Will "The Amazing Spiderman" Flop?

Tools    





We've gone on holiday by mistake
I think it will, perhaps not a total flop, but a flop in the way that Superman Returns was when it came up against XMen 3.

I personally feel that it's WAY too soon to be doing another Spidey reboot, therefore I will not be going to see it. I mean 5 years is just silly. What will they do at the end of this series? wait 5 years and reboot it all again?

It reminds me of recent Hulk movies, total switch of cast in between films.

What Gross total would make this flick a flop? $4-500 million or less?

For comparison,

SpiderMan 1, budget $140m, World Takings $821m, Rotten Tomatoes 89%

Spiderman 2, budget $200m, World Takings $783m, RT 93%

Spiderman 3, budget $258m, World Takings $890m, RT 63%

The Amazing Spiderman, budget $220m, Takings ???, Prelimenary RT 78% (Will probably drop).

Quite surprising to see the best of the series Spiderman 2 with the lowest Gross. Must have been up against a Star Wars Prequel or summat.

How do you guys think Spidey will perform?



I think it'll be significantly lower than the previous films domestically, and moderately less worldwide. I don't think it has any chance of being a worldwide "flop," but anything less than $400-450 million would probably be a big disappointment.



We've gone on holiday by mistake
I think it'll be significantly lower than the previous films domestically, and moderately less worldwide. I don't think it has any chance of being a worldwide "flop," but anything less than $400-450 million would probably be a big disappointment.
Are you going to see it?

Usually when a new Comic Book movie comes out I'm fairly motivated to go and see it, but I just feel no desire whatsoever to go and see this. Even if I start reading amazing reviews (which I wont) I will be in no rush to see.

Probably due to anger at what I see as a cheap marketing ploy of rebooting too soon.



I said this in the other thread.

It's just too soon after the Raimi's Spider Man trilogy. Filmmakers haven't learned from Hulk.
Ok the Hulk reboot was also close after the awful first one, and it did a touch better Box-Office wise, it's also a better movie, but it still wasn't revved about by those that saw it and still didn't do as well as the filmmakers hoped.

Ok this Spider movie another story arc in comparison to Raimi's Webslinger... but I think for audiences, it's just too soon.
I know that I for one won't be seeing it until it's out on rental.

The Amazing Spider Man has also had significantly less marketing in Britain than pretty much any movie I know of so far, with exception to John Carter.
Carter had little to no marketing in Britain apart from a couple of TV Spots three days before release, then after it was released there was nothing at all... and look how that did.


The other thing is novelty value and the special effects side of things... there's only so much you can do when following Spider Man while he's swinging through the streets... and we've already seen it all before in Raimi's movies...

... and this Spider Man has to use a poxy braclet to shoot webs too.

Plus there's a scene in the trailer that looks like a carbon copy of Raimi's first movie: Hanging off a bridge by his web and holding a vehical at the same time.

There's too many Cons stacked up against only a handful of Pros.
Will it be a flop? Not a massive one, there'll be die-hard Spidey fans seeing it, but it'll certainly flop.



I think this'll make it's money and probably enough to persuade them to try their luck with a sequel, but no, I don't think this is going to hit $600m worldwide.
__________________
5-time MoFo Award winner.



I guess it could flop. Especially if 300 to 400 million is considered a flop. It will help if its good though, which it sort of looks like it may be. Not sure how many of you are fans of the old comics but Spidey used to have quite a few different story lines going at any one time in the Marvel universe, so calling this a re-boot may be a mistake. It appears they are doing his origin again, which is definitely a big waste of time but at least they are letting him make his own webbing and shooters this time around. I don't know, looks OK to me, we'll see.
__________________
We are both the source of the problem and the solution, yet we do not see ourselves in this light...



Are you going to see it?

Usually when a new Comic Book movie comes out I'm fairly motivated to go and see it, but I just feel no desire whatsoever to go and see this. Even if I start reading amazing reviews (which I wont) I will be in no rush to see.

Probably due to anger at what I see as a cheap marketing ploy of rebooting too soon.
Except for being angry at them for the idea of rebooting, these are pretty much exactly my thoughts. Looks fine, would see it if I were desperate, but given that I tend to see fewer films in theaters these days, it's just not a big enough deal for me to bother.



will.15's Avatar
Semper Fooey
I haven't been paying any attention at all. These superhero movies are boring me.

Is the villain still the Lizard? Big giant yawn.

If it was Kraven the Hunter, I mught have actually gone out to see it.

And Sally Fields as Aunt May????
__________________
It reminds me of a toilet paper on the trees
- Paula



I'm a lifelong Spider-Man fanboy, so I'll be there at midnight when it opens. I don't think it'll be a huge hit, but a flop? Nah.
__________________
"Puns are the highest form of literature." -Alfred Hitchcock



28 days...6 hours...42 minutes...12 seconds
I think after Spider-Man 3, people are willing to see change.
__________________
"A laugh can be a very powerful thing. Why, sometimes in life, it's the only weapon we have."

Suspect's Reviews



Quite surprising to see the best of the series Spiderman 2 with the lowest Gross. Must have been up against a Star Wars Prequel or summat.
Spiderman 2 came out in 2004. Episode III came out the year after.

I think it will do round about the 500-750 Million mark. Maybe because the reboot was too soon and they should have let time by before throwing themselves into another Spidy series.



Keep on Rockin in the Free World
I guess it could flop. Especially if 300 to 400 million is considered a flop.
thats not a flop though.
__________________
"The greatest danger for most of us is not that our aim is too high and we miss it, but that it is too low and we reach it." - Michelangelo.



thats not a flop though.
Actually, at $220 million budget (that's the number I've heard anyway), when factoring in at least another $200 million for marketing, $300-400 million would be a flop. Look at John Carter. It took in $280 million worldwide with a $250 million dollar budget and Disney took a loss of $200 million. A film as big as Spider-man needs to take in at least $500 million to really make a profit.

I have no idea how it will perform.
__________________



will.15's Avatar
Semper Fooey
Actually, at $220 million budget (that's the number I've heard anyway), when factoring in at least another $200 million for marketing, $300-400 million would be a flop. Look at John Carter. It took in $280 million worldwide with a $250 million dollar budget and Disney took a loss of $200 million. A film as big as Spider-man needs to take in at least $500 million to really make a profit.

I have no idea how it will perform.
The standby is a movie has to gross two and a half times cost to break even, but you throw that out when the budget gets that high because it won't cost 200 million for marketing. The marketing costs shouldn't be any higher than an average studio release, and could even be less because it is a well known property and there will probably be advertising tie-ins. The problem is they have to split revenue with exhibitors, so, yeah, half a mill is probably around the profit point, which is still less than two and a half times cost, but the sticker is splitting revenue, not marketing costs.

And even if it grosses a little less than that it will do very well on DVD.



Keep on Rockin in the Free World
A film as big as Spider-man needs to take in at least $500 million to really make a profit.
That is factually incorrect. A property like Spiderman has toys and apparel tie-ins that make it profitable regardless what the box office does. Then add the DVD $$ along with the HBO rights and on and on.



Its got a 79% on Rotten Tomatoes. So it looks to be an improvement from Spiderman 3.

I am a huge Spiderman fan. He is my lifelong favorite superhero. That being said, I am not that excited for this movie. Probably because I hate the idea of a Spiderman movie without Tobey McGuire. But I will watch it for sure.

Its probably because I watched the Avengers. That is a tough act to follow for any super hero movie.

I see this film taking in 800 million bucks. C'om its spideman.
__________________
Going 18600 miles per second.



That is factually incorrect. A property like Spiderman has toys and apparel tie-ins that make it profitable regardless what the box office does. Then add the DVD $$ along with the HBO rights and on and on.
Sorry, but most of that is completely untrue. Toys/tie-ins are profits for the companies that produce them and the company that owns the character rights. No one takes into account DVD and broadcast rights when looking at theatrical release. Again, look at John Carter. Disney announced a $200 million loss less than a month into its theatrical run.



will.15's Avatar
Semper Fooey
But it wasn't because of marketing costs, it had to do with the movie only made a little more than its cost and they split that revenue with theaters. They made about 125 million from gross receipts and must have been claiming 100 mill on marketing costs. Which I suspect is inflated. But they lost money, sure.

At the end of the day, all of the money a movie makes determines if it is profitable, but on the studio's books few movies make a profit. They count DVD sales as part of revenue they expect to make when budgeting.

And sure they make money on licensing if it is directly tied in with the movie being released. And a lot of the Spiderman licensing will be.



28 days...6 hours...42 minutes...12 seconds
It hard to tell with Toys. George Lucas made more money from the toys than anything else. Since then, studios have been careful on what they get shares of.



The Batman, Superman and Spiderman franchises have racked in so much money over the years, maybe the standards of flopping are even higher for TASM. Especially considering how much The Avengers made.

Less than $500 would have to be a flop considering it's potential as a big time money maker. Even MIB 3 has made about $600m. I think ASM makes a little more than that, falling between $600m-700m.

I can't help but wonder if it will flop though. It gets the big 4th of July week opening, but it won't even have two weeks to itself until the dark knight rises. Will TASM's opening create a lot of buzz, or will everyone start looking ahead to Batman? Plus, look at all the money Ted just drew in. Maybe that's a surprise competitor.