ITT we liveboard the 2016 debates

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

the loser debate is starting right now.



let's do this.

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

i don't know what pills rick perry is taking but i want them

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

this is going to destroy my almost 1:1 post:rep ratio

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

haha what the hell is jim gilmore even doing

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

there are more people on the stage than in the crowd

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

"why is donald trump so cool and why are you guys so lame?"

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

bobby jindal is like a little kid trying to sound like an adult by making his voice deeper.

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

is lindsey graham alright? i'm worried.

[Yoda]

Every time they say "first Republican debate" I mentally add "of 984."

[Yoda]

By the way, I think Fiorina's pretty sharp. I don't think she has much chance of the nomination, but she might be a good Veep choice. In like nine years, I mean, or whenever people start actually voting.

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

love how they keep namedropping the successful candidates

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

carly fiorina is definitely coming across the best out of everybody up here.

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

sick rantorum has such a magnificent face.

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

rick perry would've had a much better career if he took that job as george bush impersonator on snl.

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

dog frank

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

wait what question was graham even asked

[donniedarko]

Missed the first 40 minutes, just turned on. My dog keeps freaking out at the "times over" bell

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

getting some joad cressbeckler vibes from gilmore

[donniedarko]

Jindal isn't too bad, I feel like 2012 he could've made a big splash.

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

all seven candidates on stage to immediately drop out after debate

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

perry dropping the h-bomb

[donniedarko]

Firiona :up:

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

those couple of claps you heard in the background were actually a standing ovation

[donniedarko]

Pataki looks like a giant

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

"you want to see a war on women? come with me..."

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

why is lindsey graham talking about isis

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

was perry just pretending to fondle obama's balls?

[donniedarko]

Pataki, Gilmore, and Graham all gave hack answers

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

you have 15 seconds to come up with your own timeless quote. go.

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

graham is forever looking for his own tip o'neill

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

so apparently only two of the candidates can count

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

rick perry throws his hat behind rick perry for president

[donniedarko]

Fiorina and Jindal came off the strongest

Graham and Gilmore the weakest

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

graham going for the pity vote

[donniedarko]

graham going for the pity vote

He actually does manage to make me feel bad for him

[Yoda]

rick perry throws his hat behind rick perry for president
That's a key endorsement.

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

http://im.ezgif.com/tmp/ezgif-1905758996.gif

[Yoda]

https://twitter.com/andylevy/status/629409958354923520
The general conservative reaction on Twitter is pretty much unanimous about Fiorina winning, to the point where she was probably better off being in this debate, as opposed to fighting for air time in the later one. Kind of an interesting game theory thing there, where missing the cut could be better for anyone who does exceptionally well in it, but worse for everyone else.

[Sexy Celebrity]

Oh, what fun. A Republican commentary.

What time does President Trump come on? 8 P.M. EST?

[donniedarko]

9 eastern I believe

[Sexy Celebrity]

9 eastern I believe
Ugh. Same time a very important eviction episode of BIG BROTHER comes on.

[foster]

I guess I missed all the fun.
I looked at fox and I don't see anything about a debate

[Sexy Celebrity]

It's on the FOX News channel (you need a cable service for that) and it starts at 9. At least, Trump and the real fun starts at 9.

[foster]

Okay I've never gone to that channel before, didn't know it existed. I see it now.

I think I'll DVR and not watch it live though so I can fast forward to the gooey trump center

[Sexy Celebrity]

It's starting now.

[donniedarko]

Wow pretty full

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

i love how they have to clarify who john kasich is every time he's mentioned

[Yoda]

He's actually from a tiny town called McKees Rocks I grew up in.

Anyway, I'm gonna be like half an hour late on this but hopefully I'll catch up.

[donniedarko]

Hopefully Carson/Huckabee get replaced for the next debate

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

off to a great start already

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

wait what the **** is happening

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

i'm already dying. every single facial expression was genius.

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

oh my god this is so good.

[donniedarko]

Suprise suprise :laugh:

This is going to be fun

[donniedarko]

Rand Paul getting some jabs getting in, wow. This is interesting

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

this is the first time i have ever heard ben carson talk

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

ben carson knows all about brains so he should be president

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

calm down marco

[donniedarko]

Tough question

[donniedarko]

calm down marco

No, that was strong

[donniedarko]

Rubio and Jeb off to strong starts

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

pretty brave of jeb to brag about "earning" the worst name ever

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

**** you trump

[donniedarko]

:laugh: Trump is a God

[donniedarko]

**** you trump

That was gold

[donniedarko]

I've never seen a debate like this

[foster]

gotta love that beginning, immediately throwing trump under the bus and ganging up on him.. lol

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

this is surpassing my expectations in every way

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

oh my god ted cruz talking is the funniest thing i've ever seen

[Fabulous]

Whenever I see Ted Cruz, I instantly think of Kevin Malone from The Office.

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

rand paul, keep your hands at your side please. you're making me nervous

[donniedarko]

Paul is spot on about ISIS

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

didn't realize garry shandling was running for president

[donniedarko]

Jeb smirking, haha

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

jeb doesn't actually need those glasses, he just wants to look smarter than his brother.

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

they should just direct every question at trump from now on

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

evidence: this one racist dude told me this one time

[donniedarko]

Hispanic democrats for trump, wow

[donniedarko]

Highlight of the debate:

http://streamable.com/s52g

[Yoda]

I'm way behind, but that Rubio redirect on the experience question was smoooooth.

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

bold move by kasich to throw his support behind trump

[Yoda]

Really glad to see Bush asked the question about dynastic politics. Clinton should get it, too, though I'll be surprised if she does. It's a genuine thing.

[Yoda]

"What I say is what I say."

I admit, Trump's position on that is unassailable.

[donniedarko]

Cruz and Paul are the least dodgy

[donniedarko]

F*ck Christy. Emotions>Laws in his book

[donniedarko]

Bring up the bridge Rand

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

rand paul as played by dana carvey

[donniedarko]

Damn straight Rand

**** you Chris

[donniedarko]

Rand should just bring up the bridge, and ask if Christy cared about safety then

[Yoda]

I like when they finish talking just before the bell goes off. It makes it sound like they got the answer right.

[donniedarko]

Boos for Chris! Props

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

rand is really riled up tonight

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

ted cruz will personally murder anyone who joins isis

[Yoda]

I'm really impressed by the questions. Very tough, very fair. And pretty much entirely about things at speak directly to the kinds of things likely to matter to primary voters.

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

can't decide if cruz or walker is the most despicable person in the room

[Yoda]

I assume that's a synonym for conservative, because otherwise the answer is obviously Trump.

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

"trump, please ramble incoherently about whatever you feel like. you have 60 seconds."

[donniedarko]

Kasich loves Trump, lol

[donniedarko]

I'm really impressed by the questions. Very tough, very fair. And pretty much entirely about things at speak directly to the kinds of things likely to matter to primary voters.

Definitely, glad they're not going easy on anyone

[Yoda]

Why wouldn't he? He's beating up all the guys ahead of him.

[Yoda]

Hilarious that Trump says "Mexicans are coming over!" and Rubio's all "most of them are from Guetemala." I guarantee Trump had no idea. He still might not.

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

jeb's smile is by far the most adorable out of all of them

[Yoda]

Paul and Christie with a good exchange on data collection. That was a really solid back and forth about competing philosophies. Refreshingly substantive.

[foster]

Dr. in favor of water boarding. lol.

[Yoda]

I'm not gonna lie, I find it difficult to pay attention when Cruz talks.

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

wait who does ben carson think is going to be the candidate? does he know what candidate means?

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

the only logical explanation is that ben carson is a socialist

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

huckabee has really gone off the deep end these last few years

[Yoda]

I'm amazed that there's an actual substantive debate happening in between the sideshow moments with Trump. I thought he'd crowd all that out.

[donniedarko]

Just phase social security out into a private plan

[donniedarko]

Wow most I've agreed with Huckabee

[Yoda]

Just phase social security out into a private plan

Nah, I have a feeling this whole fingers in our ears thing is gonna pay off BIG later.

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

"chris, you're fired."

[Yoda]

https://twitter.com/seanmdav/status/629470616727486465

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

chris is definitely going to poison trump tonight

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

fox is all in on fiorina huh

[foster]

walker.. wow. I would piss Iran off and paint them into a corner like a dying wounded animal. Surely that won't lead to anything bad.

It's like this dude never saw The Dark Knight Rises

[donniedarko]

Huckabee might just be winning this

[Yoda]

walker.. wow. I would piss Iran off and paint them into a corner like a dying wounded animal. Surely that won't lead to anything bad.

It's like this dude never saw The Dark Knight Rises
"You moved to a blue state. I was born in it. Molded by it."

[Yoda]

Christie and Huckabee with a really good argument.

I can't believe an actual debate broke out at this besuited street brawl.

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

i really can't imagine any of these people getting the nomination.

[foster]

damn i actually just meant the dark knight. That's how they explained the Joker coming into being.

[Yoda]

I liked the Trump finance question. There's a lot of reason to think he's not actually much of a businessman. Certainly not on a level commensurate with his self styled reputation.

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

it's official, jeb bush kills babies

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

"culture of life"

[Yoda]

i really can't imagine any of these people getting the nomination.
I think this is one of those statements that ends up being more about the speaker.

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

probably

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

roger ailes really hates trump

[Yoda]

A more serious follow up: Rubio hasn't had a bad answer all night. Even to someone really left of center, I think he's pretty easy to envision as sufficiently center-right.

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

"and that child... was rihanna"

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

rubio and kasich have sounded the most sensible to me tonight

[donniedarko]

A more serious follow up: Rubio hasn't had a bad answer all night. Even to someone really left of center, I think he's pretty easy to envision as sufficiently center-right.

He's answered well, but hasn't shined unfortunately. On a smaller stage maybe he would be more noticable

[Yoda]

https://twitter.com/jbouie/status/629474898172362752

[Yoda]

Yay I'm almost caught up.

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

walker with a sensible, if intentionally vague, response

[Yoda]

I think vague responses are, sadly, often the most sensible in a purely pragmatic sense.

[Yoda]

As we go on the answers are going to get vaguer. Early on there's enough need to stand out that we can get more candid responses.

[Yoda]

Oh man, I just got to the Trump "when did you become a Republican?" question.

Do not piss Megyn Kelly off. She will cut you.

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

romney would mop the floor with all of these guys

[Yoda]

It's always funny how much liberals love conservatives after they lose.

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

ted cruz has been crying during the commercial breaks

[donniedarko]

It's always funny how much liberals love conservatives after they lose.

So true. McCain is a liberals best friend now

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

and ben carson has apparently been napping during the commercials.

[donniedarko]

I must say props to Carson for brining up Ukraine

[Yoda]

So true. McCain is a liberals best friend now
And before he was the nominee. I heard tons of people refer to him as one of the good ones, someone they might consider, yadda yadda.

[Yoda]

https://twitter.com/petersuderman/status/629481569212698624

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

KILL PEOPLE AND BREAK THINGS

[Yoda]

That sounds like an MSI song.

[Yoda]

I'm looking forward to all the headlines informing me about which things in this debate John Oliver will "TOTALLY DESTROY" over the weekend.

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

can't wait for god to come out

[foster]

carson was right that they forgot about him lol. dude had 3 questions. but it's tough with a field this deep.

Maybe this will sound dumb but I don't know some of these peoples names.
They should really be putting their names at the bottom of the screen as they answer questions.

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

oh my god they're really going out on top

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

kasich really pushing for the mailman vote

[Yoda]

That'll hurt him with dogs.

[donniedarko]

Haha, nice one liner by Rubio

[Yoda]

I came into tonight thinking Rubio was the most likely nominee, and nothing tonight has changed my mind.

[Yoda]

Oh man, are they using the poll average to determine closing statement order? Because if they are, Trump would get the last word.

[Yoda]

And that word will be "classy."

[Yoda]

Christie grew up in an ice cream factory? I feel like a joke would be inelegant.

[Yoda]

https://twitter.com/radleybalko/status/629486633935630337

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

what planet does ted cruz think he's on where the days are that long

[donniedarko]

I think Huckabee won tonight

[donniedarko]

Here's how I'd rank the performances:

Huckabee
Rubio
Kasich
Bush
Carson
Trump
Paul
Cruz
Walker
Christie

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

classic bush

[foster]

Bush is the one holding us back with all his anti stem cell religious BS.
Americans are going to have to go to china in the future when they want their lives saved.

[foster]

incredibly poor closing statement by the neurosurgeon. Don't end with a joke. bad bad choice

[Yoda]

Finally got to go back and watch bits of the earlier debate (there are a few candidates there I just don't need to hear). Fiorina killed it, as everyone already said.

But boy, awful questions, especially at the start. I hate hate hate questions about someone's standings in the polls. We have plenty of pundits, we don't need the candidates to start commenting on the state of the race, too. Ask them serious questions about ideology, policy, and record. Maybe, much later on, you can ask those questions when there's a clear sense that someone is hanging on for reasons other than the chance of winning, but this early, it's absurd.

[Captain Steel]

I was surprised that the top 10 debate didn't turn into the circus I was expecting.
I was also surprised how well the candidates respected the bell. (I've seen many where they just can't seem to get them to stop talking.)

Trump seemed to drop dramatically right out of the gate with the question about staying with the party.
Then he dodged questions (i.e. his evidence about the Mexican government). His problem is people love his tough talk, but when it comes to actual plans to address issues his stance is like, "I've made lots of money, so trust me, I know what I'm doing."

[seanc]

Just getting to watch the debate on youtube now.

Can one of you guys give me the bullet points as to what Dodd Frank is? Google search was less than fruitful.

[foster]

disappointing all the republicans want to force rape victims into back alleys for abortions.
I thought we'd be past this.

[Yoda]

That's a silly caricature of the issue, and I think you know it.

[foster]

That's a silly caricature of the issue, and I think you know it.

I thought everyone asked about the issue said they were against it altogether, even when it was a rape victim.

I also thought people getting 'back alley' abortions is exactly what used to happen when it was illegal.

I didn't think I was being silly. Maybe I have some facts wrong ?

[Yoda]

Yes, I think you have some facts wrong, but what you're saying would be inaccurate even if you didn't:

1. You said "force" people into back alleys, as if anyone who would have one when they're legal has no choice but to have one when they aren't.

2. You said they "want" to force people into this situation, not that it will merely be the consequence of their proposals.

3. Back alley abortions "used to happen" in the binary sense of "did they ever take place?" But not in the sense of being widespread or especially dangerous, no. In fact, the relative safety of the procedure even when it was illegal was one of the key arguments abortion proponents made to help their cause. Planned Parenthood, for example, argued that 90% of pre-Roe abortions were done by qualified physicians.
And this is without getting into the fact that "back alley" isn't remotely literal, but seems to be a deliberately grotesque catch-all for anything without oversight. Which, if pro-choice people are so concerned about, really ought to be reflected in their support for abortion clinic regulations. Which it pretty much never is.

So you can argue that the pro-life position in question is misguided, but you can't do that by turning it into a cartoon that assumes the worst possible motives of the opposing side. If you get to do that, then pro-life people get to talk about how the pro-choice side "wants" to dismember babies in utero, or abort children just because they have Downs syndrome, or a hundred other horrible things that are the consequence of their position rather (one would hope) the aim.

[seanc]

I'm surprised you guys liked the debate as much as you did. I just don't think people had enough time to express their ideas enough for us to get more then the talking points we already knew. I do think part of that is the canidates fault though. They are asked what their specific policies would be and almost to a man they resort back to generalities. I thought Rubio and Huckabee came out looking the best. I really liked Huckabee in the debates eight years ago and then he turned me off over the past few years. Maybe he can turn me around again. Rubio remains the canidate I am most interested in. I am going to be glad to learn more about him.

Cruz and Walker are insufferable. They seem to come from the Obama school of debate. If I tell you how dumb this administration is you will vote for me, right? Pretty please. I don't think you need to never mention the other guy but don't make that your platform. Those two are in my too typical politician to get my blessing camp.

I don't think I am a Christie fan but I will say the guy answers the questions, and I don't think he is all hot air. I thought he won the exchange with Huckabee on SS despite me probably agreeing more with Huckabee. He dodged a bit though, never good.

Paul is getting a pass from me this round. He was not impressive but I have heard him talk economics enough to know I will end up liking him.

Trump is ridiculous. The fact that he was on that stage is a huge reflection of our whoever barks the loudest is the rightest culture. Joke doesn't even come close to summing him up.

Carson is the opposite end of the spectrum. The guy is going to get buried because he is too nice. I would love to see three people with his mind run and debate each other for a year. He would be able surround himself with smart people and would actually be humble enough to listen to them too. I could have faith in politics again if more people acted and talked like him. A shame we won't probably even get to vote for him in the primaries or hear his concrete ideas. He will get ground up by the machine.

[Yoda]

I liked it relative to what I expected. I mean, there were ten people on stage, and one of them was Donald Trump. I expected it to be entertaining, but full of ridiculous one-liners and transparent grabs of attention, with next to no meaningful argument. By that standard, it was way better than I thought it would be.

This would have been a pretty awful debate if it were the two opposing candidates, or even if it took place 6 months from now, but this f ar in advance, with this many people involved, it could've been a lot worse.

[seanc]

I liked it relative to what I expected. I mean, there were ten people on stage, and one of them was Donald Trump. I expected it to be entertaining, but full of ridiculous one-liners and transparent grabs of attention, with next to no meaningful argument. By that standard, it was way better than I thought it would be.

This would have been a pretty awful debate if it were the two opposing candidates, or even if it took place 6 months from now, but this f ar in advance, with this many people involved, it could've been a lot worse.

Can't argue with that, ten is way too many. I just get so tired of X is bad and Y would be good speechifying. I suppose this is the first time a lot of people are hearing these guys talk though.

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

jim webb is a mix of phil hartman's bill clinton and phil hartman's unfrozen caveman lawyer.

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

lol at sanders and webb laughing when chafee started talking.

[Yoda]

Sanders tapped his shoulder affectionately just beforehand.

[Captain Steel]

The initial back & forth between Anderson and Hillary sounded like two kids reading their lines and rehearsing a scene in a high school play.

[Yoda]

I guess Lincoln Chafee would be the kid who was cast as a tree.

[Yoda]

If I were a Democrat I'd be so mad about the way that "black lives matter" question was worded. But as a Republican it's confusingly refreshing to see ridiculous debate questions flung the other way, too.

[Captain Steel]

Anderson's not doing a good job - the people in the middle are getting all the time.

[Yoda]

Oof, that Chafee answer on Glass Steagal is going to torpedo the chance he didn't actually have anyway.

[Captain Steel]

Man, there are a lot of debate faux pas going on - Sanders went deaf and fell asleep at one point (can't blame him), O'Malley's kissing butt every five minutes, Webb is stuttering and complaining about his air time, and Chafee (when he get his once-an-hour chance to speak) starts making excuses about his record and saying the moderator's being "rough" on him!
Oh, and Hillary sounds like a shrill harpy... she's just being herself which is why she seems to be doing well. ;)

[Yoda]

My favorite part of any Democratic debate is when they say "free" as a synonym for "taxpayer funded."

[Captain Steel]

My favorite part just happened - when Anderson said he guesses everyone in the room has smoked pot!
(They're passing a bong around in the back row, dude!)

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

i only made it about halfway through because it was so boring, but hillary obviously came off really well because she lives for this stuff. i really liked bernie but he had a few slip-ups but i also only saw him on some of his weaker issues. i have no clue what the other three dudes were doing up there and i just kept wishing they would get off the stage. webb is insane, o'malley is boring and dumb, and chafee somehow comes off as more pathetic than jeb bush.

[Yoda]

My wife and I pretty much instantly decided to start using "IT WAS MY FIRST DAY" as a catch-all excuse for any screw up.

[Captain Steel]

Yay!

[Captain Steel]

This debate was more like Republicans vs. The Media.

One thing that bothered me was the moderator contradicting (& debating) Trump during his closing statement.
I'm not standing up for Trump because I'm a fan or anything, this would've bothered me no matter who it was. Opening and closing statements are much like those in trials - only the speaker has the floor at those times - they are not open to objections, comments, questions, arguments or interruptions. In other words, closing statements are sacrosanct - they are the one time no one can interrupt. So the moderator arguing with Trump's point during his closing statement was completely inappropriate.

If the moderator disagreed with Trump's point (or even if he took it personally & felt it was a complete falsehood) he could say so in one of the post-debate follow-ups, in an editorial or anywhere else EXCEPT during a candidate's closing statement.

[Yoda]

Yeah, a moderator correcting someone's closing statement? Making sarcastic remarks about font size? Asking some of the same questions asked in previous debates? Ugh. It was horrendous. But on the other hand, it's always nice when the mask slips and everybody gets to see what's been underneath the whole time.

Anyway, Rubio killed it, and I mean that almost literally: he may have decapitated Jeb's campaign. That attack was telegraphed earlier in the day (gee, great idea giving the guy you're going to attack to choose a response), came off as really forced (it was a silly line of attack and Jeb's not that kind of candidate), and completely backfired. It'd have been a bad idea against anyone, but it was particularly ill-advised against Rubio, who knows kung fu. He's just better at this stuff.

[Yoda]

Related: here's hoping the next debate implements a harsher polling cutoff. You only had to average 2.5% to get in this one, which is less than the margin of error. That means someone could be included in this debate despite having effectively no support, and then talk almost as often as a frontrunner.

We've had three debates. We're three months away from Iowa. We don't need to see people who haven't been able to scrape enough support to get outside the margin of error. That means you, Mike Huckabee. That means you, John Kasich. And that probably means you too, Rand Paul (even though he remains one of the more substantive debaters).

[Yoda]

ACTIVE JOKE PROTOCOL. TRIGGER RELATABILITY SUBROUTINE.

https://twitter.com/danmericaCNN/status/659783008472444928
JOKE STATUS: COMPLETED.

ANALYZING LACK OF MIRTHFUL RESPONSE.

[90sAce]

disappointing all the republicans want to force rape victims into back alleys for abortions.
I thought we'd be past this.
Doesn't matter if they're a rape victim - the only issue that should be relevant is at what point life begins.

I'd say that early term abortion is definitely not ending a human life since no brain or consciousness exists, so there shouldn't be a problem with it being legal regardless of the reason.

The "rape and incest" stuff however is just rhetoric and distracts from the actual issue.

[Captain Steel]

On your mark... Get set...

[Captain Steel]

Man those under-tier guys were on fire! :D

[seanc]

The undercard spent twenty minutes literally not answering the questions put before them and then they and Fox News spent half an hour congratulating each other on having a "real" debate. 2016 may be the year I become apolitical. This all feels like a farce.

[Yoda]

Hey, look, serious debate questions.

[mark f]

A serious debate question would be "Why do YOU deserve to win Project Runway?"

[Yoda]

John Kasich barely made this stage, and he's just straight up interjecting himself into other people's answers.

[Captain Steel]

John Kasich barely made this stage, and he's just straight up interjecting himself into other people's answers.

Indeed.
He's beginning to appear a bit whiny. (And Trump's disrespectful insults toward him seem to be drawing that out.)

This is entirely superficial, but does Kasich have a slight nervous tic?
I noticed it last time - where he appeared to have some uncontrollable facial movements when he's not speaking.

Another superficial observation - I don't like Carly's top. I like her (as a candidate), but that green sweater she's wearing looks a little too casual when up there next to all those men in their dark business suits. She looked much more commanding in her fashions from previous debates.

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

kasich moonlights as a basketball coach/garry shandling impersonator

rand schooling trump on TPP has been the highlight of the night so far.

[Frightened Inmate No. 2]

ben carson is so so insane it actually hurts my brain if i think about it too long.

[Yoda]

https://twitter.com/JRussellMI/status/664293598859386880
Second in time, was first earlier, polling at 3%, and he has the gall to complain. Wow.

[Yoda]

Fiorina starts closing statement with "imagine a Clinton Presidency." A guy in the audience yells "No!”

[Yoda]

Ben Carson says he was violent in his youth, and once tried to stab someone. This has led to the incredibly bizarre spectacle of journalists trying to prove he didn't and another candidate (Trump) running ads to that effect.

Welcome to 2016, where you can attack a candidate by saying they didn't try to stab someone.

[Yoda]

So, there's a Democratic debate tonight; if you hadn't heard, it's probably in large part because the Democratic party has wayyyy less incentive to publicize these things, or to have many debates at all. Party leadership wants as few opportunities for conflict as possible when there's a clear frontrunner, and when that frontrunner has near-universal name recognition there's a pretty good chance they don't even want/need people to watch.

[Yoda]

FYI, there's another Democratic debate the Democratic National Committee probably doesn't want you to watch tomorrow night.

[seanc]

At least they won't talk about terrorism. They are going to talk about the issues that are actually on people's minds. ;)

[Captain Steel]

I don't know - I think Hillary is going to tell us how she will beat ISIS with her personal e-mail server. But in the end, "What difference, at this point, does it make?"

According to Bernie Sanders, "All we have to do is fix the climate - then, when we stop the global warming and it gets cold again, those people who are used to the heat of the desert - the ISIS terrorists - will freeze their ices off! Oy vey!"

O'Malley says we don't have to worry about terrorism because all lives DON'T matter!

[Yoda]

https://twitter.com/allahpundit/status/678386740457922560

[Captain Steel]

Who's tuning in tonight?
(I missed the first tier. Did Rand Paul reconsider and show up?)

On FBN. 9:00 pm for the front-runners.

[Yoda]

Yeah, I saw it. Pretty interesting. My least favorite part of these debates is where a genuine, substantive disagreement about policy breaks out and Chris Christie decides to paint it as some meaningless procedural squabble that only egghead Senators care about. It's kind of effective when he picks the right spot, but he seems to go to that well any time there's a sustained back and forth, even if it's about meaningful things.

Christie wasn't being remotely truthful in that exchange with Rubio, either: there are direct quotes of him saying all the things he was accused of. Pretty galling to see how many of these guys decide to look better on the stage no matter what it costs them in the aftermath.

Trump, I have to admit, was at his best (not that that's saying much). All the bombast makes you really take notice when he gets serious and he picked his spots last night. Except for China and tariffs. Good grief. I think that's like the third time Trump's gone off on some ignorant rant only to have Rubio come in and explain why what he just said is nonsense.

[Yoda]

So, Iowa is (mercifully) around the corner, which means we're just a few weeks away from a lot of nothing candidates dropping out, so we can finally see what kind of support the actual contenders have when the race isn't insanely fragmented.

The most intriguing story is, of course, how much of Trump's support is real. I continue to think he's a long shot for several reasons, but the fact that he hasn't collapsed yet has to count for a little something, so I'd bump my odds of him winning the nomination from 10% to, I dunno, 20%. That percentage is basically how likely I think it is that we're actually witnessing a major political shift, and that this is the first part of a sizable backlash against a host of things (wage stagnation, political correctness, et cetera). I think it's far more likely that the frustrations he represents will be moderated and folded back into the platforms and tenor of both parties to varying degrees, but there's always a chance that something big is changing. And if it is, you can rethink Sanders' chances on the Democratic side, too.

I still wouldn't bet on it, though. The early steps usually matter for the purposes of momentum, but that only matters if all the contenders are roughly acceptable to the party and its voters. If they're not, then the actual delegates being awarded are more important, and none of the early stats matter much from that perspective, because they're awarded proportionally: you don't get a bonus for winning or hitting some line of support. Other states, however, are winner-take-all.

In other words, it's totally plausible that, even if Trump wins a few early states, other viable candidates could just wait him out. Normally people drop out when this happens, but they have less reason to do so this time. If someone more broadly acceptable stays in long enough to get to the later contests, they stand an excellent chance of simply outpacing him, delegate-wise.

I'd still pick Rubio to win (preference aside) over any other single candidate, and probably just barely over the rest of the field combined. I'd give significant odds it's either Rubio or Cruz, too.

[Yoda]

Some admittedly subjective percentage chances of a Republican President in various hypothetical matchups:

Rubio vs. Sanders: 75%
Rubio vs. Clinton: 60-65%
Cruz vs. Clinton: 50%
Cruz vs. Sanders: 60%
Trump vs. Clinton: 20%
Trump vs. Sanders: Congratulations, President-Elect Bloomberg.

[Yoda]

Dan McLaughlin on Twitter likes to post this every week or so:

http://sd.keepcalm-o-matic.co.uk/i/keep-calm-it-won-t-be-trump.png

[Captain Steel]

So Trump is dropping out of the last debate because of ... Megan Kelly?

I don't get it. What kind of strategy is that? Is this Trump's way of saying that he's grown tired of this role?

It would be one thing if the candidate were ill or had a death in the family or something like that, but to refuse to debate because you don't like a moderator?

I know Rand Paul didn't show up for the last debate because he was insulted by being placed in the lower tier, but when a candidate refuses to debate, it almost seems like they're no longer interested in the job. And to refuse to participate because you don't like a moderator? You're not there to debate a moderator even if you feel they're not being fair - in fact, if they are truly not being fair, it's a good opportunity to expose that with responses that will show why you're the best candidate for the office.

I almost don't want to watch it, which is sadly revealing that the debates are more entertainment than anything else (largely because of Trump this time around).

I just heard Cruz saying that the debates are analogous to a job interview (one a candidate gives to the public) and the first step of making your case at an interview is, at least, showing up.

[Captain Steel]

T-minus 3 hours.

Trump or no Trump?

[Yoda]

Didn't get to watch the Democratic Debate last night, but apparently they've actually been adding some and might want people to view them this time. Didn't make sense for them to do that when Hillary looked like she would coast, but now that Sanders has been gaining on her it's suddenly in her interest, so here we are.

Everything I heard about last night suggests it was far and away the most aggressive to date on the Democratic side (not that that's saying much). Sanders has clearly been going well out of his way not to lay into her until now, probably because he didn't much expect to win and just wanted to move the debate a little. Now, he's thinking maybe he can (he probably can't, but what matters is whether or not he thinks he can), so he's finally doing it, albeit a month or two too late.

He should cleanup in New Hampshire, but he might not win more than another state or two the rest of the way. I'd like to see him make it a real fight, though, for reasons both selfish (the short-term gain of the Republicans running against a party moving even further to the left) and altruistic (long-term, I'm not sure it serves the Democrats or the Republicans to stamp out intra-party disputes like this by minimizing debate, and I think Clinton is a brand of politician we all need to move past).

[seanc]

Did you catch Clinton's comment in the town hall meeting. She says receiving over $600,000 for a speaking engagement was no big deal because she wasn't running for office then. This is my favorite kind of thinking. I believe in free market policies and income inequality when I'm not running for an office as a democrat.

I think it speaks to exactly what your talking about with moving past this type of politician. Maybe it is a personality thing but she is so disingenuous I can't stand to listen to her talk.

[Yoda]

The craziest thing is that she, in the span of just a few minutes, simultaneously said we had to get money out of politics because it influences politicians...but insisted that the money she received didn't influence her. Amazing.

[seanc]

She can't get Anderson Cooper to make her look good. Baffling that she will probably be the next president.

[Yoda]

I'd bet against that happening, at this point, especially with Rubio looking increasingly likely to win on the other side.

Assuming the efficacy of progressive ideology for the sake of argument, reasonable people can probably disagree about whether or not she'd make a good President. But it should be obvious by now that she's not a very good candidate. The longer she campaigns, the worse things seem to get for her, and when she wins it's usually a mix of leveraging her structural advantages and running out the clock.

I can't imagine that's going to work too well in a general election against a naturally gifted politician. I don't see any likely Trumpless scenario where she's not losing the large majority of news cycles.

Maybe she can win anyway, but if she does, it'll be because of those structural issues and/or sheer base rallying maneuvers.

[Slappydavis]

Interesting to see a poor Rubio debate. He's consistently the best prepared.

Though, possibly he needs practice on his feet. Those nearly word for word repeated sections felt like watching a automaton breaking down.

[Captain Steel]

Interesting to see a poor Rubio debate. He's consistently the best prepared.

Though, possibly he needs practice on his feet. Those nearly word for word repeated sections felt like watching a automaton breaking down.

Which made Christie's criticisms (as heavy-handed as they seemed) quite accurate.

[Yoda]

It wasn't a great moment, but then, it was pretty much his only bad moment in any debate.

The thing about Christie's critique is that it's sort of true, but meaningless because it applies to everyone. Yes, candidates repeat themselves: most people don't watch every single one of these debates. You have to stay on message and make sure someone who only sees you once still gets what you're about. Think of how many times Christie has prefaced an answer with "as a former federal prosecutor..." or tried to characterize even demonstrably substantive debates among others as if they were pointless Senatorial bickering. He's about as one-note as any candidate in the race.

I'd be more worried about Rubio's chances if this were the exposure of an actual weakness, but if you throw his name into YouTube you can see that, if anything, he's usually better on his feet. The difference here is that it's not really in his interest to stray off message. Christie, on the other hand, is up against the wall: he needs a good showing in New Hampshire, or he's done. Rubio obviously should've deflected without repeating himself, but he doesn't need to win a fight with Chris Christie to defeat him in the campaign, so I get the decision, even if the execution was lacking.

[Slappydavis]

I'd be more worried about Rubio's chances if this were the exposure of an actual weakness, but if you throw his name into YouTube you can see that, if anything, he's usually better on his feet.

I think the weakness is possibly being caught off guard while under pressure. I do think he's fine on his feet in general. And even before this debate, Rubio came off as a bit programmed. But he really didn't know what to do when Christe was coming at him.

I still do agree that Rubio is still the most electable republican candidate (from the beginning, Rubio/Kasich just seemed like an intuitively strong ticket [Florida/Ohio, Legislative/Executive, Young/Old, Tea Party/Moderate], unless they feel like they need a woman on the ticket or a non-establishment figure), and that doesn't really change in one debate, unless it's proof of a "narrative". For example, if Hillary had similar deer-in-headlights moment of repeating a phrase verbatim, during an exchange that already mentioned memorized speeches, this thread and others across the internet would be FILLED with HillaryBot guffaws. Fortunately for Rubio, that narrative isn't established for him, but if it happens again, it could be one of his biggest liabilities.

I do also think that debates are overrated in general as litmus tests for strength as presidents or as a surrogate for negotiations with foreign leaders. But they're fun.

[Yoda]

Re: pressure. Well, he faced a similar situation with Bush a couple of months ago, and nailed it. The difference between then and now is that he and Bush were in direct conflict (re: donors, supporters, and various other things), so it was in his interest to engage directly. This time, there was no benefit to engaging with Christie, who's fighting for his political life and polling much lower than Rubio. The confrontation is all upside for Christie, and all downside for Rubio. Deflecting is the right move; he just did it the wrong way.

Anyway, as always, easy to forget that lots of this stuff looks silly to anyone who follows the campaign closely, but we're not the ones they're trying to reach. Message discipline is really important in a crowded field, so I'm pretty sure this stuff is a net positive.

As someone who both thinks Rubio will win and wants him to, there are certainly some arguments against him that I'm concerned will stick. But this honestly isn't one of them. But hey, this primary's made fools of us all at one point or another already.

[Slappydavis]

I can't imagine Bush is gonna stick around that much longer. He spent what, twice the money of the rest of the field in N.H. and is walking away in third at best.

Even if I find him to be one of the more palatable GOP contenders, I dunno what he's doing in the race.

Then again, maybe we've hit a sunk cost fallacy for Jeb's donors.

Unless Jeb essentially giving up on Iowa, spending all his cash in N.H. to get a top 5 is spun as "momentum".

[Yoda]

Agree on all counts. I kinda like him as a guy and think he could be a good President, but he's not a great candidate and the idea of a Bush/Clinton election is setting off red white and blue flags in the Aristocracy Alarm in my head (you know, the one all Americans have in their genetic code).

[TONGO]

I think when everythings decided its gonna be Donald Trump vs Bernie Sanders, and in the longrun Bernies gonna serve Trump his ass. Bernie Sanders is displaying the tenacity, backed up by the know how (competent, steady), to wake people up to the Trump hysteria, and he has the time to do it.

Plainly put, in this next year Trumps political stances, ettiquette, and past will be put under a microscope in the public light. Why havent the democrats done it already? They probably want to use it when it counts. Bernie Sanders would decimate Donald Trump in a debate, I mean....it would be ugly. Being a charming plainspoken pompous ass will only get you so far. I just dont think Trump can endure the political landscape longterm.

Sorry Hillary, I just dont think you really connect with the people. At least you dont suck as bad as Cruz though! :) Ted Cruz looks like Kilroy.

http://legalinsurrection.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/ted-cruz-open-house-campaign-headquarters-houston-president-2016-e1427928556369-620x437.png

http://rlv.zcache.com/kilroy_was_here_world_war_ii_cartoon_square_sticker-rcd6b3b631194405588d551b99ec5cd08_v9wf3_8byvr_512.jpg

[Gatsby]

Donald Trump's mouth on a puffer fish.

http://i.imgur.com/Rq0v0o0.jpg

[Cobpyth]

With Jeb dropping out and Carson staying in (even though the latter isn't all that relevant anymore), this is a very interesting night for Rubio strategically.

Still an impressive win from Trump, though.

[seanc]

I promised myself I wouldn't get scared till super Tuesday, but I lied, I'm terrified this is real.

[rauldc14]

I promised myself I wouldn't get scared till super Tuesday, but I lied, I'm terrified this is real.

Scariest. Race. Ever.

[Cobpyth]

What are you so scared of?

[seanc]

What are you so scared of?

Of Trump and his ideals. Honestly, it makes me sad more than scared. I kind of just don't want to pay attention anymore.

[rauldc14]

What are you so scared of?

Of all of these hilarious candidates

[Sexy Celebrity]

http://www.movieforums.com/community/attachment.php?attachmentid=24315&stc=1&d=1456273842

Bernie Sanders will be the Democratic nominee.

Why? His campaign poster's a lot better than Hillary's.

[Gatsby]

Heh, the arrows on Hilary posters are all pointing toward Bernie posters.

[Sexy Celebrity]

Heh, the arrows on Hilary posters are all pointing toward Bernie posters.

Ahhhhh. A very good catch! Yes. She is dooming herself with that arrow. I was thinking that, but I like your reason.

[Sexy Celebrity]

http://www.movieforums.com/community/attachment.php?attachmentid=24317&stc=1&d=1456274493

Hillary's also reminds me of a hospital sign.

The message is Hillary as President = America becomes a hospital. Becomes a place for the sick and dying.

[Captain Steel]

I think when everythings decided its gonna be Donald Trump vs Bernie Sanders, and in the longrun Bernies gonna serve Trump his ass. Bernie Sanders is displaying the tenacity, backed up by the know how (competent, steady), to wake people up to the Trump hysteria, and he has the time to do it.

Plainly put, in this next year Trumps political stances, ettiquette, and past will be put under a microscope in the public light. Why havent the democrats done it already? They probably want to use it when it counts. Bernie Sanders would decimate Donald Trump in a debate, I mean....it would be ugly. Being a charming plainspoken pompous ass will only get you so far. I just dont think Trump can endure the political landscape longterm.

Sorry Hillary, I just dont think you really connect with the people. At least you dont suck as bad as Cruz though! :) Ted Cruz looks like Kilroy.

http://legalinsurrection.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/ted-cruz-open-house-campaign-headquarters-houston-president-2016-e1427928556369-620x437.png

http://rlv.zcache.com/kilroy_was_here_world_war_ii_cartoon_square_sticker-rcd6b3b631194405588d551b99ec5cd08_v9wf3_8byvr_512.jpg

One morning, I heard these two radio DJ's saying that Ted Cruz looks like Granpa Munster (Al Lewis)!

I'm sad about all the dishonesty stuff that's said to be coming from the Cruz campaign, as I liked Ted as a front runner. Then again, it's all coming from Trump & Rubio (and they are hardly founts of truth). With their ganging up on Cruz, could we be looking at a Trump / Rubio ticket (kind of like Batman and Robin - you have to admit that Rubio looks like Robin!)

[Captain Steel]

http://40.media.tumblr.com/a605820f97cfcd44e34fe3f86d0ece82/tumblr_o11jlth1Mu1qbn1vmo1_1280.jpg

[Yoda]

Oh man, this was ice cold.

https://twitter.com/TeamMarco/status/703042570931277825

[Goofy Dude]

Big suck debate. Trump and Rubio particularly bad. They both lie through their teeth about what they have said in the past. Rubio not good trying to go after Trump. He sounded like a whiny high school debater, constantly interrupting and repeating the same thing. Still Robo-Rubio, just more aggressive at it. Trump says impractical, unbelievable things and his fans eat it up. Cruz the best of the bunch this time, but will it matter?.Carson was better than he has been on the rare occasions he got to speak, and Kasich was a bore.


But unless something out of the ordinary happens, it's over. Trump will win the nomination. He is way ahead in most state polls and the establishment lane for Rubio has gotten very narrow.

[Camo]

At either the start of this thread or on another thread i quite boldy said Trump would have no chance, he would fizzle out quickly. Makes me sad that i was wrong, if he doesn't win at this point then something has been held over his head to make him drop out because it is his at this point, he is in the open Republican side and is the only one causing any notice.

If it is Trump, Clinton or Bernie, i'm on team feel the Bern. If it is Trump and Clinton then go Trump!

Pretty awful anyway though. Wish this all blew up four years ago for Ron Paul personally.

[Captain Steel]

The three guys in the middle reminded me of professional wrestling. They wasted so much time hurling accusations and calling each other liars that we never really got to hear what they intend to do about solving problems.

It almost seems like the three in the middle don't realize that with each insult they create another opening for their rival to take the floor - and tonight that perpetual tit for tat snowballed (thus Carson's request that someone attack him)!

I felt bad for Carson in this and other debates. It seems the moderators deliberately ignore him. There should at least be an attempt to give all candidates equal time, but in several debates it just seemed obvious that Carson gets far fewer questions or time to speak.

I thought Kasich scored a couple points tonight. One, by not engaging in the circus atmosphere (along with Dr. Carson), and I liked his criticism of Obama on the FBI vs. Apple issue.

[Camo]

I don't think anyone expected Carson to turn out the way he is. With guys like Rubio, Cruz and Jeb i get that they are (or were in Jebs case) largely appeasing their investors to get the Republican Nomination then their tune will change to get the Independents but Carson is baffling, if the guy wasn't as insane as he is he could be the only person to challenge Trump.