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Well, the refs are back, so the toothless boycott everyone was saying they'd engage in need not go forward. Yay. Our long national nightmare is over.
11 Angry Men (2-1) vs. RG3scompany (2-1)
As confident as I was about winning last week, that's how ambivalent I am about this one. Sounds like Spiller's going to be fine (thank goodness), but he'll probably miss this one game to be on the safe side. No biggie, except that the Steelers are on a bye, which means no Mike Wallace. Which means Pierre Thomas gets to play. Not that that's so scary; he's put up 18 and 10 points the last two weeks. But Adam's not missing anyone important, and Mathews is back as of last week. Romo's got a tough matchup, too, though half the time it seems like he plays up or down to his level of competition.
But I think out of guys like Marshall, RGII, Gore and Daniels, Adam's got to have a couple of no-shows at some point. If it's one of those guys, he probably wins. If it's two or more, I probably do.
Oh, also, I'll bet at Adam's for a good chunk of the day, so we can trash talk each other in person. Yay.
PREDICTION: I'll pick me, but just barely.
Liquor And Whores (3-0) vs. Sookie's Suckers (2-1)
PW's the only undefeated team left, and it's hard to imagine that ending. Sookie's struggling to replace Hernandez at TE, and she went all-in on Pats, which hasn't been great so far. Brady's been good-but-not-great, Nelson's been so-so, and Ridley's a riddle that probably can't be answered every week.
That PW's 3-0 with Chris Johnson in his lineup is mildly amazing. He's gotten good production out of his WRs, though, and has the lowest Points Against by almost 30. I think both continue this week. I don't think he puts up a great total, but I don't think LT puts up much of a fight, which means:
PREDICTION: PW.
Team Zissou (2-1) vs. Dillon Panthers (1-2)
Asking how Fiscal's gonna do is pretty much the same as asking how the Falcons will. And they look pretty good so far, and should look good against Carolina this week, too. Jones vanished in week 2 but looked good again in week 3, so there's some uncertainty there in an Atlanta offense with plenty of weapons (I always know, because I've got the other two!). The bigger problem, though, is that Forte looks like he might play, but perhaps not overwhelmingly, and Bush is kind of banged up. So what to do? Roll with them both, or pick one and take your chances? Tough call. To make matters worse, Bradshaw's back and starting, so while Andre Brown should play a fair bit, it's a bit of a gamble on just how much.
TONGO, meanwhile, is still relying on the Denver offense, and that might be a good bet against Oakland this week. Roethlisberger picked them apart easily, and you have to assume Peyton's going to be able to, too. Decker saw an increase in work, too. I think that'll be enough.
PREDICTION: TONGO.
The Replicants (0-3) vs. Wyld Stallyns (1-2)
Mike's start over the previous four years: 3-0, 3-0, 0-3, 2-1. He made the playoffs in all those years except for the 0-3 one (and even then he was still 6-7!), but he's 0-3 this year, and is less than a point ahead of Dusty for the second-lowest total. But he's also had the second highest points against, which makes sense because his roster looks decent. But he's gotten merely solid (rather than fantastic) production out of most of his big names: McCoy, Gronk, and Bryant. None have been flops, but neither have they justified their draft day value. So there's your problem, right there. *spits chewing tobacco and points to brake rotors*
On the other side, Sleezy has crazy firepower on paper (and I hasten to add that Firepower on Paper would be a great name for a band), but Rodgers has shockingly pumpkined over the first few weeks, and whether or not he bounces back (and if so, how much) is pretty much the #1 fantasy football story of the year thus far. But he gets New Orleans this week, so this is a prime opportunity to bust out. And Welker some an encouraging uptick in activity last week, so perhaps he can put those worries behind him as well, to be replaced by entirely new ones about him being traded.
He'll have a tough call to make with Reggie Bush banged up, and that'll probably matter a lot, because Yahoo has these two withint 0.12 of one another. Yowza.
PREDICTION: Sleezy, who with Sproles and Rodgers could benefit from a NO-GB shootout.
show me the money (0-3) vs. Beantown Champs (2-1)
Dusty's RB situation is in tatters, but he should be able to use Jennings again this week, which'll allow him to get Olsen out of his Flex (even though he's been pretty good).
Pete, meanwhile, is running the likes of Jeremy Kerley out there, but he's got fewer question marks. The projection points will narrow when Dusty gets in a new D in there and probably swaps in Ryan Williams for one of the RBs, but that's still a lot to overcome, and I don't think the WRs can pick up all that slack each week.
PREDICTION: Pete.
Big Damn Heroes (2-1) vs. I Be Weave (1-2)
Dex's team is pretty tough to get a read on. Andre had a huge opener, flopped in week 2, and then had a decent total that pretty much came from a single play at the start of week 3. Megatron, meanwhile, was solid the first couple of weeks but scored his first TD in week 3. And if you can predict what Michael Vick will do in a given day within any reasonable margin of error, you're a better man than I.
The other half of Dex's lineup is the exact opposite; solid if unsexy guys like the Law Firm and Cedric Benson, who seem destined to get you 10-12 points most weeks, rarely much less, and rarely a lot more.
He's got a touch matchup this week in Jay, who doesn't really have any blatant holes or huge question marks in his lineup, except for maybe DeSean Jackson, who's been decent so far. Easy to imagine all this analysis falling by the wayside if Arian Foster destroys the Titans, as he seems likely to do.
PREDICTION: Jay.
First game's tonight; BAL-CLE.
11 Angry Men (2-1) vs. RG3scompany (2-1)
As confident as I was about winning last week, that's how ambivalent I am about this one. Sounds like Spiller's going to be fine (thank goodness), but he'll probably miss this one game to be on the safe side. No biggie, except that the Steelers are on a bye, which means no Mike Wallace. Which means Pierre Thomas gets to play. Not that that's so scary; he's put up 18 and 10 points the last two weeks. But Adam's not missing anyone important, and Mathews is back as of last week. Romo's got a tough matchup, too, though half the time it seems like he plays up or down to his level of competition.
But I think out of guys like Marshall, RGII, Gore and Daniels, Adam's got to have a couple of no-shows at some point. If it's one of those guys, he probably wins. If it's two or more, I probably do.
Oh, also, I'll bet at Adam's for a good chunk of the day, so we can trash talk each other in person. Yay.
PREDICTION: I'll pick me, but just barely.
Liquor And Whores (3-0) vs. Sookie's Suckers (2-1)
PW's the only undefeated team left, and it's hard to imagine that ending. Sookie's struggling to replace Hernandez at TE, and she went all-in on Pats, which hasn't been great so far. Brady's been good-but-not-great, Nelson's been so-so, and Ridley's a riddle that probably can't be answered every week.
That PW's 3-0 with Chris Johnson in his lineup is mildly amazing. He's gotten good production out of his WRs, though, and has the lowest Points Against by almost 30. I think both continue this week. I don't think he puts up a great total, but I don't think LT puts up much of a fight, which means:
PREDICTION: PW.
Team Zissou (2-1) vs. Dillon Panthers (1-2)
Asking how Fiscal's gonna do is pretty much the same as asking how the Falcons will. And they look pretty good so far, and should look good against Carolina this week, too. Jones vanished in week 2 but looked good again in week 3, so there's some uncertainty there in an Atlanta offense with plenty of weapons (I always know, because I've got the other two!). The bigger problem, though, is that Forte looks like he might play, but perhaps not overwhelmingly, and Bush is kind of banged up. So what to do? Roll with them both, or pick one and take your chances? Tough call. To make matters worse, Bradshaw's back and starting, so while Andre Brown should play a fair bit, it's a bit of a gamble on just how much.
TONGO, meanwhile, is still relying on the Denver offense, and that might be a good bet against Oakland this week. Roethlisberger picked them apart easily, and you have to assume Peyton's going to be able to, too. Decker saw an increase in work, too. I think that'll be enough.
PREDICTION: TONGO.
The Replicants (0-3) vs. Wyld Stallyns (1-2)
Mike's start over the previous four years: 3-0, 3-0, 0-3, 2-1. He made the playoffs in all those years except for the 0-3 one (and even then he was still 6-7!), but he's 0-3 this year, and is less than a point ahead of Dusty for the second-lowest total. But he's also had the second highest points against, which makes sense because his roster looks decent. But he's gotten merely solid (rather than fantastic) production out of most of his big names: McCoy, Gronk, and Bryant. None have been flops, but neither have they justified their draft day value. So there's your problem, right there. *spits chewing tobacco and points to brake rotors*
On the other side, Sleezy has crazy firepower on paper (and I hasten to add that Firepower on Paper would be a great name for a band), but Rodgers has shockingly pumpkined over the first few weeks, and whether or not he bounces back (and if so, how much) is pretty much the #1 fantasy football story of the year thus far. But he gets New Orleans this week, so this is a prime opportunity to bust out. And Welker some an encouraging uptick in activity last week, so perhaps he can put those worries behind him as well, to be replaced by entirely new ones about him being traded.
He'll have a tough call to make with Reggie Bush banged up, and that'll probably matter a lot, because Yahoo has these two withint 0.12 of one another. Yowza.
PREDICTION: Sleezy, who with Sproles and Rodgers could benefit from a NO-GB shootout.
show me the money (0-3) vs. Beantown Champs (2-1)
Dusty's RB situation is in tatters, but he should be able to use Jennings again this week, which'll allow him to get Olsen out of his Flex (even though he's been pretty good).
Pete, meanwhile, is running the likes of Jeremy Kerley out there, but he's got fewer question marks. The projection points will narrow when Dusty gets in a new D in there and probably swaps in Ryan Williams for one of the RBs, but that's still a lot to overcome, and I don't think the WRs can pick up all that slack each week.
PREDICTION: Pete.
Big Damn Heroes (2-1) vs. I Be Weave (1-2)
Dex's team is pretty tough to get a read on. Andre had a huge opener, flopped in week 2, and then had a decent total that pretty much came from a single play at the start of week 3. Megatron, meanwhile, was solid the first couple of weeks but scored his first TD in week 3. And if you can predict what Michael Vick will do in a given day within any reasonable margin of error, you're a better man than I.
The other half of Dex's lineup is the exact opposite; solid if unsexy guys like the Law Firm and Cedric Benson, who seem destined to get you 10-12 points most weeks, rarely much less, and rarely a lot more.
He's got a touch matchup this week in Jay, who doesn't really have any blatant holes or huge question marks in his lineup, except for maybe DeSean Jackson, who's been decent so far. Easy to imagine all this analysis falling by the wayside if Arian Foster destroys the Titans, as he seems likely to do.
PREDICTION: Jay.
First game's tonight; BAL-CLE.
