First you can generally eliminate the Best Picture nominees that don't have a corresponding Best Director nomination. Winning without the director even being nominated is exceedingly rare. That means
Ford v Ferrari, Jojo Rabbit, Little Women, and
Marriage Story have very remote chances of winning. But remote is not impossible and it HAS happened. Five times. In ninety-one years. A 6% chance, historically. Two of those happened during the first few years of the awards (
Wings and
Grand Hotel), before the categories had standardized. So really were talking about only three times in the modern history of the Oscars. BUT...two of them were in this decade. 1989's
Driving Miss Daisy is the first, 2012's
Argo the second, and last year's
Green Book was the third. So clearly it can happen.
But those three films also won other prestigious awards leading up to the Academy Awards.
Driving Miss Daisy had won the PGA Award and the Golden Globe for Comedy,
Argo had won the PGA and the Golden Globe for Drama while Affleck was Best Director at the Globes and the DGA,
Green Book had won the PGA, the Globe for Comedy, and at least Farrelly was nominated by the DGA. So their Best Picture wins weren't complete shocks, just frickin' weird and rare that their director's didn't manage Oscar nominations.
For the record
Marriage Story, Ford v Ferrari, Little Women nor
Jojo Rabbit won the PGA nor Golden Globe awards. Meaning they would forge totally new ground if they were to win. Possible, obviously, as they are on the ballot. But beyond unlikely. It would be my favorite Oscar win of all time if
Jojo Rabbit were to be named Best Picture, but as much as I want it to happen it ain't gonna.
Fans of
Joker really, really want it to win, too. The same way (and probably some of the same fans) who really, really wanted
Mad Max: Fury Road to win. And they want it so much they have convinced themselves it is going to happen. It isn't. I mean if you want to cling to some glimmer of hope until Oscar night go ahead, but it isn't going to happen. That it won Venice and got some rave reviews and the most Oscar nominations is all fine and good, but Best Picture is a different kettle of fish. Speaking of fish
The Shape of Water did win a couple years ago, but remember its darkness and slimy weirdness were undercut by an old fashioned fairy tale love story.
Joker...is not.
The Irishman is the ninth Best Picture nominee helmed by Martin Scorsese:
Taxi Driver, Raging Bull, GoodFellas, Gangs of New York, The Aviator, The Departed, Hugo, The Wolf of Wall Street, and
The Irishman.
The Departed is the only one to win and that won't change this year. The slow paced gangster epic is a welcome return for the master of the genre, but in addition to its buzz cresting too soon (all the way back in November...ages ago, in awards season terms) it was financed by Netflix, meaning this one won't win. At some point Netflix or Amazon or another streaming service is going to produce something they just can't ignore, but until then the business is going to favor productions that come from more traditional studios.
If
The Irishman were to get Best Picture, even at 210 minutes it would not be the longest winner. It would be fourth behind
Gone with the Wind (238 minutes),
Lawrence of Arabia (228 minutes), and
Ben-Hur (212 minutes) and just ahead of
The Godfather Part II (202 minutes) and
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (200 minutes).
I hope Marty lives to be a hundred (he is seventy-seven) and makes at least ten more movies.
Parasite is the twelfth foreign language film nominated for Best Picture. Renoir's
Grand Illusion was the first, Haneke's
Amour, and Cuarón's
Roma were the most recent. None has ever won. Is this the year it's going to happen? You figure it's gotta happen SOMEDAY, right? But will it be this dark, subversive, funny, weird flick with that ending? I doubt it.
That the last two Oscars had foreign language titles that are legitimately in the conversation as possible winners is a step in the right direction. The Academy Awards are never going to look like The Cannes Film Festival, nor should they. But having more of a truly international flavor is a good thing.
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood may be Tarantino's most accessible movie in some ways, especially to more conservative Oscar voters. Not that it doesn't have a few moments of ultra violence, but compared to the all out carnage of
Kill Bill, Django Unchained, Inglourious Basterds, or even
Pulp Fiction it is relatively calm. It is told linearly. It stars two of the most attractive movie stars of their era. It is lovingly set in a Hollywood of yesteryear. It respectfully portrays several real life industry figures including Sharon Tate. But even given all of that, at the end of the day is it still simply too Tarantino-y to sway enough of the voters?
1917 is old fashioned and familiar in some respects. It hits just about every major combat movie trope there is. From
All Quiet on the Western Front and
Paths of Glory to
Platoon and
Saving Private Ryan and a dozen others, most of the incident in this World War I tale of two soldiers trying to deliver a message up to the front lines has been seen before. But it hasn't been done quite this way before, simulating real time and one continuous shot. Sam Mendes and company have designed and made this all exceedingly well. Not a unique narrative but it
is a unique cinematic experience.
1917 has already won the PGA Award and it won the Golden Globe for Best Drama. The last time a movie won both of those awards but lost Best Picture was
Brokeback Mountain, which lost the Oscar to
Crash. So it isn't unprescedented. But
Brokeback was a boundary pushing film, it would have been the first Best Picture overtly about a homosexual relationship (which wouldn't happen until
Moonlight three years ago). So they went for the safe choice instead. But
1917 is already the safe choice. What kind of buyer's remorse would shift over to
Parasite or even
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood this late in the game?
This is in the bag for
1917. No gasp-inducing waves of oh my goodness when the envelope is opened (assuming they hand them the correct envelope).