Cooper did not get an Oscar nod for directing his debut A Star is Born, and that movie was a huge hit and had a mountain of nominations, so while his sophomore effort will get some more big noms, I can't see one of them being Best Director. Though clearly if he keeps up this level of filmmaking it is only a matter of time. Justine Triet could well hear her name called Oscar morning for Anatomy of a Fall, though by snubbing which of the DGA five? The Zone of Interest is an "Oscary" kind of movie, but is it strong enough for Jonathan Glazer, best know for Under the Skin and Sexy Beast, to get his first Oscar nomination? I doubt it. If Todd Haynes did not get Oscar nods for Carol or Far from Heaven will he for May/December? Doesn't seem super likely. Ridley Scott has three previous Oscar noms (Black Hawk Down, Gladiator, and Thelma & Louise), but surely Napoleon is not going to be an Oscar darling all of the sudden.

Celine Song (Past Lives) could be the dark horse, but like Triet it would be pretty surprising for either of them to go ahead of Payne or Lanthimos. I would think.




Getting back to the DGA nominations themselves, Killers of the Flower Moon is Martin Scorsese's eleventh nomination here (Taxi Driver, Raging Bull, GoodFellas, The Age of Innocence, Gangs of New York, The Aviator, The Departed, Hugo, The Wolf of Wall Street, The Irishman), behind only Spielberg's thirteen (Kazan, Wyler, and Zinnemann are next on the list with six a piece). Scorsese's only win for the DGA Award, like the Oscar, is for The Departed and he is the only of this year's nominees to have won at the DGA before.

While Christopher Nolan somehow only has one previous Oscar nomination as Best Director, this is his fifth DGA Award nomination, following Memento, The Dark Knight, Inception, and Dunkirk. Barbie is Greta Gerwig's third solo feature film and already her second DGA nomination - the other being Ladybird, the year Guillermo del Toro won for The Shape of Water. This is Yorgos Lanthimos' very first DGA nod and Alexander Payne's third (Sideways & The Descendants).

Four previous nominations and no wins coupled with the massive technical achievement of Oppenheimer should make Christopher Nolan the favorite?

Whoever wins will be the prohibitive Oscar favorite.

The American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) nominees are a diverse bunch. None of the five has won an ASC Award (nor an Oscar) in their careers, though all have been nominated here before.

Rodrigo Prieto has four previous ASC nominations, two for other Scorsese movies (Silence & The Irishman) plus Ang Lee's Brokeback Mountain and Julie Taymor's Frida, with no wins. Edward Lachman has two previous nominations, both for Todd Haynes movies (Far from Heaven and Carol). But he did not lens May December, instead Haynes worked with Christopher Blauvelt (First Cow, Meek's Cutoff) and Lachman winds up nominated for Pablo Larraín's El Conde, shot in black and white. Hoyte Van Hoytema also has two previous ASC noms (Dunkirk and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy). Matthew Libatique also joins the three-time nominee club, with Maestro adding to A Star is Born and Black Swan. Irish cinematographer Robbie Ryan has some terrific credits (Slow West, Red Road, Fish Tank, Marriage Story, and I, Daniel Blake) but his only previous nomination came for Yorgos' The Favourite.

The good news is one of them will walk away with the prize this time!

Because the WGA has gone rogue and pushed their event way back after the Oscars, some of the other organizations are going to start announcing their winners before we even get nominees from the Writers.

The Directors Guild of America Awards are this Saturday night!

Unsurprisingly, Christopher Nolan did win the DGA Award tonight for Oppenheimer. Celine Song won the award for First-Time Theatrical Feature for Past Lives.

In addition to the prizes it won at the Screen Actors Guild Awards over the weekend, Oppenheimer also won the top honor at the Producers Guild of America (PGA) Awards on Sunday night. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse won Animated Feature.

What does the PGA win mean for handicapping Oscar's Best Picture? The PGA Award is younger than some of the other guilds. They only started bestowing their trophies for the 1989 season (Driving Miss Daisy won their first award). In the thirty-four years of the PGA Award they have missed matching the Academy's Best Picture ten times. That is 71% accuracy. Not bad at all, but nothing compared to the DGA's rather peerless 90+%. However, seven of those ten discrepancies have come in the 21st Century including four in the 2000s, three of them in a row with The Aviator/Million Dollar Baby, Brokeback Mountain/Crash, and Little Miss Sunshine/The Departed. After those odd three misses in a row the two awards had their longest streak of matching, eight years (2007-2014). There were three misses in the 2010s with The Big Short/Spotlight, La La Land/Moonlight, and the most recent was 1917/Parasite, matching the last three years (Nomadland, CODA, and Everything Everywhere All At Once).

While not infallible, the PGA win for Oppenheimer definitely continues its very good momentum heading into the Academy Awards. It is the favorite. Now the question is will it retain that momentum or will we have a surprise come Oscar night?

Now the only two major Guild Awards remaining before the Oscars are the Cinematographers and Editors, both of which hold their ceremonies this coming Sunday. As noted earlier, for some odd reason the WGA has decided to move their ceremony to well after the Oscars.

For the first time in a while just about every one of the major Guild awards matched up with the corresponding Oscar...though we won't know about the Writers Guild until next month (weirdos). The DGA of course did not have one of their ultra-rare misses, the PGA continued their Best Picture hot hand, the Cinematographers matched, as did the Editors. The only mismatch was the PGA broke their streak of eight consecutive matches in the Animated Feature category when they chose Across the Spider-Verse but Oscar voters went for The Boy and the Heron. When you fold in the SAG Awards the only difference in the four acting categories was that Emma Stone won Best Actress from the Academy over Lily Gladstone.