2014 Box Office Challenge 1

I thought about taking it on for that very reason and, if it'd been budget/takings ratio rather than a straight profit basis, I'd have gone with it. However, I fully expect Rio to do it worldwide, while Heaven For Real will be strongest, by far, in the US.

I'm fine with that. Unless we can, at some time, find a budget, then I think it's the fairest way to do it.

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When it gets a little closer to time for the next challenge I want to talk to you about what exactly you mean by this. I am definitely open to anything that would make this more interesting or challenging.

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I wish I had had the foresight to use Draft Day as my bomb pick.

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What did you give out teeter?

Without wanting to put words in his mouth I think I know what he means. Instead of just rewarding the film's that gross the most money, base it on a budget/gross formula to work out the most succesful films.

So you could have two films that made $100 million at the box office. One was made for $70 million, the other for $25 million. The latter would win because it posted a bigger profit.

As an actual example take The Blair Witch Project and The Lone Ranger. Blair Witch made a total of $248 million worldwide; Lone Ranger $260 million, However take into account their respective budgets ($60,000 and $215 million) and Blair Witch was by far the bigger success. It would also have been more impressive had someone predicted and picked it in a game such as this.

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We are using world gross against production budget doubled. Am I confused about what your saying? Or are you guys confused about the rules?

Oh are we? I think I forgot that bit in the rules. Don't know about HK. But does it take into account the ratio of profit?

For example you have two films. Film #1 was made for a budget of $100 million (200 when doubled) and made a total of $400 million at the box-office. So it made a $200 million profit and doubled its budget. Film #2 was made for a budget of just $10 million (20 when doubled) and made $100 million worldwide. So that's only a $80 million profit but it has quintupled its budget. Now Film #1 made more of a profit ($200 million to $80 million) but Film #2 had a better budget-to-profit ratio, 5:1 against Film #1's 2:1. So in this game which would be the better pick?

Although again perhaps I shouldn't be trying to speak on HK's behalf.

Ok now I see. No it does not take that into account. That would be something to think about though. Thanks for clearing that up. I am pretty sure that is exactly what he was referring to.

No problem sean. Although it would perhaps be tougher to figure that into that game and take it into account

JD's right, that's what I meant. I just felt that you could make smaller budget films a bigger part of the game. Stuff like Bears, Draft Day and Oculus aren't really worth going for because, even if they do $200m, their profits won't cover a $250m film doing much over $650m-$700m, which is, probably, the bare minimum the studios expect for most of the big summer releases, even though it will have done a lot better in terms of % of budget.

I've almost convinced myself that I should've gone with Spidey 2 rather than Godzilla. That's what I was going to do, but changed my mind at the last moment before I posted. I think it's going to be a pretty big mistake. I'm not convinced by Transformers, but I'm hoping the worldwide market, especially Asia, picks that up and runs with it long enough to make it work.

Week #5:



$92,000,000

No surprise that Spidey took this weekend's prize. It already sits at $369,000,000 worldwide. Unfortunately I don't have a solid production budget yet. Wiki says it will be between $200-$250 million. I could have guessed that close. No other significant movement this week so I am going to let the leader board sit for another week till we get a solid budget. All the individual numbers and the weekend box office have been updated in the first two posts.

Week6:



$51,070,000

Interesting week. Neighbors beats out Spider-Man in only Spidey's second week. It is already in the black so no trouble there but it has a huge budget so still will be a bit of a disappointment in my opinion. I am using the budget $225mil (450mil). I split the difference of all the budgets floating around. I think the Spidey folks should be happy with that because it is probably closer to the $255mil that has been floating around. If Box Office MoJo settles on a budget we will change it.

Chef does not have a budget yet so I did not add that in. It will only effect one person. The other thing of interest is Walk Of Shame. I missed that it was even released last week. It has not even done $100,000 yet on a budget of $15mil ($30mil). This could have a big effect on our final standings as one person has it as their bomb.

The first two posts are updated with current numbers and standings.

Yeah I gave Walk of Shame to JJ. Then again I had no idea it had a budget that high!

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That surprises me. I've never paid attention to movie budgets in my life and I would have thought out of all the movies Walk of Shame would have had the lowest budget out of all the movies except maybe The Fault in our Stars.

Week 7:


$93,205,000

Godzilla had a huge weekend, which is good news for us that are depending on it to battle the Marvel machine. It's budget of $160mil ($320mil) is also a little easier to work with then the bigger super hero movies. The only thing that surprised me a bit is the worldwide numbers $196mil. Perhaps it has not released in some spots yet though.

Nothing else of interest for the week. Million Dollar Arm released, but we will all be glad we stayed away. It did $10.5mil and has a budget if $25mil ($50mil). I still haven't been able to chase down a budget for Chef, but we will figure it out as we get closer to the end.

All the numbers in the first two posts are updated and include the Top 5 weekend box office. I let the standings sit for a week. Godzilla numbers would not move anyone around significantly this week.

That's a good start for Godzilla. I can only hope that word of mouth pushes it through. I think it opens in most of the big markets this weekend, with the exception of Japan where it opens in a couple of months, so we should have a better idea of the foreign market some time this week.

Week 8:

$90,700,000

Nice Memorial Day weekend for the X-Men. This movie cost a fortune to make, $200mil ($400mil), so it will be interesting to see how it plays out. Some should be hopeful it doesn't have the huge drop off that Godzilla did, 66%. I was expecting more from Godzilla world wide, but I guess it still has some big markets to open in so it could still do big numbers.

There is a new leader on the board, Rauldc. Still a long way to go though. There still may be a little hope for us non Cap folks, but hope is beginning to fade. Everything is updated in the first two posts.

You sonofabitch.

LOL! Looks like I picked the bomb of the summer!

Way to go, Rauld!

Considering my knowledge of this subject, I'm ok with my being in 7th place right now.