2017 Thus Far (from a Box-Office Standpoint)

I decided I'd do a 2017 Box-Office perspective for fun, since I already keep track of these things in-general. I'll only make mention of films that either made more than 5 million worldwide or had a particularly substantial budget.


1.) Underworld: Blood Wars
Result: Mixed
Budget: 35 million (not counting marketing budget)
Box Office: 81.1 million (almost exactly half the previous film)

Notes: I refer to the results as mixed because, while the film made about half of what the previous film managed, it also only had half the production budget of Awakening. A film making 81 million at the box-office, with a budget that likely went around 50 million, subtracted by the theater's cut, isn't a theater success by any definition. Even Awakening wasn't much of a success in theaters, however. The DVD and Blu-Ray sales weren't bad though, and with the synergy that the series likely has (when you want to see the new film, you're more likely to buy the old ones), Blood Wars could end up churning a small profit. All in all, Underworld is an anomaly and it's difficult to guess if a sequel will happen or not. Some news outlets say it is in development, but that was before the numbers for the current film were released. Things could change, or they could not. Underworld plays by its own rules.


2.) Monster Trucks
Result: Major Flop
Budget: 125 million (not counting marketing budget)
Box Office: 64.5 million (barely half the production budget)

Notes: A massive flop for Paramount, who could have lost as much as one-hundred million dollars on this film, even after the DVD and Blu-Ray sales are taken into account.


3.) Sleepless
Result: Flop
Budget: 30 million (not counting marketing budget)
Box Office: 27 million


4.) The Bye Bye Man
Result: Minor Success
Budget: 7.4 million (not counting marketing budget)
Box Office: 24.6 million

Notes: Out-of-the-gate, the film looked poised to be a much larger success than it ended up being, some even called it a disaster. The film opened ahead of expectations with 14 million, but only ended up making another 10 million total in the weeks after. That's a very hefty drop, even for horror standards. Still, the film only cost 7.4 million and, for a January release, I wouldn't expect too large of a marketing budget. If the film hasn't barely broken even yet, it surely will on home-video, where it could find a second-life. I'm calling it a minor success, slight disappointment.


5.) xXx: Return of Xander Cage
Result: Success
Budget: 85 million (not counting marketing budget)
Box Office: 346 million (check notes for insight on this)

Notes: Theaters receive a small-percentage of a film's box-office gross and a film's production budget doesn't reflect the whole amount spent on said film. The extra detail in xXx's situation is that 163 million of its box-office gross came from China, where 75% of the profit is gobbled up and taken. That means, of 163 million, the company itself only receives about 40 million worth of profit. It'd be generous, but let's assume only thirty percent of the profit is gobbed up by the other theaters in the other countries, the film is left with about 168 million dollars worth of profit. Subtract the marketing budget and the production budget, and the numbers fall.

Still, it's not a bad haul, and with the DVD and Blu-Ray sales, I bet you this film earns Paramount about 70-80 million in the long-run. It isn't terrific considering the financial risk that had to be taken, but it's a decent result and more than I would've thought this film would make. I think this makes a xXx with a more Chinese-central narrative likely in the future.


6.) Resident Evil: The Final Chapter
Result: Success
Budget: 40 million (not counting marketing budget)
Box Office: 312.2 million

Notes: The situation for Resident Evil is similar to xXx's situation. Resident Evil made almost 160 million in China (40 million profits), but bombed domestically. Subtracting the 160 from its total (putting the 40 million to the side for later), there's about 150 million left-over. Assuming that other theater chains gobbled up about 50 million, Resident Evil leaves with about 140 million for itself. The difference is that Resident Evil cost 45 million less than xXx. Subtract that budget, and the amount for marketing, it's left with a bigger cut than what xXx received. Not to mention, the synergy bump the earlier films received is probably more sizable. The numbers aren't gargantuan for either of these movies, at least not in the way suggested by a 300 million plus box-office gross off such a small budget, but they're considerable.

I know this is the "last chapter," but I wouldn't be surprised to see a remake or sequel in some form for this film.


7.) A Dog's Purpose
Result: Big Success
Budget: 22 million (not counting marketing)
Box Office: 180 million

Notes: The negative controversy this film might have had didn't seem to do very much to change its box-office successes. Importantly, a lot of its film profits came domestically, and it's a film I wouldn't be surprised to see have healthy returns on DVD and Blu-Ray.


8.) Split
Result: Massive Hit
Budget: 9 million (not counting marketing)
Box Office: 270 million (30 times its production budget)

Notes: This was January's hit. The film did fantastic domestically and made a considerable profit overseas. The film that made 50 million less than Resident Evil: The Final Chapter and 76 million than xXx, likely made more profits than both of them combined.





... February - Coming Soon

Nice little sum up

__________________
Health is the greatest gift, contentment the greatest wealth, faithfulness the best relationship.
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Thanks!


Rings
Result: Disappointment
Budget: 25 million (not counting marketing)
Box Office: 82 million

Note: This film was meant as Rings "return to form," so to speak, with the series hoping to take over where Paranormal Activity left off as an annual series. The budget being hefty by average horror affair standards, albeit, still considerably less than the 38 million budget from the first film, and the fact that it only made one-third of what the first film made without even adjusting for inflation, likely entails that we won't be seeing Rings 2 next year. Rings likely garnered enough profits to cover both its production and advertising budget in-full, or, at least, it will after the DVD and Blu Ray sales boost its earnings, but this is still a disappointment.


The Space Between Us
Result: Major Flop
Budget: 30 million (see notes) (not counting marketing)
Box Office: 10.5 million

Notes: This film is a definite bust at the box-office, however, I remember many reports that stated STX Entertainment's exposure was minimal because they bought the film from Relativity.


I Am Not Your Negro
Result: Success
Budget: 1 million (not counting marketing)
Box Office: 6 million

Notes: Documentaries rarely make much of an impact at the box-office, and so, making 6 million off the 1 million dollar budget makes it a success in my book. The success it has had with the Academy Awards bolsters that fact.


The Lego Batman Movie
Result: Disappointment/Success
Budget: 80 million (not counting marketing)
Box Office: 297 million

Notes: The film did well enough, but, considering the brand appeal and the fact that The Lego Movie made almost 170 million more than this film, it's difficult not to call it a considerable disappointment. Still, it churned a profit and will make oodles of coin when it hits DVD and Blu-Ray.


Fifty Shades Darker
Result: Success
Budget: 55 million (not counting marketing)
Box Office: 379 million

Notes: On one-hand, Fifty Shades Darker made almost 200 million less than Fifty Shades of Grey, on the other-hand, unlike The Lego Movie and The Lego Batman Movie's situation, I don't think anyone really expected Fifty Shades Darker to build on what Fifty Shades started. The fact this film was able to make so close to 400 million is a considerable feat. This film broke even and likely even completely funded Fifty Shades Freed as well, which was filmed back-to-back with Darker.


John Wick: Chapter 2
Result: Considerable Success
Budget: 40 million (not counting marketing)
Box Office: 161 million

Notes: Doubling the budget of the first John Wick, which was a modest box-office success, the film was almost able to double the profits as well. The series isn't a certified blockbuster, but it had considerable growth from the previous film and made a nice fortune for itself. On a personal note, I'm very excited for John Wick 3, which looks like a done-deal.


A Cure for Wellness
Result: Big Flop
Budget: 40 million (not counting marketing)
Box Office: 24.3 million

Notes: Gore Verbinski's last film was a huge flop by the name of The Lone Ranger, this time around, he's working with a fraction of the funds but still unable to come anywhere near churning a profit. I haven't watched this film, like most everyone else, but I do look forward to when it comes out on home-video.


Fist Fight
Result: Disappointment
Budget: 25 million (not counting marketing)
Box Office: 40 million

Notes: While this isn't a flop, it didn't actually bring home any coin for the studio, in-fact, as of right now, it lost them money when deductions for marketing and the theater's cut are realized. When it is released to Blu-Ray and DVD, there's a chance it will break even, however.


A United Kingdom
Result: Flop
Budget: 20 million (not counting marketing)
Box Office: 10 million


Rock Dog
Result: Huge Flop
Budget: 60 million (not counting marketing)
Box Office: 21 million

Notes: Meant to be a huge-hit in China, the film flopped both there and in the States. This is the type of hurt that's hard to shake off.


The Great Wall
Result: Disappointment
Budget: 150 million
Box Office: 331 million


Notes: A film that was meant as a hit in China, but under-performed, then, downright disappointed everywhere else. The numbers may not look so bad, but keep in mind that the company only gets 25% of the money they got from China, which was most of it, and you realize this film lost over fifty million dollars.



Collide
Result: Flop
Budget: 21.5 million
Box Office: 4.8 million


Get Out
Result: Huge Success
Budget: 4.5 million
Box Office: 176 million +

Notes: It looks like, for the second month in a row, the most profitable film of the month will be a horror film (or one with horror elements, at least). I will only say that's how it looks because Fifty Shades might, ultimately, be the more profitable of the films in-terms of cold-hard cash. In terms of return on investment, however, it isn't even close at all. A funny fact is that Blumhouse produced both Split and Get Out. Split became their highest grossing film worldwide and Get Out is their highest grossing film domestically. Not a bad start to their year and Get Out is still playing making profits. I don't know what its worldwide expansion looks like or if it will even have much of one at all, but without any overseas assistance whatsoever, this film is already a roaring success.

- I will make continuous edits in proceeding weeks in case any of these films are released in any other territories, marking substantial fiscal change. Though, the only film I believe stands to be changed at all is Get Out.
- I will wait til closer to the end of April or even early May before I update with March's totals, other-wise, I'd be having to update substantial changes every other day. Maybe I'll do a "week one's batch of March" or something else instead.

Two I'm looking forward the most are "Split" & "Get Out".

Split comes out on DVD and Blu-Ray on April 18th.

Get Out is estimated to be out sometime in May.

"The Bye Bye Man
Result: Minor Success"

Fifty Shades Darker
Result: Success

This are the reasons that we have so many bad films this days. Thank you every mot******ker that pays for this s**ts.
A huge applause!

I was really excited for The Bye Bye Man, however, when the film came out and got godawful reviews, I never got around to watching it. The Bye Bye Man struck me as having a Sinister vibe and it had Doug Jones from Pans and Hellboy as the antagonist!

To keep myself productive on this thread, I'll also do brief analysis on film production companies for ***** and giggles purposes. I have OCD, don't judge me!

Paramount Pictures

TLDR: - Ghost in the Shell isn't a financial success for Paramount. Paramount has had a bad year too with a 100 million write-off from Monster Trucks and Rings only making 1/3rd of what The Ring made at the box-office without even adjusting for inflation.


For naysayers, if it means anything, the film won't see sizable profits in any regard for Paramount. The film cost 110 million, but only opened domestically with about 20 million. Since the film has such negative word-of-mouth, short-legs can be anticipated, at any rate, this film could end up with only around 40 million total domestically, which is, of course, where movie companies receive their largest cut of the profits. Overseas, it is faring better, having made 40 million worldwide, however, Paramount only receives 40% of the ticket sales in overseas countries and receives only 25% of ticket sales in China. I think it has a shot of doing well in China and Japan, but, at best, I think it will only replenish their funds, not churn any actual profit.

This is especially bad for Paramount, who started the year off with Monster Trucks, a film that cost 125 million and only made 65 million at the box-office. Monster Trucks resulted in a 100 million dollar write-off for Paramount. After that, xXx: Return of Xander Cage did well, but almost every dime of profit was lost to pay for the Monster Trucks fiasco. Next, they had Rings, which they were begging for a big hit from, but, instead, it only ended up making one-third of what the first film made. (It's the reason why they canceled October's reboot of Friday the 13th)

We'll ignore that in December, Silence (Martin Scorsese's film) made them 16 million off a 40 million dollar budget.

And, now, with Ghost in the Shell looking like it will either lose money or just barely keep from doing so by the skin of its teeth, Paramount is four months into the year having either lost a great deal of money or having only made nickels and dimes in the grand scheme of things.

Baywatch and Transformers: The Last Knight are the films expected to "save" Paramount from itself and they could very well do that, but the fact that their entire first quarter was a flop should likely change how they approach things.

Studio Averages - Win/Even/Loss

Paramount: 1/1/3
- Big Loss
- Considerable Win
- Disappointment
- Big Loss
- DIsappointment

Focus Features: 0/0/1
- Small Loss

Screen Gems: 1/1/0
- Disappointment
- Win

Summit Entertainment: 2/0/1
- Considerable Win
- Big Loss
- Modest Win

Legendary: 1/0/1
- Considerable Loss
- Small Win

STX Entertainment: 1/0/2
- Minor Win
- Loss
- Disappointment

Universal: 5/0/1
- Big Win
- Big Win
- Big Win
- Considerable Loss
- Big Win
- Big Win

Warner Bros.: 3/1/3
- Small Win
- Disappointment
- Small Win
- Considerable Loss
- Disappointment
- Huge Loss
- Small Win

20th Century Fox: 2/0/4
- Big Win
- Big Loss
- Considerable Win
- Disappointment
- Considerable Disappointment
- Disappointment

Dreamworks
- Considerable Win

Disney: 2/1/0
- Big Win
- Big Win
- Disappointment/Mixed

Sony: 2/0/1
- Small Success
- Big Loss
- Minor Hit

Lionsgate: 0/0/1
- Considerable Loss

Open Road: 0/0/2
- Big Loss
- * Big Loss (The Promise)

Logan
Result: Huge Success
Budget: 97 million (not counting promotion)
Box Office: < 600 million

Notes: Fox's own Marvel Cinematic Universe continues to run strong after the many, many installments it has had in its long-lasting franchise. X-Men: Apocalypse under-performed last year (200 million less than X-Men: Days of Future Past), but where it descended, the newly debuted Deadpool brought new life to the series of superhero films (almost forty million more than the second highest grossing film in the series, though, not adjusted for inflation). Logan is another tally in the win column, garnering six-hundred million dollars at the box-office. The difference between this and, say, Apocalypse, is that Logan had half the production budget. This is undoubtedly a huge win for Fox.


The Shack
Result: Modest Success
Budget: 20 million
Box Office: < 60 million

Notes: Spiritual films don't always perform too well at the box-office, minus the occasional breakout like God is Dead finding good numbers. This film likely didn't have a huge promotion budget and thereby, it likely broke even when all was said in done. If it didn't, it definitely will on the home-market.


Before I Fall
Result: Minor Success
Budget: 5 million
Box Office: < 13 million


Kong: Skull Island
Result: Success
Budget: 185 million
Box Office: < 565

Notes: This film is one of those films that is particularly difficult to measure the success for. About one-hundred and sixty million of the film's profits came from China, which means it only was given about forty-million of that sum. If you assume that theaters only skimmed about forty percent from the remainder (it's said that overseas territories usually take 60%, but, of course, they get a larger piece of the pie in the United States), the film will only pocket about 285 million total. Subtract 185 million for the production budget, you're looking at 100 million dollars profit. The 2014 Godzilla film had a 65 million dollar advertising and marketing budget, and so, we can assume Skull Island had about the same. (Then again, Godzilla had a smaller production budget than Kong: Skull Island by about 25 million.) This means that Kong: Skull Island didn't make a colossal amount of profit.

The reason I consider this film a success, however, is because I believe it provided synergy based profitability for Warner Bros. and Legendary Pictures. The film likely led to a small improvement in returns of Blu-Ray and DVD sales for Godzilla, and, more importantly, the film likely sold a lot of toys. As someone who (unfortunately) has a job working in retail as a stock-person, I can tell you they have created a huge amount of merchandise for this film. Add that in with the decent Blu-Ray and DVDs sales that Kong: Skull Island will likely receive, and that it's all essentially a very large billboard for the eventual Kong vs. Godzilla film. I call it a success.


T2 Trainspotting
Result: Small Success
Budget: 18 million
Box Office: 40 million

Notes: Assuming the advertising and marketing budget is around 10 million, it's likely this film didn't break even. That, and it made a lot less than the first Trainspotting film, especially when you consider the adjustments that have to made for inflation and how much smaller the first film's budget was. Still, I call it a modest success because it doesn't appear to have lost any money, and when it comes out on DVD and Blu-Ray, I wouldn't be surprised for it to have considerable success. For instance, I myself would have went to theaters for this film had it been playing anywhere near where I lived and will surely be watching it when it's released on DVD.


The Belko Experiment
Result: Small Success
Budget: 5 million
Box Office: 9 million

Notes: This wasn't a hit film by any assessment, but this film likely had a very small marketing budget and was never expected to churn out tremendous profits. Blumhouse has had a tremendous year so far in 2017, but you can't compare Belko Experiment to the likes of Get Out or Split. This film is more comparable to The Green Inferno and Incarnate. It had the exact same budget as both those films and made somewhere smack-dab in the middle of their profits. That, and Blumhouse specifically targeted theaters known for their support of horror films in all three of these cases. This looks like the type of film that would go straight to video on-demand, where it'd see small returns. Instead, what they did is they released it to a couple hundred theaters, covered the production costs and a good portion of the marketing costs, and now, hope to make actual profits on video on-demand.


Beauty and the Beast
Result: Huge Success
Budget: 160 million
Box Office: < 1.1 billion

Notes: There isn't a lot more that can be said about this film. Beauty and the Beast was a phenomenal success for Disney, even outdoing their films like Jungle Book and doubling the profits of the very successful Cinderella film. Beauty and the Beast has released in all of its major territories now, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it finish with around with around 1.2 billion. This film is an exemplary showcase of what an A-list celebrity can draw when they're at the wheel of the right vehicle.


Power Rangers
I]Result:[/i] Disappointment
Budget: 100 million
Box Office: 133 million

Notes: Power Rangers was a film I was modestly anticipating for myself. I didn't think the film would be great, but I was at least hoping for a fun enough throwback to my childhood. I wasn't able to see it in theaters, but the reviews are out and it looks as though it is at least mildly enjoyable. Unfortunately, too few showed up at the theaters to make this film much of a success. The film started off with a forty million opening in the United States, but its multiplier has been small, in that, it has only made eighty-three million total in the States and is looking to finish a little shy of ninety million. The film had a large budget, and while its US numbers aren't a death sentence, the film would need to triple that overseas. That won't happen. And, really, it isn't about whether or not a sequel will happen anymore, by these numbers, it would make no sense, but whether or not Lionsgate will stand to lose money or not.

Luckily, the film still has a release in Japan, which, you would think, could make a good amount of coin (not enough to make it a success though), and if the toy sales skyrocketed with its release, the film might not lose too much money for them.


Life
Result: Flop
Budget: 58 million
Box Office: 73 million

Notes: I can't say I really cared about this film. I really enjoy Jake Gyllenhaal and Ryan Reynolds, but that didn't change the fact the film looked like a rehash of Alien. Granted, I have no doubts that Alien itself likely even at the time of release, was a concept that had been frequented before, but Life's trailers made me feel a massive deja vu. Fellow moviegoers didn't show up for this film either, with a budget of almost sixty million and a marketing budget that was likely close to enough to make the total expenses north of eighty million, and the fact that theaters likely receives about twenty million of Life's profits, we're looking at a film that stood to lose about thirty million. The home video sales will help diminish the losses, but won't come anywhere close to covering them. This was a bust.



Chips
Result: Flop
Budget: 25 million
Box Office: 25 million

Notes: Likely forty million or so was spent to bring Chips to theaters, with the cut received from theaters, Chips hasn't even managed to make half that back for itself. The film could have a second-life on home video as a lot of comedies do, but it won't make a difference, this film was a bust.

Ghost in the Shell
Result: Big Disappointment
Budget: 110 million
Box Office: 163 million

Notes: What more can be said about this film? The film had a lot of criticism for featuring a white woman in a role known for being portrayed by a Japanese woman and when the mixed-to-negative reviews piled in, the film never took off. The losses will be substantial, a lot of money went into the marketing, and this film likely cost over one-hundred and fifty million when the dust in settled. The fact that most of the film's profits were made overseas (where the companies receive a smaller cut of the profits) doesn't help matters either, this film definitely lost Paramount a considerable chunk of change.



The Zookeepers Wife
Result: Flop
Budget: 20 million
Box Office: 15 million

Notes: I don't know a whole lot about this film. The reviews are mixed, however, and it didn't make enough to cover its production budget, and especially lost when you consider the cut theaters receive of its profits and the amount (> 5 million) spent on marketing the film. This looks like the type of film that might have some life on home video, but I don't think it will have enough life to make it a profitable effort.



The Boss Baby
Result: Considerable Success
Budget: 125 million
Box Office: 440 million

Notes: This isn't a film I had on my radar, in-fact, I was certain it'd fail to churn a profit at the box-office. In the end, however, the film ended up opening higher than anticipated, then, it had considerable staying power for itself. The film isn't a "huge success," in that, it wasn't a "huge" money-maker or juggernaut, like Madagascar, Shrek, Kung Fu Panda, or How to Train Your Dragon, but it's definitely a feather in Dreamwork's hat. As a matter of fact, it's about perfectly in line with some of its recent films. Penguins of Madagascar made 370 million off a 130 million budget, Trolls made 345 million off a 125 million budget, and Home made 386 million off a 135 million budget. Trolls is receiving a sequel, and since The Boss Baby still has a little juice (In the US, at the same point in release, Home went onto make another 30 million, not counting the little more it made overseas. I think it will reach over 450 million before the dust settles), I think The Bossiest Baby is a shoe-in.

Really like these reports you're doing. Looking forward to more.

Thanks, I really appreciate that!

I finished the March box office perspective, now, I'll wait a little while until April's films have been given a chance to run their duration. Though, I won't have to wait too much, April is a ridiculously weak month. This year, April only really exists for Fate of the Furious, nothing else will likely even top 200 million besides it.

The Case for Christ
Result: Small Success
Budget: 3 million (not counting promotion)
Box Office: 13.9 million


Smurfs: The Lost Village
Result: Disappointment (Minor Success)
Budget: 60 million (not counting promotion)
Box Office: < 179 million

Notes: Enough information isn't necessarily available to conclude on where, exactly, the third installment in the Smurfs franchise will finish. The film's a definite disappointment no matter where it ends up though. In 2011, the new iteration of the franchise took the industry by storm, making almost six-hundred million at the box-office at a budget of around one-hundred and ten million. However, by 2013, a lot of the momentum had diminished and The Smurfs 2 was only able to garner about three-hundred and fifty million (over two-hundred million less!) than the first film. In present times, 2017 comes knocking, and they've shaved about fifty million off of the budget. Unfortunately, in its current trajectory, Smurfs: The Lost Village looks as though it will make over one-hundred million less than The Smurfs 2. In other words, this is a three-hundred million dollar decline from the first film.

Still, this film only cost sixty million, and while I anticipate the marketing budget likely brought the expenses to around one-hundred million, if the film is able to reach two-hundred million overseas and, maybe, a little over that, then, with the help of the home video and Blu-Ray sales, I think the film could break even. Even still, I doubt we'll be seeing the Smurfs on the big screen again for a while.


Going in Style
Result: Modest Success
Budget: 25 million
Box Office: < 75 million

Notes: This film isn't exactly where it's needed to be a modest success yet, but, the film looks like it might be able to reach forty-five million at the domestic box-office. I don't have the information on how much of an expansion, if any, it will receive overseas, but if it is able to come even close to what it made in the States, then, it will break even before it hits the home-market. (Assuming the marketing budget was small, like it appeared to be.) This is the junior effort from Zach Braff (Garden State, Wish I Was Here) and while it wasn't enough to be considered a hit, it was a modest success that should work to advance him to his next project.


Gifted
Result: Small Success
Budget: 7 million
Box Office: < 23.7 million

Notes: This film isn't completely out of juice yet, and, as of this writing, it's following a little less than the weekly trajectory of Going in Style. I doubt the film will receive too large of an expansion overseas, but if the film is able to make twenty-five million or so, it'll recoup its marketing budget and most of its production budget. If it does that, the home video returns will be all profit. Gifted isn't a hit or a huge money-maker, but won't cost the studio much and might make a very small profit for itself. This is, of course, down from Marc Webb's Spider-Man films, but, more comparable, it is considerably down from 500 Days of Summer, which had a nearly identical budget and made sixty million at the box-office.


The Fate of the Furious
Result: Huge Success
Budget: 250 million
Box Office: < 1.197 billion

Notes: The Fate of the Furious was a huge success, assuring the series will carry on for the foreseeable future. Some statistical points I'd like to make about this film, however, are about its market share, as well as its budget. First and foremost, The Fate of the Furious' marketing budget exceeded Furious 7's budget by sixty million. The film is also on-pace to make more than one-hundred million less than the previous film in the series did at the domestic box-office. Keep in mind that the domestic box office is where movie companies receive their highest slice of the pie and this will appear more substantial. I don't think this necessarily indicates that the series is losing steam, because I believe a lot of facts catapulted Furious 7's receipts and it'd have been unrealistic to expect the same returns. Regardless, this remains a large hit for Universal.


Spark
Result: Huge Flop
Budget: < 40 million?
Box Office: > $200,000

Notes: The budget is sketchy when it comes to this film, and I don't know if I'll ever have confirmation on it either. I have heard the budget for forty million thrown around and I have heard rumblings of a budget as high as sixty million. Foreign films aren't entirely marketed with intentions of theatrical success, but, even still, assuming this budget is even, at all, in the ballpark range, it seems this was a major miss.


The Lost City of Z
Result: ?
Budget: 30 million
Box Office: < 12.7 million

Notes: I don't have enough information about this film to determine whether or not it is a success or failure. On one-hand, the film made only a fraction of its budget at the box-office, not counting the amount that went into it for marketing as well, but, on the other-hand, this is an Amazon film, designed for their streaming service, therefore, it likely means this film is meant as a marathon, not a sprint. The film received high reviews from critics and could flourish on their streaming service later on.


Unforgettable
Result: Minor Miss
Budget: 12 million
Box Office: < 14.4 million

Notes: Considering the cut that theaters receive, this film was unable to cover its production budget, and, after that, expenses for marketing mean this film lost a few million. The home video sales will help it, but I don't think it'll be enough to spin this as anything other than a minor miss.


The Promise
Result: Huge Flop *
Budget: 90 million
Box Office: 8.5 million

Notes: I think The Promise can start the conversation of what is actually considered as a flop in the film industry. In this thread, I perceive it as being when a film fails to recoup its marketing and production budget, after that, I don't look at is as a flop, but, more, a disappointment. This film's budget is enormous and the film barely grossed a tenth of that budget. The kicker? The entire budget was donated by Kirk Kerkorian, an American businessman with Armenian roots. Thereby, while the film didn't churn a profit, it doesn't really matter.


The Circle
Result: Disappointment
Budget: 18 million
Box Office: 24.2 million

Notes: The Circle is a film with Tom Hanks and Emma Watson involved. A few months ago, Emma Watson was in a film that made a billion dollars worldwide, whereas Tom Hanks has been a star for decades, thus, for this film to do so poorly is a considerable misfire for STX Entertainment. The silver-lining is that the film wasn't insanely expensive, I don't know whether or not the film will be released in any other foreign markets, but if it makes it in the United Kingdom, it could do wonders for it. If the film is able to make 30 million or, with a little luck, 40 million, I think the film will have a real shot at breaking even when it's released on Blu-Ray and DVD. Either way, this is a considerable disappointment.


How To Be a Latin Lover
Result: Success
Budget: 10 million
Box Office: < 41.4 million

Notes: I don't have a lot of input about this film. It sort-of blind-sighted analysts and churned very good theater averages.


Baahubali 2: The Conclusion
Result: Big Success
Budget: 39 million
Box Office: < 190 million

Notes: This film is the highest grossing Indian film of all-time, and was, in-general, a considerable success altogether. Furthermore, it did extremely well in its release here in the States, beating The Circle even though it had basically no mainstream coverage whatsoever.


Sleight
Result: Modest Success
Budget: $250,000
Box Office: < 3.7 million

Notes: The film likely had a small production budget, but, more importantly, it had a tiny marketing budget as well. The reviews are positive enough that it may have a fruitful life on the home market, enabling it to churn a small profit.

May


Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 2
Result: Huge Success
Budget: 200 million
Box Office: < 860 million

Notes: Working off the momentum and goodwill the first Guardians of the Galaxy built for it, Vol. 2 has been a tremendous success for the Marvel Cinematic Universe. The Guardians may have been originally imagined as an oddball group or experiment by Disney, but, no doubt, they have since found their way churning numbers as comfortably as Iron Man and Captain America do. This film experienced small growth over the very successful first film and will end up as the fifth most successful film in the Marvel catalog. Having already been released in all its major markets, I expect Guardians will end up somewhere shy of 850 million total.


King Arthur: Legend of the Sword
Result: Massive Flop
Budget: 175 million
Box Office: < 140.8 million

Notes: This film is directed by Guy Ritchie, a director that is most known for his largely successful Sherlock Holmes films. This attempt at re-imagining beloved stories, however, was much less fruitful. With 175 spent on production and at least 100 million spent on marketing, this film is set to be a massive loss for Warner Bros. Speculating that about 40% of its current profit went to theaters, this film has lost over 200 million dollars.


Snatched
Result: Flop
Budget: 42 million
Box Office: < 57.5 million

Notes: Trainwreck was an unexpected success that brought Amy Shumer to new heights, the same can not be said for Snatched, however. The film failed to find a large audience with domestic audiences, and films like this usually fail to find much of an audience anywhere else (less than 22% of Trainwreck's box-office success was overseas). At its current trajectory, Snatched looks set to fall somewhere around 60-65 million, if not a little shy of that. Considering the cut that theaters receive and the amount that went into marketing, Snatched will not break-even in theaters, nor will it likely make all its money back on the home-video market. This will cost Universal a small fortune, which won't hurt them at all in the long run.


Alien: Covenant
Result: Considerable Miss
Budget: 97 million
Box Office: < 231 million

Notes: I haven't had the chance to see Alien: Covenant, which is convenient, considering how most have apparently not gotten around to seeing the film. My excuse is that it left local theaters so fast that I couldn't see it back-to-back with Pirates of the Caribbean like I hoped. I'll definitely buy the DVD straightaway as it comes out though. As for the film's box office prospects, as you can see, it's a considerable disappointment for Fox. Covenant's more-or-less out of gas right now, except for a release in China, and I don't expect it to finish with much more than two-hundred million worldwide by the end. If you're doing the math, this film will struggle to break-even, let alone justify a sequel. A production budget of 97 million, this film was around 30 million cheaper to produce than Prometheus, however, it has so far made less than half of what that film made, and at its current trajectory, this film will make at least 175 million less than it. The advertising budget and the cut that theaters receive means that it is unlikely this film with churn a profit. If the film has synergy, performs well in China, and has a good life at the home video market, it's possible it will save some face, but I do believe this is the end of the Alien franchise, at least for the foreseeable future.


Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul
Result: Disappointment
Budget: 22 million
Box Office: < 37.4 million

Notes: The last film in the Diary of the Wimpy Kid film made close to 80 million worldwide at the box office from the same budget, a decline of over 50 million means this is a disappointment for 20th Century Fox. The budget hasn't been recouped by the box office receipts yet, and the production budget will put it in the hole even further than that. Synergy and home video success might minimize losses, the last film was able to make almost 21 million in home video sales, if this installment was able to boost sales for other installments and is able to bring decent numbers for itself, I think it has a fair shot of breaking even. But, either way, this is another definite disappointment for Fox and the final theatrical installment of the series.


Everything, Everything
Result: Small Success
Budget: 10 million
Box Office: < 28.3 million

Notes: Don't know much about this film, won't pretend to. All I know are numbers. This film received mixed reviews and doesn't have a lot of juice left as far as theaters are concerned, luckily, the budget was conservative and as long as the advertising budget wasn't too over-the-top, this film will break even early on the home-market, if it doesn't barely do so in theaters. I call it a small success, not a noteworthy moneymaker, not a huge misfire.


Baywatch
Result: Considerable Disappointment
Budget: 69 million
Box Office: < 173.7

Notes: I wouldn't call myself a fan of Baywatch by any stretch of the imagination, but I definitely expected this to be a more substantial money-maker for Paramount, which has had one of the roughest years I've ever seen for a movie-company. The film greatly under-performed and with a budget of nearly seventy million and a marketing budget that likely put it well-over 100 million total, the film would need close to 200 million worldwide to have any real shot of breaking even. Unfortunately, that doesn't look feasible. On the bright-side, however, the film still has the United Kingdom and a few other territories, and so, I think it will keep from being a complete disaster.


Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales
Result: Disappointment - ***
Budget: 230 million
Box Office: < 775 million

Notes: I feel like I have to go right on the offensive with explaining why a film that can make half a billion in two weeks is a disappointment. And so, I'll crack my knuckles and begin: the film's production budget is speculated as being around 230 million, the marketing budget is more difficult to speculate on. I've heard some box office analysts claim it to be as high as 200 million itself, which isn't unusual for a huge juggernaut, but I find it a little too bullish. Then again, I wouldn't be surprised to find out that much went into the long-gestating sequel, which was meant to reignite the billion-dollar franchise. Either way, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales is experiencing significant decreases. Yes, the film has made half a billion, but what has to be kept in mind is that the film released itself in virtually its entire market (except China). This weekend (first weekend of June), Pirates made less than 100 million worldwide. Considering it only goes downhill from here, the totals will continue to shrink in proceeding weeks.

Domestically, Pirates was hit hard. The film dropped almost 70% in its second weekend. The third Pirates film made just over 300 million, the fourth made almost 70 million less than that, and now, it looks as though this film will struggle to make even half of what the third Pirates film made.

Disney wanted overseas to do the heavy-lifting, and, while it did well, it looks like this film could struggle to make 700 million worldwide, 300 million less than the last film, and, not only that, but overseas receipts are substantially smaller than domestic profits. This isn't a flop by any stretch of the imagination, don't get me wrong, but truly won't be a very profitable film.

Do I think this marks the end of the Pirates franchise? I think that a film that is able to make 700 million worldwide expresses interest, but not as much interest as Disney would like for it. The 230 million dollar budget and expensive marketing is what makes this a disappointment, if they cut that in half or went for something smaller, I think this franchise could continue to substantiate profits for them. However, since Disney has their live-action adaptations, Marvel, and Star Wars, it's very possible they might let the franchise end.

Update - 7/31/17: I stand by what I said about Disney, perhaps, not wanting to continue fourth with the franchise because of its diminished numbers. The Pirates film is particularly expensive, and because of this, I believe they might choose to cut their losses. Especially considering that this film made about 250 million less than the last film and that the returns should be expected to only get smaller from here. However, I will say that the film has had commendable staying power and I think that it should tell them that a less expensive installment could prove particularly profitable for them.

The first five months of the year are upon us, and thus far, some common heavy-hitters have continued to perform, whereas others have had misfires.

In-particular, Disney and Universal have flexed their muscles considerably this year.

Universal owes a great deal of dealt to their partnership with production company Blumhouse for bringing them the largely successful Get Out and Split films, which have grossed half-a-billion together with a production budget of less than 15 million between them. The film A Dog's Purpose also did remarkably well, and while Fifty Shades Darker had a large decline from its predecessor, the film made a substantial profit as well. The only real hiccup was with The Great Wall, a substantial loss that will be mitigated some due to how it was divvied across various different companies. Their holy grail, however, was The Fate of the Furious film, which made over 1.2 billion dollars at the box-office.

Disney had more of a one-two punch approach, having only released three big films so far. Beauty and the Beast delivered big-time, and stands ahead of Fate of the Furious as the biggest film of the year. Meanwhile, Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 2 was an enormous success, making over 800 million at the box-office. Pirates of the Caribbean is under-performing right now, but it stands to at least cover its basis and keep from any real loss.

However, Warner Bros. and Paramount have had a rocky road so far.

Warner Bros.'s year hasn't been all bad. First and foremost, Kong: Skull Island did well enough. The film wasn't a huge, huge money-makers, but it broke even, avoided disaster, and likely earned a small profit. The Lego Batman Movie also wasn't a huge, huge money-maker, but it broke even, avoided disaster, and likely earned a small profit. And, finally, the same can be said for Chips and Everything, Everything. Fist Fight didn't move the needle and cost them a little bit, not a lot. Same with Unforgettable. Chips cost them quite a bit more than that though. And, finally, King Arthur: Legend of the Sword looks like it will lose them 150 million by itself. Luckily, they have Wonder Woman and the eventual Justice League film to keep them afloat.

Paramount started their year with a 100 million dollar write-off in Monster Trucks, a loss that more-or-less gobbled every bit of profit that xXx was able to make for itself. Rings under-performed, not enough to lose money, but, not enough to move the needle either. Ghost in the Shell, however, cost them another considerable chunk of profit. In-fact, it looks poised to lose them another 100 million dollars. Baywatch was one of the films meant as a saving grace, however, so far, it also looks like it is on-pace to either lose or barely break-even. Transformers is the film they're banking on turning the year around for them.

Wonder Woman
Result: Huge Success
Budget: 149 million
Box Office: < 813 million

Notes: The DC Extended Universe has had a rocky road, a lot of this, however, is from a critical standpoint though, and not a fiscal perspective. Man of Steel and Batman v. Superman, respectively, were not financial juggernauts. Their numbers are impressive on-paper, but when you take into account the amount spent on marketing and for promoting the films, they aren't the return-on-investment that Warner Bros. would have liked, especially after having reeled off the success of The Dark Knight Trilogy before it. Suicide Squad received the worst receives of all (rightfully so, in my opinion), but the film also righted the ship in some respects. Lessening the production budget by seventy-five million, and very likely spending a substantial amount less on marketing, Suicide Squad nearly matched Batman v. Superman from a domestic standpoint, but fell shy of its totals overseas. Even still, the series' potential seemed deflated, at least from a financial standpoint (and critical, actually), that is, until Wonder Woman. The female Amazonian superhero arrived in theaters with critical acclaim, opening to one-hundred million, which is less than Suicide Squad, Man of Steel, or Batman v. Superman did. The kicker is how it has held. The other films dropped over sixty-percent on their second weekends, whereas, Wonder Woman rode its excellent word-of-mouth to a decline of less than fifty percent. This is all from a domestic standpoint though, but the film is now pacing ahead of Man of Steel, and is set to finish ahead of Suicide Squad and Batman v. Superman in the United States (the biggest territory for receipts).

Now, Wonder Woman isn't likely to beat out Suicide Squad's or Batman v. Superman's worldwide totals, but, it could still very well be the most profitable return-on-investment. Man of Steel had a budget of 225 million and Batman v. Superman had a budget of 250 million, whereas, Suicide Squad chopped it down to 175 million. Wonder Woman, on the other-hand, has went ahead and shaved another 26 million off the total, and, not only that, but it looks to have the cheapest marketing budget by a long shot. This is because Warner Bros. strategically went with a lighter approach, one with less oomph, trying to focus on their core-demographic. A majority of the viewing audience on its opening weekend was women, an under-served demographic that has proven to show up in droves if they are treated with appealing entertainment. This film looks like it has a real shot at coming close to the 668 million that Man of Steel made, and, for about 125 million less put into it. Not only that, but it likely boosted intrigue for Justice League a lot more as well.

Note: Wonder Woman exceeded even the most optimistic of expectations, surpassing, not only Man of Steel, but Suicide Squad, with a better return on investment than Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice had. Wonder Woman's future currently has a lot more potential than any other character in the DC Universe, even their flag-ship Batman character.


Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie
Result: Minor Disappointment
Budget: 38 million
Box Office: < 100.8 million

Notes: I've have to update with further analysis about this film on a later date, as I am waiting for more information to come out about its overseas totals. Captain Underpants received very positive reviews from critics, but its currently the second-least grossing film in Dreamworks' catalog of films. Fortunately, Captain Underpants is also the cheapest film in their collection, at only 38 million total (The Boss Baby cost 125 million, for some perspective.) and I bet that the marketing budget doesn't put it much over 50 million (because it's already a title of noteworthy esteem because of the books). The film still hasn't covered its initial costs, and with Cars 3 hitting theaters, then, Despicable Me 3 a little after that, Captain Underpants will lose a lot of theaters. On the bright-side though, the film looks like it will drop less than 50% this upcoming weekend, and if it can hold on, I think the film might be able to make it to 65-70 million domestically. If it can, that will almost be enough to cover its production and advertising costs, and, lastly, DVD and Blu-Ray sales will help it find a small profit. Still, to justify a "Second Epic Movie," it will need some help from overseas totals, and thus far, there isn't enough information to make the call on whether or not it will get the help it needs. As you might expect, a film like this doesn't look to have huge cross-over appeal.

Personally, I watched the film, and I thought it was a very fun film, but it was more a nostalgic novelty on my part and I don't believe most adults will enjoy it as much.


The Mummy
Result: Disappointment
Budget: 125 million
Box Office: < 407.8 million

Notes: This film was a dud, especially at the domestic level. Thus far, The Mummy has made 38 million. The film is expected to drop over 50% in its second weekend (which isn't actually that bad of a hold for the average blockbuster, but is bad when you don't start-off in a big way) and will likely only end up with about 80-or-so million in the United States. For some perspective, The Mummy and The Mummy Returns (the Brendan Frasier films) made double what this film will make in the United States, (if you adjust for inflation, the second made four times what this film will make and the first made three times what this one will make), and The Mummy 3 and Scorpion King film will also make substantially more than that in the United States (granted, this new film has already beaten The Scorpion Kings' worldwide total).

Studio executives have done their best to manipulate the numbers in their favors, trying to spin it as if this was a success on their part. For instance, they mentioned that this is the best ever opening for a Tom Cruise film. This isn't a lie, but one should know that the Mission Impossible, like most films, have an international "roll-out," where they don't release the film in all the territories at the same time. If we looked at the individual territories when the film first premiered in each territory and compared it to The Mummy, you'd get a completely different result.

The truth is, The Mummy wasn't a success and is on-pace to either lose Universal some money or only barely break even. Let's break this down - Of their 179 million total, over 50 million came from China. China is the second-leading market, but it also has the smallest exchange rates. Of that 50 million, The Mummy only made 12.5 million. The rest of the 90 million that was churned out overseas, half of that will be given to the theaters as well. Thereby, the overseas total that Universal was very quick to tout only adds up to about 57.5 million, added up with the 26.6 million they've received so far in the United States, and we're looking at about 84.1 million.

The film cost 125 million, and if we're being conservative, it cost 175 million when you take into account the marketing and the cost for promoting the film, which was, after all, intended to be the start of their "Dark Universe," so, they likely ended up spending as much as 200 million. (Edit: Some are projecting this film cost as much as 345 million total.)

I'll keep this updated. The Mummy will likely be able to close-in on around 400 million worldwide, but because of how bad the reviews are, this film stands to lose a sizable chunk for Universal.

This isn't the end of their Dark Universe, however. They've already done too much development for them to stop now, nor should they. A lack of interest in The Mummy doesn't suggest lack of interest in The Invisible Man, or something else, for instance. They'll simply have to reevaluate how they want to present their "Universe" from here on.


It Comes at Night
Result: Minor Disappointment
Budget: 5 million
Box Office: < 19.2 million

Notes: Some box-office analysts have labeled this as a disappointment for A24. This is because the film had the largest theater count for any film from the company and the film received excellent reviews from critics. This film looked poised to be another "The Witch" (40 million, 3 million budget) for them, reaching for the brass ring, so to speak. Unfortunately, similar to The Witch, It Comes at Night had negative word of mouth from moviegoers and (unlike The Witch) performed beneath their expectations. Luckily, it won't be a substantial strike against them. The film looks poised to gross 15-20 million worldwide, and that will be more than enough to pay for the production budget. Assuming they didn't go too "all in" with the marketing for the film, it should be able to recoup all of its investment sometime on the home market. Hopefully, a miracle happens and it holds particularly well in the proceeding weeks. I'll keep you updated.

Update: The film didn't hold as well as I would have hoped, and looks like it will struggle to make it to fourteen million. It doesn't change the result very much, the film will likely recoup its investment, but it probably won't churn too substantial of a profit.


Cars 3
Result: Disappointment
Budget: 175 million
Box Office: < 343 million

Notes: Cars 2 left a less than savory taste in the mouths of many moviegoers, receiving the first downright negative reaction for a Pixar film. Cars 2 made substantially less than its predecessor from a domestic perspective, however, it more than made up for it with overseas totals. While Cars 3 has received a considerably more positive reaction than the second film, moviegoers have been less receptive this go-around. The film looks poised to have a drop-off from Cars 2 about as large as what the second film had from the first. The film will have a segmented roll-out overseas, so I can't really tell you whether it's a success or misfire yet. All I can say is that it is substantially less successful than the previous films domestically, and that it looks poised to be one of the least grossing Pixar films in the territory.

Luckily, merchandise sales for Cars are so outrageous that this film can literally be seen as a giant billboard for the toy juggernaut.


Rough Night
Result: Disappointment
Budget: 20 million
Box Office: < 45 million

Notes: A concept that seemed fool-proof, with the popular Scarlett Johansson taking a rare comedic turn alongside the likes of Kate McKinnon in what was marketed as a raunchy outing for moviegoers. The film received mixed-reviews, but the same can be said about a lot of comedies that ended up finding mainstream success. The film has already lost so much of its momentum, starting low to begin with, and it's unlikely the ship will be able to be righted.


47 Meters Down
Result: Success
Budget: 5 million
Box Office: < 48.7 million

Notes: I don't know much about this film. What I do know, however, is that the film dropped only 33% in its second weekend at the box-office, which is uncommon for a horror feature. The film has already paid for its production budget, and, at its current trajectory, it will likely cover its advertising budget before it leaves theaters. This means that anything it makes through home-video or elsewhere will be pure profit. Hopefully it has some life overseas as well to really set it over the edge. I'll be tracking this one.


All Eyez On Me
Result: Flop
Budget: 40 million
Box Office: < 54.8 million

Notes: When I first heard about All Eyez on Me, I knew the intent was that to garner something close to the same returns as Straight Outta Compton did. I didn't really think much else, the actor looked the part, but I didn't really see much momentum for it. Then, the reviews were released. All Eyez on Me was bashed terribly so, but, even still, the film had an opening weekend of more than 26 million. This wasn't Straight Outta Compton numbers by any stretch, but they were solid. The second weekend, however, brought it down a peg, with the film dropping nearly 80% from its first weekend! The drop was enormous and completely changed the trajectory that the film had. It looks like All Eyez on Me will have trouble even reaching 50 million domestically, and these films don't have a lot of appeal overseas (only 20% of Straight Outta Compton's profits came from overseas). This film attaining 50, or even 60 million won't be enough to pay for the production budget, let alone the marketing budget. This film will lose money for its studio.


The Big Bad Batch
Result: Success
Budget: 6 million
Box Office: < 36 million

Notes: Don't know much at all about this film. It's directed by a woman (Ana Lily Amirpour) other-wise known for A Girl Walks Home at Night Alone, which I've stumbled across Netflix a couple of times but never bothered with. The film received mixed reviews and has a known cast of actors like Jim Carrey, Keanu Reeves, and Jason Mamoa. Dubbed as a romantic-horror black-comedy, it hasn't drawn much attention in the United States, but it could have a more substantial theatrical roll-out soon, as it has only premiered in 30 theaters in the area so far. Even still, the film has already made 36 million from other territories, and so, it has already paid for its entire production budget and maybe even all of its marketing budget.


Transformers: The Last Knight
Result: Disappointment
Budget: 217 million
Box Office: < 604 million

Notes: Transformers is a franchise that has experienced consistently diminished returns at the domestic box-office, opting instead to allow overseas totals to do most of the heavy lifting in-terms of profitability. For instance, almost 80% of Age of Extinction's profits came from foreign territories. The domestic returns are particularly low for The Last Knight, however.

Transformers: Age of Extinction posted receipts of one-hundred million less than what Dark of the Moon made domestically, and now, from the looks of it, The Last Knight will post a receipt of about one-hundred million less than Age of Extinction (200 million less than the third film). Considering that domestic receipts bring about the biggest returns, this is a considerable decline. (The film is pacing only a little more than half of what the last film made at the same stage.) Although, The Last Knight has indeed posted a series best for Transformers in China, it has to be remembered that China only gives 25 cents on the dollar to movie studios. It's too soon to say where the latest iteration will land, but no matter what, this will be much less profitable from a theatrical perspective than previous outings.

There are other factors to consider, of course, like merchandise sales and the synergy it will have with the earlier installments, not to mention, of course, what it will make on home-video, as well. But, similar to the Pirates of the Caribbean, the studio might decide they could better allocate their time and resources to something else and return to the Transformers series when there's more demand.

Then again, Pirates is owned by Disney, who has Marvel, Star Wars, and a bunch of other hugely successful properties, meanwhile, Paramount started the year off with a one-hundred million dollar write-off and has had substantial box-office misfires in Baywatch and Ghost in the Shell.

The smarter, more conservative approach might be to opt for smaller budgets on Star Trek and Transformers until they can build some traction.

Furthermore, Bumblebee is too late in-production to go back now, so fans can rejoice in that respect.


The House
Result: Flop
Budget: 40 million
Box Office: < 33.3

Notes: Amy Poehler and Will Farrell might be two of the most recognizable comedy-actors in the game today, but they weren't enough to make The House a successful film at the box office. The film has a considerable budget and likely spent a great deal on marketing as well. These films don't have very much appeal overseas and negative reviews suggest it won't have very strong legs domestically, meaning this film is certain to lose a considerable chunk of change for those involved.


Despicable Me 3
Result: Huge Success
Budget: 80 million
Box Office: < 994

Notes: Despicable Me 3 is only just out of the gate but it's easy to see that this film will be a large success for those involved. Some box office analysts have focused on some of the more negative aspects of the release, for instance, the fact that it opened several million below Despicable Me 2, as well as over 40% below the Minions film. But, the fact is, this film is still a terrific success and makes Despicable Me 4 seem almost inevitable. The fact it has such a conservative production budget (although, technically, the most expensive of the series) and such large appeal overseas means that fans of the series can sleep easy. Also, one has to mention that those who point out its somewhat deflated returns aren't factoring in that it's a holiday weekend and that could "right the ship" the rest of the way for the film.

The Minions film made over a billion bucks, whereas Despicable Me 2 came in shouting distance of the number. I don't think this film will be as successful, but it doesn't have to either.

Update: Showing that overseas totals can make a world of difference, it looks as though Despicable Me 3 might actually exceed expectations, closing in on the one-billion mark.




Baby Driver
Result: Success
Budget: 34 million
Box Office: < 208 million

Notes: Directed by Edgar Wright, this critically acclaimed film has bunked the expectations that many box office analysts had for it. The current trajectory suggests the film should top 100 million worldwide, making for a considerable success. The film will be Edgar Wright's most fiscally successful thus far in his career.

Update - 6/20/17:

- I said Wonder Woman had terrific holds, and my enthusiasm for it could have even still been an understatement. Wonder Woman is, for certain, set to make more domestically than any of the other films in the DC Extended Universe. However, it looks like it will even be challenging the likes of Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 2 on a domestic level. In-fact, some analysts have even suggested that if it maintains its current trajectory, it will make as much as Captain America: Civil War and Iron Man 3 did in the States. As far as worldwide totals are concerned, it won't even touch any of those films, but it looks like it has a real shot at challenging Suicide Squad's 745 million, and even 800 million if overseas holds as well as the United States has. This is the Wonder Woman cinematic universe, featuring DC characters now.

- Alien: Covenant debuted in China. The total was about 30 million or so, which is solid. The low returns from China meant that no matter what the number was, it wouldn't change the overall misfire that Covenant ended up as from a business perspective, but the numbers will still help save face a little bit. Unfortunately, Transformers is next weekend, and Age of Extinction opened with 92 million in that territory, so Alien will likely not be able to do much else from here in its final territory.

- The Mummy's at 293 million. The film under-performed in the United States, but has covered much more ground in other territories. Unfortunately, none of this is enough to cover its budget, because, as said earlier, the receipts where its making most its profits are smaller and with expenses rumored to be as much as 250 million, it won't be able to save itself. Of course, the film will attain profits from on-demand, Blu-Ray and DVD sales, but it simply won't be enough to significant weigh things down in Universal's favor.

*Then 'Star Wars: The Last Jedi' Comes Along and Murders Everyone, The End*

It's a fair statement. Star Wars has proven very successful and stood the test of time, and will likely be the the highest grossing movie worldwide and the highest grossing film from a domestic level.

The Force Awakens made nine-hundred million at the domestic box-office and made over two-billion worldwide. Whereas, Rogue One made around five-hundred million domestically and "only" one billion worldwide. The differences are obvious, comparing Rogue One to The Force Awakens would be like comparing Captain America: The Winter Soldier to The Avengers. Something I am curious to see is how much of a decline The Last Jedi will have from The Force Awakens.

The Force Awakens was mostly well-received, but the "first" film in blockbusters like this tend to always make more, except with some rare circumstances. The Avengers 1 made 1.5 billion, whereas The Avengers: Age of Ultron made 1.4 billion. The kicker is that Avengers 2 made much less than the first film did in the United States, but carried most its weight overseas. I wonder if Star Wars will experience more worldwide following, and diminished returns in the States (which will still do enormously well).