I was slow to get on board the
Adam Driver train, but I enthusiastically got ALL the way on in 2016 with his work in Jeff Nichols'
Midnight Special, Marty Scorsese's
Silence, and Jim Jarmusch's
Paterson. Now I get excited when I hear he has joined a cast, any cast, including for Spike Lee here in
BlacKkKlansman. As the Jewish cop in early 1970's Colorado infiltrating the KKK with and for his African American co-worker he broke through for his first Oscar nomination. He won't win but he will almost surely be back.
Unlike Driver,
Sam Rockwell has been a favorite of mine for years, since
Box of Moonlight and
Lawn Dogs - right out of the gate. As a fan it was so gratifying watching him not only get his long overdue first Oscar nomination last year for
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri but to win in this very category. Here he is back again already, this time portraying George W. Bush in Adam McKay's
Vice, one of three acting nominations the film received. He does an excellent job catching some of the W. mannerisms and he is always magnetic on screen, but he isn't in the movie a whole lot. I hope Rockwell rings up multiple nominations regularly now, but he won't win this year.
Richard E. Grant is another favorite, so excellent in Bruce Robinson's
Withnail & I and
How to Get Ahead in Advertising to begin his long career. He doesn't get the starring role every often but he is always a welcome addition, so it is very appropriate that his first nomination comes here in support. He does a wonderful job playing the humor, intelligent bravado, gleeful depravity, and pathos of the boozing hustler who teams up with Lee Israel's literary schemes in
Can You Ever Forgive Me?. Jack Hock is a perfect character to add to his rogues gallery of charming misfits. I am hoping against hope that he can somehow pull off the upset and actually win, but even in defeat there will be few people there in the auditorium enjoying the experience more than Richard E. Grant.
Sam Elliott had a small role in
Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid to start his career (he is one of the poker players in the film's opening pre-credits scene) and it took him a while to establish himself in the business. Lots of guest spots on series television throughout the '70s and then he started to get film work, co-starring with Parker Stevenson and his own luxurious chest hair in the lightweight
Lifeguard (1976), the forgettable horror flick
The Legacy (1978) where he met his wife the stunning Katharine Ross, and the TV mini-series Western
"The Sacketts" with Tom Selleck. He worked steadily, lots of Westerns for the small screen, and that trademark mustache and deep voice made him always memorable. He never became an above-the-title star, but he wound up in some cult favorites including the Patrick Swayze barfighting mullet-fest
Roadhouse and The Coen Brothers'
The Big Lebowski, both of which are almost constantly playing on cable television at any given moment.
I thought Sam did Oscar nomination-worthy work in Bogdanovich's
Mask (1985), with Lily Tomlin in Paul Weitz's
Grandma (2015), and most especially just last year when he was snubbed for a Best Actor nod in Brett Haley's
The Hero. Playing Bradley Cooper's much older brother in
A Star is Born is finally the one that did it. He has a relatively small number of scenes, but he makes each one count. If enough of the Oscar voters go for a dash of overdue career achievement as well as the strength of his performance, Elliott may hear his name called.
But the favorite is definitely
Green Book's
Mahershala Ali. Ali won in this category on his only other nomination, two years ago as the understanding mentor of a drug dealer in
Moonlight. Mahershala had already been working a lot before that Academy Award, but almost overnight he went from being "that guy" you had seen in a dozen different things to trying to learn how to pronounce his name and hoping he is in absolutely everything. This year not only is he kicking all kinds of butt on the third season of HBO's
"True Detective" which will surely lead to Emmy and Golden Globe nominations and wins next awards cycle, but his portrayal of erudite pianist Dr. Don Shirley who patiently tries to rise above the prejudice of his day with his steadfast dignity has had him picking up all kinds of prizes. That should continue come Oscar night.
He also has a bit of an advantage in that his role is really a co-starring one in
Green Book, and more properly he should be vying for Best Actor with Viggo Mortensen. Unfortunately there is nothing in the bylaws to prevent a little strategic category shopping. As Best Actor, he probably doesn't win and may not even have been nominated. But as Best Supporting Actor he is the favorite.
Having just won two years ago shouldn't hurt his chances, either. There have been other instances of an actor sort of running this category for a while: Christoph Waltz won just three years apart for Tarantino's
Inglorious Basterds and
Django Unchained, Jason Robards won in back-to-back years for his Ben Bradlee in
All the President's Men and Dashiell Hammett in
Julia, and going back to the inception of the Academy Awards Walter Brennan won three out of the first five years this category existed (
Come and Get It, Kentucky, and
The Westerner). Mahershala Ali is about to join their company.
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