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What SHOULD win? In my opinion, Rings should. However, predicting the winner is a bit tougher. Among my movie buff friends, all of the 3 most knowledgable of them liked In the Bedroom the most. I think the same consensus might exist among the most knowledgable professional movie critics. But the Academy adds a public popularity ideology to their Oscar winner decision making mix, which ideology definately favors FOTR, beyond any doubt.
With all of that having been said, I would have to agree with most people that ABM and Rings seem to be the frontrunners. For now, I'll go with A Beautiful Mind for best picture, as I believe it possesses a very good combination of the things the Academy looks for. However, I wouldn't be surprised in the least if I change my mind before the end of the month and predict the Oscar for my favorite movie of the year, The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring.
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One of the biggest myths told is that being intelligent is the absence of the ability to do stupid things.