The Election News and Predictions Thread

We've got threads for both candidates, but I thought it might be nice to have one that's mostly non-partisan. Just a place to post relevant updates, polls, and predictions.

I'll be doing election coverage for a local station tomorrow evening, so I won't be around while the actual results are coming in, but I'll be in and out before then.

Anyway, place your bets and all that. Feel free to predict popular vote share, electoral votes, or both. You can use www.270towin.com to create and share state-by-state map predictions.

Nice, lots of coverage on the news channels over here for it too, everyone seems interested.

I'll probably stay up and watch the news tomorrow night. What are the key times in terms of key state results, exit poll reveals and so on, that we should look out for? I think Sky News has coverage from 10pm here, which I think is 5pm ET.

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Good question. I guess the answer is whenever theyre done counting them. Florida recounted almost a half dozen times over a period of almost a week back in the 2000 election debacle.

I havent dreaded an event like this since the first time we invaded Iraq. Ive a very bad feeling Trumps gonna win because all those opposed to him are too splintered with 3rd party candidates.

Well, first: ignore exit polls. They're crap. They get attention because people are starved for information. They have some value when aggregated nationwide to determine voter opinions of traits or issues, but for state-by-state predictions they're useless.

Key Times: the first hint may come from my own state, PA, which was called a little before 10:00 PM ET in 2012. Trump isn't likely to win it, and doesn't necessarily need to, but that might be the first indication we get as to whether or not either of them is under or overperforming their polls. It might tell us if Trump really does have strength among "rust belt" states, and/or if Clinton's seemingly superior campaign organization is going to make a difference. Obama won it by 5 points, and Clinton ought to be in the same general range. NOTE: PA is very lopsided, in that Democrats rack up huge vote margins in Philadelphia and lose several other areas (the "T", they call it), so even actual returns from PA won't be worth much unless you know which parts of the state have reported.

Key States: look at Florida and North Carolina. Both look razor-thin, and Trump likely needs both, because it's hard to imagine a scenario where he loses both but somehow runs really well in a place like PA, MI, or WI (which he would need to offset these losses). And if Hillary takes these, particularly with a few points to spare, then we're probably looking at a blowout.

If Trump doesn't flip one of those rust belt states (PA, WI, MI) then he basically needs to sweep the swing states and flip Nevada and New Hampshire.

Prediction: My boy Trump gonna bring it home baby yeah!!

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it seems so , yeah....

what a mess it will be if so

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You guys understand the distinction between predictions and desires, yeah?

I guess the Joker is whiter than most people.

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It's what you learn after you know it all that counts. - John Wooden
My IMDb page

First, as much as I hate the idea, Hillary is going to be the next President - for most of us it won't seem much different from the last 8 years of Obama, the one difference is instead of occasionally hearing the resonant tones of Obama's speaking voice, we will be subject to the shrill, nails-on-blackboard shrieking of an unstable, lying harpy.

There will be a gradually increasing number of Islamic Terror attacks on the homeland, either by domestic and / or "lone wolf" terrorists and by overseas directed & inspired jihadists. Ultimately, there will be another attack carried out by ISIS operatives brought in among Syrian refugees - then all the "I told you so's" from the right and PC double talk about "Islamophobia" from the left will begin.


Now as far as predictions go, I made this one on the "Hillary" thread a couple days ago:

Here's my prediction: a few days before the election, Comey or someone from the FBI will come out and say that they found nothing of any import in the latest e-mail investigation. Then the Clinton surrogates will start overwhelming the airways with "I told you so's." They'll say that Hillary was telling the truth the whole time and that now - after more false accusations against her - she's even more honest than anyone ever suspected. She's the fountain of $&#*! integrity! Then they'll play the victim card - poor Hillary, she's been falsely attacked, Trump was probably behind it, even though she's a victim she's still hanging tough and she'll stand just as strong if you vote for her.
This is all set up to try to sway the undecideds and independents at the last minute.

It's all rigged. Well played Mrs. Clinton, well played.


And that's exactly what's happened.

My prediction: we are screwed.

My 2nd prediction: Hillary up for impeachment

Better luck in 2020.

Who would you Yanks rather have as President?

A. George W Bush
B. Barack Obama
C. The winner of this election

Bush or Obama for sure

Bush

Bush

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Letterboxd

Trump or Bush.

Hump or Death?

President Obama

i'll be playing D&D with friends tomorrow night, and we'll probably be playing and also watching the poll results. should be a hoot. i'll stop in and see what mofo is up to if i have a minute

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letterboxd

No much love for my homegirl Hilary