MoFo Fantasy Football 2012 - The Playoffs

Figure one big thread should do for all the playoffs. LT and Pete get Byes, so the matchups in round one are:


RG3scompany (8-5) vs. Dillon Panthers (8-5)
In general, Adam's team has a fair bit more firepower, but TONGO is Denver-heavy, which means when they have a good matchup he has the chance to put up some crooked numbers. And that's the case this week, with the Broncos playing Oakland. The Raiders give up the 2nd-most points to opposing QBs, and that Peyton Manning fellow is, as both Tongs and I believed, having a helluva year. Obviously, it makes a lot of difference whether or not Eric Decker and Knowshon Moreno share in those spoils, but there's a good chance one of them will.

Adam's matchups are rough; middling for Marshall, and fairly bad (top 10 lowest points against at their respective positions) for RGIII, Mathews, Gore, and White. Most weeks he'd be a pretty clear favorite, I think, but a few things are working against him this time. And I think it'll be just enough:

PREDICTION: TONGO advances to the Semifinals.


Big Damn Heroes (8-5) vs. Wyld Stallyns (6-7)
Jay's the defending champ and the new league record holder for Points Scored in a season, and as I noted in another thread, he hasn't scored fewer than 123 points since Week 1. It's easy to see why: Heath Miller, Doug Martin, and A.J Green all had huge bust-out years where they've more than returned on their average draft position, Arian Foster's been Arian Foster, and while Cam Newton struggled somewhat, he's improved a lot lately, and Jay had an able backup in Big Ben anyway.

He's a little weak on the bench, though, and even without any injuries he's running Lance Moore out there, so he's not invulnerable. But I think, #3 seed aside, he has to be considered the favorite. Maybe not against The Field, but against any other single team.

On the other side of the ring is Sleezy, MoFo's first sub-.500 playoff team, the result of keeping the 6-team playoff structure while falling one owner short and having to roll with 12 teams. He's got some big names, though: Rodgers and Welker, most notably, and while the latter's got a tough matchup with Houston, the former should enjoy a shootout with Detroit.

Sleezy has the toughest choices of any of the four playoff teams going this week; he's got to pick between Michael Turner/Reggie Bush and Dwayne Bowe/Golden Tate. Earlier in the year both of these would be no-brainers, but KC's been a mess and Bush is suddenly both struggling and sharing time. And Amendola, though "back" in general, is out again this week.

Sleezy has the talent, but too many of those mid-round guys like Bush and Bowe are struggling. Hard to go up against the highest scoring team in the league with Hilton and Tate.

PREDICTION: Jay advances.

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By the bye (get it?), we're using reseeding again this year, so don't let the bracket structure on the league site fool you. The only Semifinal matchup than can't occur is Jay; any other matchup is possible. If the predictions above hold, for example, it'd be LT/TONGO and Jay/Pete.

Nobody from the Jay/Sleezy matchup's going tonight, nor is anyone on Adam's team. But TONGO's got all three of his Denver guys. So we'll probably know a lot more about his chances after tonight.

Im wrestling starting Jacob Tamme over Greg Olsen, and benching Decker for Steve Smith. Ugh. Smiths up against Atlanta and theyre humming on all cylinders this year. Olsens chances are better vs Atlanta if those statistic thingys have any merit.

In the end I decided to stick with the guys that got me here, but this is Deckers last chance. Im scared.

Screw those guys. They all stink.

__________________
We are both the source of the problem and the solution, yet we do not see ourselves in this light...

I think you made the right choices. The lineup you ended up with is probably the same one I would've ultimately chosen.

Manning off to a good start; 4 for 6 on the opening drive, including a TD.

Oh if he only had maintained that opening drives pace! After the game Im near 60 points. Acceptable for 3 slots, but not great either. Surprisingly Moreno was the big point earner and not Peyton. Decker had a 8 catch game so he keeps his spot.

Its only thursday. Theres still too much time left to tinker.....

Yeah, the total's all that matters; Moreno picked up the slack. 59 points out of three slots is plenty solid, and higher than the total projected for those guys. That's one way to get a sense of it; if you guys are projected for about the same total (and you are), then you can look at your score relative to the projections to get a sense of how things are shaping up. Only works insofar as they end up being at least close to right, but it can be helpful when a disjointed group of players have/haven't played.

Anyway, still lots of football left but last night was definitely a positive for your chances of winning.

Right now, it's more of a no-brainer to sit Bowe and Bush based on their matchups alone. Bowe is on the road against Cleveland (and Joe Haden) with Brady Quinn at QB. Bush is also on the road against the league's best run defense and his touches have dropped considerably.

Golden Tate is at home, where Russell Wilson and company are typically very good, and Tate himself seems to have a penchant for catching TDs. T.Y. Hilton is also at home and will face a struggling secondary as Indy's clear #2 with Andrew Luck throwing him the rock. I've lost some games lately because I didn't start these guys. I'm hoping they'll deliver now that I've seen the light.

The only choice I'm struggling with is whether or not to start Martellus Bennett in place of Tate or Hilton. He's been relatively mediocre on the season, but he had a monster game last week and the Giants are hitting their typical late season stride. He'll be at home facing New Orleans, who's near dead last against the TE.

I'm considering benching Tate for Bennett (in the flex), but I can't help but think Tate is more likely to put up 20 points than Bennett.

All my players have went, and my team total this week is 137.10. I was 13 points over my projection. Adam is at 116.24, has a half of football still to play with Gore & the 49rs, then Jason Hansen tonight, and Owen Daniels tomorrow night.

cry.

It was looking pretty close before Gore's touchdown. Now you're gonna have to hope that Daniels or Hansen whiffs. Which isn't out of the question.

Either way, you've put up a very strong total. If Adam pulls it out, it'll be because he just got huge days from both WRs, and the iffier guys like Garcon and Gore both came through at the same time.

*Shakes fist at Seattle D*

There goes my slot in my other league! Har!!!

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Looks like if I'd snuck into the playoffs I would've knocked off Jay and moved onto the Semis. D'oh.

And yes, I'm totally gonna follow this alternate reality timeline to figure out what would've happened if not for that freaky night in mid-November...

Ha! Yes the old alternate timeline. For me its like how much help did Reggie Wayne and Chris Johnson reaaaaally bring me? Oh yeah I noticed Marshawn Lynchs' big day yesterday, and saw Steve Smith (on my bench) outproduce Wayne the past few weeks. Even now I wouldnt hesitate to say I got a great deal for Marshawn Lynch, but sometimes great deals can still end up screwing you.

Skin of my teeth this week, for sure. I would have been beaten by any of 4 other players this week, not including those on byes. Just proves how important seeding is.

Grats guys!

And then there were four.

Here we go...Semifinals:


RG3scompany (9-5) vs. Sookie's Suckers (10-3)
It was a close one for Adam last week; as TONGO put up a strong 137 points. But he got huh-ooge days out of Marshall and White, and Gore/Garcon combined for 35, which gave him a 4-point victory.

Adam has very average matchups this week; almost all of them middling, statistically. The most important, though, is SF-NE, given that a) Adam has the SF defense, b) LT's starting four Patriots, c) Adam has Frank Gore.

Not a lot else to say. How that game goes almost certainly determines the winner. LT's got Brady, Peterson (who's been a beast lately and is defying all sorts of conventional wisdom about ACL injury recovery time), and a lot of coin flip guys, especially with Nelson either out or hobbled.

PREDICTION: Adam makes his first MoFo Bowl.


Big Damn Heroes (9-5) vs. Beantown Champs (9-4)
I said something during the regular season about the highest projected points in league history. I dunno if this is the mark, but...Yahoo thinks Jay's going to score 157 points. If that's not the high water mark, it's close.

It's not hard to see why; lots of explosive guys, only a couple of iffy ones, and Cam Newton's making a late season run, which is pretty fantastic timing for anyone who was able to survive his early season struggles (which Jay was able to do, partially thanks to Roethlisberger). And the dude has zero bad matchups this week; half are good, half are average.

Pete's team is pretty much the opposite; lots of questionable guys, but each one having a fair amount of potential. Just tough to be relying on so many of them. McFadden seems to be healthy again and has a good matchup, but he's been hard to trust even when healthy.

PREDICTION: Jay returns to the MoFo Bowl to try to defend his title.

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So there it is. First game's tonight: only significant player involved is Jays A.J. Green, who I have in my other league, so I'll be watching closely.

I went to bed thinking LT had no chance, because the SF defense was just handling her skill players, and the Pats were down 31-3.

Then they came back and tied it with 4 TD in the 4th quarter (!!!). Alas, they ended up losing, but it was enough to put LT into the finals!

I have been afraid to say anything all season long...so I will speak to ya'll after the season is over.
Let's strap our helmets on for one last game GoObAh's!

It seems almost impossible to think that after all the horrible seasons Pete has endured here, he may now be able to take home a trophy. I don't like him.

Aye, but hey, he's waited a long time for it. Wish he'd passed his curse off to someone else (it's now official: if not for that crazy Wallace game, I'd be in the MoFo Bowl again), but it's hard to argue that any owner has paid his dues, karmically, more than Pete.