Who Will be Our Next President?
 

Let’s call the election!

This is just a bit of fun. Let’s all be civil & no hysteria please if others have a different prediction than yours. :p



I call it for DONALD TRUMP

Trump, by default. A country with 320 mil, these are the best two a-holes out there?

Re: Who Will be Our Next President?
 

Btw, anyone can post in this thread. You don’t have to be American. :)

Re: Who Will be Our Next President?
 

My prediction is:




...this thread will get locked.

Re: Who Will be Our Next President?
 

I'm hoping it's not going to be Trump, but I'm also terrified that it will be Trump.

I’m prepared for this. It’s why I asked for civility in the OP.

Won’t you give us your election prediction?

Ditto.

I've not seen any political discussion remain civil for long. I know you can be civil but someone will come along and throw gas on the fire, which will then start a chain reaction, you'll see.

My predictions? If anyone has read any of my post on the more topical threads then they should know who I hope will win, but as far as predictions, I don't want to make one.

Out of the two candidates, I hope Trump will win. I also think he's a slight favorite.

Also, so much this...

This!

Once again we find ourselves with a couple of pretty rough choices. That said, out of the two, I think Trump is much more equipped to handle the position at this point in time. Biden is a shade of what he once was, and I see clear signs of cognitive decline. In fact, I don't think the Democrat's plan is to keep Biden in place at all. Pelosi's push to form the committee that will analyze the President's ability to lead seems like she is hedging her bets, preparing to have Kamala invoke the statute to begin the process to take Biden out, after which Harris would be installed.

Trump, for better or for worse, is currently a towering figure in our culture, completely dominating the mentality of the fanatical fringes on both sides of the political spectrum. TDS, which is Trump Derangement Syndrome on the left, and Trump Devotion Syndrome on the right, has most of the public discourse concerning Trump boiling over constantly. He dominates all the media outlets, infests both real and virtual culture around the globe, and all the while, he swaggers through everyone's lives like the proverbial bull in the China shop without ever stopping to contemplate the effects of his presence, except to perhaps stop for a few seconds to fix his coiffure in the mirror.

So, on one hand, we have a bell-rung old codger, with a really rough record on policy, who lurches and putters around, occasionally forgetting where he is, and on the other hand, we have a brash blowhard that constantly dives head first into situations and manages to come out looking like he knew what he was doing all along (with a few obvious and dire exceptions, such as COVID), even though it's pretty clear he doesn't.

I dunno, for me, it's a fairly easy call, as I am pretty firmly planted in that odd space between libertarian, center right, so it's a vote for Trump for me, even if I will wince a bit when I pull the level. Actually, i already pulled the lever. That said, I am by no means dressed up in MAGA gear, parading around extoling my devotion to the guy.

Lastly - this thread will be locked, and probably soon. Our patience with these threads has worn pretty thin. We aren't quite zero tolerance, but we are getting there! ;) So, fair warning: at the first sign of a fire starting, this will probably be closed.

Prediction:

Trump!

Re: Who Will be Our Next President?
 

It looks like Trump is going to win, but I want the other guy to win (sorry Joe Biden,- you're just the other guy). Trump rallies are funny and charismatic on the other hand Joe Biden talks nonsense sometimes and he said he would faze out oil and gas industries. Trump promises to keep the economy going whereas Joe Biden threatens more lock-downs.

The election is Tuesday so this thread will be moot very very soon.

Re: Who Will be Our Next President?
 

Alright, I'm gonna cut this off right now and say that this thread can only exist if it's literally just for answering the question. No overt political discussion lobbying for either candidate or explaining how they're going to win/lose because they're so great/awful.

If people just wanna talk odds and predictions, sure, although to my mind 90% of the time people just predict whatever they want to happen, anyway.

This would be my greatest wish. (Emphasis added above.)

Re: Who Will be Our Next President?
 

Same. But how realistic that is, days before an election...well. Tougher to say. ;) The responses so far are probably predictable, though.

Anyway, that's my fair warning for everyone! :)

Re: Who Will be Our Next President?
 

My money's on a deeply contested outcome followed by a lengthy legal process that ends with a re-run of the whole thing in about a years time.

Whoever gets the most votes.

https://i.imgur.com/K7MWmqX.png

Re: Who Will be Our Next President?
 

I would be very surprised if Donald Trump doesn't get in again. I'm glad I'm not voting, it's the lesser of two evils once again...

I don't like Trump but I also don't trust Biden at all.

https://media.tenor.com/images/4c301...f3ac/tenor.gif

I totally agree.. I think because of the mail-in ballots, Biden will win (UGH - and I'm the farthest thing from a Republican)

I also wonder how long it take to concede. My first election was 2000 - took months...

(If this thread gets locked, why not a poll with no replies allowed?)

A fine idea. I'm actually not sure if closing a thread locks a poll, but I don't think it would. I'll keep this in mind.

If a poll was added or done in another thread, I'd prefer the poll to be:
Who Do You Support for the Next President
as opposed to
Who Will be Our Next President

I think the results would be more interesting.

Funny, I was thinking the same thing about Biden...


I really hope Trump wins but I just can't see it happening. The polls are just too much against him. Either way I think it will be a long drawn out process with all the mail-in ballots. I just hate to see a great country like America so bitterly entrenched in divided camps. Hard to believe that just a generation ago Reagan won 49 states in 1984!


My prediction: a comfortable win for Biden.

Re: Who Will be Our Next President?
 

Interesting you say that, because pollsters sometimes believe that "who do you think will win?" is actually a better predictor than "who are you voting for?"

I very much hope it's Trump and that's who I voted for. Trump is an absolute maniac when it comes to his energy and getting things done. It's still more a reflection of where I believe the political parties are right now as a whole. Just going off a tad, one of my biggest concerns these days is the dishonesty of the media in their efforts to influence.

I think Trumps gonna win again. His supporters are the most loyal I've seen since Reagan

Re: Who Will be Our Next President?
 

I think it's going to be Tongo!

He's Talkin About My Leader (The Simpsons):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c1TJFqNW6oo

Re: Who Will be Our Next President?
 

All hail our Lord Cthulhu!

Re: Who Will be Our Next President?
 

I'm gonna go with the prediction of Allan Lichteman and say Biden.

Re: Who Will be Our Next President?
 

Trump

Re: Who Will be Our Next President?
 

I think Biden is going to win and I have money on Biden, I see the situation as a lot different to four years ago and think he has quite a straightforward path to victory. Now reading this thread has made me a little worried :p

Lots of people betting in Britain on Trump but I think that's because a) he's better value for money than Biden with odds and b) they think it's like last time with bookies undervaluing him and polls being wrong (which was wildly exaggerated at the time and in different circumstances)

It's been four years of continuous Trump bashing.

Re: Who Will be Our Next President?
 

As a European I'm for Biden to win, because he would be more accommodating to European interests.

I don't think that makes much of a difference to be honest and isn't really part of my considerations. He got a load of media bashing during the last election and new stuff kept coming to light (like grab her by the...) but it didn't do anything. I think his supporters (and some others) aren't too bothered by that. There haven't really been any shocking revelations in the last few years for Trump.

I think if the election was this time last year he would have won but people have been unimpressed by how he has turned the Covid crisis into an opportunity to promote himself and how he has attacked scientists, mocked mask-wearers and social distancing and so on. I'm a sceptic myself when it comes to a lot of the government intervention here in the UK but I think it's about attitude and leading by example. Being macho has worked on other issues and helped him beat Hillary but I actually think people trust and respect Biden a lot more for taking this seriously. This is just my POV as someone from the UK though.

I don't want to get into a long debate and I know Yoda said to avoid actual political debate but I don't think he's really delivered much either, to be honest, at least not in the conventional sense that I would expect from a Republican. Economically he hasn't been very fiscally prudent, with a lot of his barriers/tariffs damaging, his libertarian war stance seems to come and go when he wants votes, there's no wall and so on. He's very authoritarian and anti-free market (like trying to censor Twitter too). I think a decent Republican would beat the Democrats who have a lot of potential weak spots (court packing, law and order), but they picked a safe moderate candidate hoping people would go for the calm option.

But back on topic the polls would have to be a lot more wrong than last time for Trump to win as I understand it. Last time they actually seemed to slightly underrate HC on the Popular vote, and Trump just managed to get like 2/3% more than predicted in some key swing states. If Biden manages to hold on to what HC got and add a few more then he gets it. Again, this is my view from afar but I do take a keen interest in all this, but I would really be shocked if Trump won again.

Biden only needs to flip Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. All three of these were a percentage point victories for Trump.

Trump has his US America first notion.

As a European, I think that's a good attribute for the US president. I wish our politicians would be more concerned about our countries/people too.

Re: Who Will be Our Next President?
 

I hope it's Biden and I think he will win too.

I think there's a lot of democrats and even people who vocally support Biden who will secretly vote Trump because it's better for their wallets.

Re: Who Will be Our Next President?
 

We'll just wait and see

This thread might have been more interesting if you’d simply answered the OP. :p

It would be very bizarre if the head of State of a particular nation did not want to put the interests of that nation first. I would expect nothing less.

Re: Who Will be Our Next President?
 

It’s going to be an interesting week for sure. We don’t even know which day the final result will be declared.

BTW, glad this thread didn’t go down in flames over the weekend. I do think we’ve all been mighty civil to each other, which is what I wanted. :)

There can only be one GOAT!!!!

Yes, but Trump started "trade wars" to "make US America great again" and more industrious and self sufficient. USA became more isolationist and he viewed international compromise as weakness. US America can do this only because of it's size and militaristic and economic power. Smaller Nations have no choice, but to compromise for it's own and greater good. Compromise can also be for self interest.

Compromise is for the weak. Anyway Biden is going to win so America can resume a bland presence on the global stage.

Any another politician achieving what Trump has achieved in Middle East by mending relationships between fighting countries would have been bestowed upon with a Nobel or at least more recognition.


Also, as an Indian I am grateful that he and the GOP have either denied or halted major monetary aid to Pakistan, which is meant for the poor and for the fight against Taliban, but is always diverted to training new terrorists instead by the Pak army that can be used against Afghanistan and India.


Hillary wouldn't have been that. She would have, in all probability, started a new war or destabilised some country. Showered Pakistan with more money. All of which Biden or the eventual President Harris (after Biden step down with bad health) will do.


(I hope Yoda doesn't get angry with me for going off-track)



As for the topic, reckon it will be Biden.


But as an academic curiosity, how affected these polls would have been with Coronavirus issue. Doesn't make it easier to conduct them. So will the margin of error be more?

Easier said than done. Nationalistic/patriotic rhetoric can be nice to hear but the reality seems much more complex. I think China is a good example of this, I despise their authoritarian regime but slapping tariffs on them and bragging about how income they've generated is meaningless if not compared with the economic costs that come from the consequences of these decisions regarding imports/exports which often fall to consumers/businesses.

I'm interested in seeing how Trump does with a lot of the "rust belt" states whose industries he promised to protect/revive, we have a similar situation in the UK with Conservatives turning to more interventionist fiscal policy rather than free-market in attempting to appeal to Northern seats.

I could be wrong but I have always been under the impressed that polls are carried out via digital means, through phone, or more nowadays online. I think it's certainly the case here in the UK at least. I take part in YouGov surveys almost everyday, it's quite easy to sign up and take part but it does require a bit of effort in the actual surveys. They actually pay you too once you've contributed enough :)

I agree with you on phone and online survey, but certain demographics, which incidentally have a big say in the results in most countries, are usually not tech savvy and that's where these pollsters go on ground. With US it would be the interiors or south. Even though, US didn't have strict lockdowns like other nations, I would imagine that must have been difficult to do or done to a smaller degree.

I just don't have faith in those polls with so many Trump supporters keeping quiet. The Gallup poll that says 56% of people say they are better off now then 4 years ago seems more relevant. That's an extremely high number as it is, and it was taken during a pandemic. It's really a startling number.

Re: Who Will be Our Next President?
 

Seems dissonant to say the polls are wrong because Trump supporters are being quiet, but then also cite a poll as evidence of it. That's really a narrow thread, to saying they're answering general polls but not specific ones. Also, pollsters weight to account for these things. It's imperfect, but I think a lot of laypeople think they're just calling whoever and just shrug it off if a certain demographic decides not to answer. That's not how it works.

Anyway, what you're describing has been described before, it was once known as the "shy Tory" effect and it's been floated with different names and in different contexts in many elections since. And it'll be cited again after this one even if it doesn't end up manifesting. I'm pretty sympathetic to the idea that it exists, but thinking it can explain away the kinds of margins we're seeing is a pretty huge stretch.

If the results are massively different than expected, it won't be because of this effect, it'll be because of a more fundamental problem with modern polling.

Keeping it about me personally since that's what the poll is about, I pay less taxes, less for gas in my car, less for utilities, my wife pays less for prescription medication, and our home's value and my 401K has gone way up. Under Obama, when I was out of work for a couple of years by choice, I had to pay a penalty because I didn't have health insurance. What if it wasn't my choice? I also feel safer without any foreign conflict because I think it could have a connection to the terror attacks, which seemed to occur on a daily basis prior to Trump, practically disappearing here altogether since he's been in office. If Biden wins, I believe this all gets reversed. Even the huge increase in tax on people making over 400k will hurt someone like me a lot. If it hurts my boss, that can affect raises, bonuses, overtime, and jobs. I'm truly puzzled why anyone would want Biden to win.

Well aren't people just concerned about saying they support Trump? Saying you're better off now is not necessarily an indicator of who you support as an individual.

That's precisely what I'm getting at, yeah.

Anyway, the thing you're describing, as I mentioned, has a name and a history and all that. It'd be reasonable to say such an effect exists but as actually observed it seems pretty modest.

I didn't know there was a history to it but I don't doubt it. I still would guess it's different now with how polarizing Trump is and that people are more hesitant than ever to share their opinion with the violence from the left. I also think many Trump supporters have a great deal of mistrust for the media, for good reason, and that mistrust could very easily extend to pollsters.

Re: Who Will be Our Next President?
 

That’s where weighting comes in. It would take an extreme number of "shy" voters to just get missed on any significant scale.

The better criticism is of the fact that weighting requires turnout assumptions.

Yep but I wonder if there's more to it than just the shy voter this time around. I also wonder if weighting reflects what the average election is, since this one is probably as far from average as you can get. On the other hand I would say the Gallup poll is more likely to be accurate. If so that would have to be a good sign for the incumbent.

I’d say that there are far more loud supporters of Trump than shy, but I have a feeling that something crazy is going to happen with voter turn out today.

Early numbers so far indict that voters are engaged at numbers we haven’t seen before. Meanwhile, I couldn’t be more disengaged from the whole mess.

I’ll be headed to the polls today and I still don’t know if I’ll be repeating my absence of a President vote. Probably time to flip that coin now. I’ve seen enough evidence over the last 12 years to tell me neither party has America’s interests at heart. Sad times :(

You could be totally correct, but we have a guy who could have just sat on an island and lived it up. He donates his salary and his wealth has taken a massive hit. None of us know what goes on behind closed doors and what's accurate all the time, so I have skepticism myself. But appearances are that he's doing everything he can for the country and it's citizens. His love of the country is something he's talked about for many years. Why is he doing all of this? The right reason is at least one of the options we have to consider even if it doesn't feel legitimate.

There's a lot I'd like to say in ^^^response but I'll just eat it so I don't get the thread closed.

I will say that if Biden wins I'll be worried, but he'll be my president and I'll support him and hope he does a great job.

I can explain Trump to you with this:

Does that sound like his pattern of behavior?

It's from here:
https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-...s/syc-20366662

One trait of a narcissist is judging others, something many of us do but something to keep in mind. It would definitely be a struggle for me to judge somebody I didn't know however.

I don't think judging someone in public office, especially the president, is any indication of narcissism.

Well I would say judgment of performance comes with the territory, but some of the judgment of character is in poor taste.

This is a blatant misuse of the term narcissism.
Judgement in and of itself is hardly narcissistic, especially when considering what the judgement is based upon.
As MV points out above.
The President of the US will always be judged upon his actions, regardless of who he is. Be it Trump, Obama, Bush, FDR, Lincoln or Coolidge (Keep cool with Cal!)
This is hardly anything new.
We can argue over the judgement of his character whether it is deserved or not (it is, I mean his comments along with his history have shown his character) but I don’t want to get this thread closed as well.
If Joe wins, I’ll criticize him openly as I would any President.

I don't really follow what this means. It sounds like you think "weighting" means comparing to some past average, or something?

Anyway, I'm not sure how into the weeds you want to get. I think the generalized response here is that this polling stuff isn't ever just making really blithe assumptions that the election will be "normal" or anything like that. In fact, it's often using the exact kinds of general polls (about enthusiasm) that you're referring to to gauge things like turnout, which, if you think the "right track" numbers are immune from the "shy" thing, it means the things weighting can be based on would be, too.

Doesn't mean it can't be wrong anyway, but when it is it's a) not usually very wrong and b) not wrong because of very predictable, common-sense kinda things like we're discussing here.

Do you mean what I posted? If so I stand by it completely. But I don't need to rehash it or argue it, as I said what I believe and a number of medical professionals have said the same. So in the interest of peace, I'll let you have the last word🙂

Re: Who Will be Our Next President?
 

I think the problem is phrases like "some people." It's pretty easy to find any group going too far with any valid criticism. The question is whether we engage with that--the worst version of the argument--or with the version that is appropriately nuanced and has merit. It's quite easy to let our preferred candidate off the hook by focusing on overreactions, because there are always overreactions.

I don't belong to either party, didn't vote for him before, but think he's the best option of the 2 now. Without holding back, I don't like some of the attacks on his character. In fact, I find some of it despicable. The racist stuff is completely uncalled for. When people say he called Mexicans rapists, say he's referring to white supremacists when he said "fine people on both sides", called for the deaths of 5 innocent teeens (Central Park 5), called black nfl players sons of bitches, etc. etc., these are completely false. These are things told by liars or people who believe liars, and those are the people who have divided the country. People blame Trump for the division because of these things he supposedly said, but if he actually didn't say them, it's the people perpetuating these lies who are causing it. This is very upsetting to me and much bigger than either candidate.

No, not you haha

And I'm not criticizing anyone in this thread for judging. I just think that as a whole it's an uglier than ever part of our society right now.

That’s a pretty fair assessment, yes. His words have indeed been twisted with his full comments cut up.
But there is far more to his character being called out then the above examples you’ve provided.
Regardless, I see it bothers you so I’ll drop it out of respect for you.

No it's ok, I don't think he's mister wonderful or anything. I would just like more decency and fairness from the general population. The issues with Trump pale in comparison as far as I'm concerned.

I'm so clueless, sometimes!

To be fair, I wasn’t specific. No worries haha

This is the least compelling of his arguments, to my mind. For one, because the salary thing is symbolic to the point of meaninglessness at his wealth level. Good PR but it's not even a drop in the bucket relative to the policies he enacts and the behavior he exhibits. It doesn't counteract even one tiny mistake, frankly, in the broad scheme of things.

There's also an either-or aspect to it: it's a trivial amount of money no matter what, but especially if you think he's telling the truth about his wealth. And if he's not, and the amount does matter, then the character you think you see from foregoing it would be more than offset by the lack of character involved in lying about said wealth.

He's doing this for himself. He likes attention. Simple as that. That's why he kept holding rallies after he won, and why every report we get says he spends most of his time reading tweets and watching cable news. I'm sure a lot of people become President for this, for notions of history and legacy and all that. To be frank, it's such a meat grinder, running for President, and so obviously awful, that I'm pretty sure really damaged people doing it for some deep reason of insecurity, are overwhelmingly the people most likely to subject themselves to it.

Re: Who Will be Our Next President?
 

Let's not let this get any more specific than it already has, though. The question was who you thought would win, not even who you wanted to, let alone the many reasons you want them to. I've left it stretch because, duh, it's a big important event and everyone's been pretty cool so far, and it's all we'll be thinking about today, but I do just want to remind everyone of that. :)

Thanks in advance.

In that case I think Biden will win because of the mail-in voter fraud the Democrats have been working on for four years - then a pandemic happens that conveniently pushes the plan through with a built-in excuse to use mail-in voting nationwide.

Certainly a possibility. It's just incomprehensible for me to believe someone his age would go through all that. If I were him I wouldn't be doing anything.

Sorry it's hard for me to contain myself. 4 years go I didn't even know the difference between a Republican and a Democrat, or a conservative and a liberal. Now I'm gung ho and could go on forever. Even thought I'm in a Democrat state, most people I encounter agree with me about these things. When I find someone who disagrees, they won't talk to me. So now I have all this pent up energy.

I'm not sure why. This is, in fact, exactly what people in his position often do. What else are they gonna do, when they have the money to buy more or less what they want? At that point the only thrill is from conquest, from fame, from power. In many ways it's the only thing left to do, and for someone who even his biggest fans have to agree loves attention, this doesn't seem too mysterious. It's totally on brand and easily explained, I think.

I suspect there are many people like you in that regard, yeah. The surprises have come in large part because we had a relatively static electorate for awhile there, and for both good and ill a very unusual candidate (up against a really unpopular one last time) meant a whole lot of new people engaged in the process who never were before. It's stymied a lot of people who got way too comfortable with the old political fault lines. Those things never last. This one won't either. Be interesting to see what the new standard "party lines" are a decade or two from now, or if the whole concept becomes archaic in a little while.

That said, the "everyone I know" thing is common to all sides. There's a famous quote from Pauline Kael about this: "I don't see how Nixon won, nobody I know voted for him." And IIRC this was in '72, when he won by 20 points. Usually more a commentary about us and the circles we run in than the electorate as a whole.

I even have a personal example here: where I live, it's overwhelmingly Biden signs. Where my parents live, it's overwhelming Trump signs. My impression of what "everyone" thinks would literally shift overnight if I still lived at home and then moved out one day.

The evidence for either claim is vanishingly small, but sure.

DP answered this question for us a long time ago 😆

https://youtu.be/gAjR4_CbPpQ

Yes, I’m really proud of myself for this one. You’ll never hear it another way, just like My Cocaine and Crisp Rat.

I would think the majority of filthy rich, when they reach retirement age, retire. The ones who don't I guess you're assuming they do it for personal glory. Some could, but given the amount of work he does, I think it's fair to say there's an equal chance Trump is doing it for love of country, especially since he's talked about it for years. Of course that might not be a thought for someone who wants to form an opinion based on his bold and brash personality. It could be either, and my guess would be that it's a combination of the two, and that wouldn't be a bad thing in my mind as long as he does put in the work. Why is Biden doing it? He's older than Trump and not to be mean but he doesn't even appear capable. He is also very wealthy, but unlike Trump he's made his money due to being in politics. Has he selflessly done a lot for his country in the last 47 years?

Wait wait.


@Yoda said only yes or no responses. And as a person who has a long and storied history of getting banned for getting political heated on this forum, I stuck to a single one liner response. You guys are full on writing essays!


Don't get me started... ;)

Hey, how's the weather in fantasy land there?


Voter fraud for the past four years when YOUR candidate has made claims that he would stop counting votes after today (which he can't and won't do). Give me a break.

Re: Who Will be Our Next President?
 

Gonna ask that we cut off that particular line of discussion right there. Shouldn't have even gotten that far.

The latitude so far has been the result of no one person making claims that were too strong. Let's get back to that, please.

Hmm, I'm not sure if that's true. Filthy rich people are usually in public life, and that's not a coincidence. It's easy for people who aren't rich to think that they would never want anything more than that, but in practice it doesn't appear to be true.

Regardless, talking about these people in general isn't the right question, because in this case we have specific facts about the individual. See below.

I don't know what work you mean. As I said, we have so, so many testimonials about him just sort of watching TV and tweeting most of the day, and being specifically disinterested in the tougher, more boring parts of the job. There is very little evidence that there's a lot of serious governance going on. He has a lot of energy for someone, I'll agree with that, it just seems directed mostly towards media coverage and petty grievances and stuff.

I don't think that's fair to say at all, and in fact I think there's a mountain of evidence otherwise. We have a couple decades of him talking himself up in the press, starting TV shows, yakkin' on Twitter, et cetera. You obviously can't believe he started a TV show all about himself for the "love of country," so we go into this question already knowing this is someone who loves attention and loves talking themselves up. This is obviously true even if you really like the guy, nobody really denies it. Why you would somehow think selflessness is the more likely explanation is, to me, kinda perplexing. I've never heard someone make that argument. They usually just argue that they don't care what his motives are as long as he delivers policies they like, fights the people they hate, etc.

I don't know what him having "talked about it for years" is supposed to establish. It's perfectly consistent with the self-involved explanations, as much or moreso than than the selfless ones.

Biden is not wealthy by political standards, not that it matters much to me either way. These kinds of questions are not relevant. They're fine to consider when you're doing a straight "who do I vote for?" consideration, but they have no bearing when deciding which individual things to criticize or not, or when assessing each person's character granularly. "Better than X" is not the same thing as "good." And making that mistake is how we keep getting such bad candidates on both sides.

Just wanna say this: the weather is beautiful right now just about everywhere. This race is far from won by either side, and this is probably going to be one of the closest races any of us have ever seen.

How do we come to the determination that rich people, who happen to be past retirement age btw, are usually in public life? And that's not the same thing as taking a very difficult job.

To me, he appears busier than presidents of the past. He always seems to be on the go and I don't recall him taking vacations like others.

I don't think selflessness is the more likely explanation, but it could be an explanation, or at least part of it. Sure, there's evidence of self promotion, but that's not evidence against wanting to help the country or do some good.


Just wondering why one candidate gets questioned but not the other. If we question one's motivation it's fair to question the other's.

The question was about "filthy rich" people. Perhaps you should define the term, if you wanna delve into it. But if you go down the Forbes' list you'll have heard of most of them in some capacity. Maybe flip the burden of proof and ask yourself how many filthy rich people are anonymous, and how you'd know that, if they actually were?

Also, note that the job being difficult is not in dispute. You don't get credit for taking a tough job if you don't do a lot of the tough parts. You also don't get credit for it if you don't know it's tough when you run for it. We've got hundreds of tweets from the last administration talking about all the things he'd do differently if he was President (many of which are inarguably at odds with what's been said and done since), for example, strongly suggesting he thinks or thought the job was a lot easier than it was, as every heckler in the crowd does.

I'm not sure how you want me to respond to things like "he appears" and "seems to be." I can't account for whatever 3,000-mile-high impression you might be getting from just seeing him doing a lot of stuff.

As I said, even his critics must admit his energy level is impressive for his age. But constantly tweeting or holding rallies is not an example of working hard. Motion is not action, and movement is not work. In fact, I'd argue most of the real work of being President is by definition the boring behind-the-scenes stuff, so the more I see the President out at rallies and being noticeably in public, the less real work I tend to think they're doing. Most people understand this on some level: it's a running joke that politicians love to get in on photo ops and take credit for stuff, and this is kinda what it looks like. Being visibly on TV a lot is not an example of work, and is perfectly in line with the desire of attention I've been talking to.

Correct, it isn't...but it doesn't have to be, because that wasn't the question/claim. The question/claim is about what he's cared about in the past and why he might want to be President. I don't begrudge him talking himself up (although it can get patently silly, like when he pretended to be his own PR guy and made up flattering stories about himself) or starting a TV show all about him, but it'd be kinda nuts to ignore all that stuff when you ask yourself why he might like to be in the most visible job in the world. One of these explanations is 100% consistent with decades of observed behavior, and the other is just a speculative thing that could be part of it because nobody can disprove it.

I'm not sure why saying "just wondering" changes what I'm saying about relevance. You are free to wonder whatever you liked, but you posed this question in a response to me, in a discussion entirely about President Trump's character and motivation.

Re: Who Will be Our Next President?
 

I have so much to say politically, but have kept THAT pent up around here for 4 years, lol...


His salary is a drop in the bucket, but truth doesn't matter, as long as the people like hearing it. I watch all his rallies and tally in my head what they cheer at most.... I think some people voted for Trump "just to see what it would be like" or for entertainment value, especially if they don't believe the system will ever help them. Some people vote for the challenger if their life isn't going well (COVID, economy, personal life, etc).


With social media now as a huge factor, everything is reduced to emotions rather than ideology (which has been lost, unfortunately).

Re: Who Will be Our Next President?
 

I remember Election night here was really fun 4 years ago.
You should let Sexy Celebrity come back just for tonight to recapture the magic! ;)

I'm not sure how I'd define filthy rich to be honest with you. Maybe worth over 100mil? Idk, but that's also not the only qualification I'm talking about. There's also past retirement age, taking a difficult job, and doing it for personal glory, and that last part comes with the assumption that we know who's doing it for personal glory which is not an assumption I'm willing to make.

At a time when we have to be skeptical of what we hear or read, do we really know that he's not doing the tough parts? I think saying the job is more difficult than he thought is an honest and normal thing to say. If he didn't know then, he certainly knows now and he's still trying for a second term.

Do you think he's accomplished much as President compared to Presidents of the past?

Sure, but we still don't know that he doesn't put in a lot of work.

I don't feel I'm speculating that he wants to help the country; I'm going by the fact that he's said that. From there, I'm not saying I believe him, I'm saying it's reasonable to think there could be some truth to it.

Fair enough when it comes to our conversation.

His salary is a drop in the bucket, but it's still a positive and it goes against what some people (not here) say about him doing this just for money. Not sure what you mean about the truth because I think they all tell lies. It does make me especially sick when Biden or Harris looks into the camera and says he called Mexicans rapists because they know damn well it's a lie and that it hurts the country. You want to question Trump's character, be my guest, but when they do that you better question their character as well.

Not tonight, he voted Biden:homealone: