2008 Box Office Prediction Quiz

Aye, it'll definitely be way past $200 million by the end of its second weekend, but an $150 million opening weekend is probably out of reach, seeing as how it's opening on a Thursday. Unless you mean that it'll take in $150 million including Thursday, in which case I'd say that's a pretty good guess, though maybe just a little low.

I think I've hesitated just slightly on its super-duper blockbuster prospects simply because I've sensed less excitement in response to the trailer in theaters than I would have expected. I think the trailer is just a shade underwhelming. Of course, it's going to bring out a lot of people that haven't been to the theaters in quite awhile, but the reactions I've seen just has me wondering if maybe younger moviegoers aren't just a little more captivated by the superhero fare about to bombard them.

Anyway, that's just the pseudo-logic behind my slightly-less optimistic guess on the film's prospects. Could be nothing, but there you have it.

By the by, the reaction to the trailers for The Dark Knight has been remarkable for months now, from people yelling gasping or yelling "YES!" when they realize what it is, to cheering and clapping when its over. I figured people were excited, but I've been really surprised by the response. I believe I ranked it 5th in my PM to 7thson, which I already regret.

I think Dark Knight & Skull are both going to make much $$$$$ Certainly Skull will do great, but I sense D.K. will susprise. I certainly hope so.

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I originally said that I wasn't going to post a list, but the day of the cutoff, I went ahead and did some calculations, but my daughter ended up on the computer all night (until 1:30 AM) working on an English paper while IMing her writing partner. By the time she got off, I was too tired to post.

I did put Iron Man at $290 million. Indy was at 350, Wall-E, 321, Dark Knight, 320 and Hancock, 300.

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I have a feeling that Dark Knight will gross more than 320 worldwide, it will definitely exceed Batman Begins, and im even predicting in light of Ledger's death and the hype surrounding the film its going to be up there with 'Lord-of-the-rings-slash-titanic-pirates-of-the-caribbean' esque figures. Thats just my view.

And its a shame Speed Racer flopped at the box office this week, first crash of the summer movies!

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The Dark Knight will certainly gross more than 320 worldwide, but those are domestic estimates by me. One other thing you have to remember is that Titanic is miles beyond all other films for domestic gross, and it accomplished it slowly and steadily. It stayed near the top of the box office for many, many weeks, and that just doesn't seem to happen anymore. It grossed more than $20 million each of its first 14 weeks and it played at theatres for nine months.

Yeh thats true.

Well, we're a month and a half into the summer, and so far, it's been pretty lackluster compared to most estimates.

Iron Man is still cruising, and should top $300 million with room to spare. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull opened very big, but not huge, and hasn't had the extra staying power most of us had hoped for. It's been dropping off around 50% week-to-week, pulling in just under $23 million this past weekend. It stands at $253 million domestically, and might struggle to cross the $300 million mark.

The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian has been a big disappointment, opening about the same as the first film in the series. This is bad news, as sequels tend to open better, because its more of a known quantity, and people who didn't see the first in theaters may have rented it -- especially in regards to films like these. It's dropped off steadily and sits at around $126 million domestically. $150 million might be a stretch before all's said and done. Not a failure by any means, but definitely a step backward. Books 3 and 4 -- easily the most cinematic of the entire series -- couldn't come at a better time.

It's probably unlikely that The Incredible Hulk, which opens on Friday, will factor into this prediction quiz, as it'll have a hard time cracking the top five or producing a particularly stellar opening. But early word-of-mouth is very good, and it could open about as well as the first Hulk, which shocked many prognosticators with an opening north of $60 million, before dropping precipitously.

The only relevant release this week is The Happening, which was my choice for highest-grossing R-rated film in this quiz. I'm not sure if I'd make the same choice now (I think Wanted is a wild card and could really go either way), but it should enjoy a solid opening, and I expect word-of-mouth will be better than the reviews, which will probably be mixed at best.

Anyone else surprised by any of this? IE: Iron Man's staying power, Indy's pedestrian drops, or Caspian's mediocre performance?

I think Iron Man, deservedly, will be in the top and the biggest contenders to undseat it will either be Kung Fu Panda, Wall-E and of course Dark Knight.

Indiana Jones I think will still be the top money maker, with Hancock coming in second.

Of course Dark Knight, Wall-E will all cross the 250 million mark. Iron Man is already top ten and will stay there.

Narnia, like yoda said disappointed. Kung-Fu Panda will have some staying power.

I think Tropic Thunder will be the big surprise and round out the last spot.

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Suspect's Reviews

I'm predicting another disappointment, critically and commercially, from M. Night. I think Pineapple Express will clean-up in the dog days of August and be the top-grossing R-rated flick of the summer.

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I see Pineapple being second fiddle to Tropic Thunder still.

I think Wanted looks like it could really get some legs under it for the summer. I've seen a million promos for it lately, and unlike a lot of other films, the more I've seen of this one, the more I'm actually looking forward to seeing it. I'll see pretty much any Angelina Jolie action movie, and the "Fight Club" / "Matrix" feel of the trailers has piqued my interest. Plus I think Hancock is going to be a monster-sized bomb, giving Wanted plenty of breathing room before TDK comes out. I would not be surprised at all to see Wanted top $150m or more when all is said and done; even $200m isn't completely out of the picture. It might just end up being the big surprise of the summer.

Well, as I posted in another thread, The Happening grossed $13 million on Friday. Still, it figures to have pretty bad legs, so it might struggle to reach even $70 million if it falls off too quickly, which means I'll probably end up missing on my top grossing R-rated film guess, unless all the rest disappoint significantly.

Hancock will not bomb....

Will Smith

Superhero

July Opening....

Big Bucks My Friend.

Gotta agree there; Hancock may not be a smash, and it may drop off quickly, but the chances of it completely bombing are almost nil.

Well, I wouldn't say that Hancock is going be a bomb on the level of Speed Racer perhaps, but the budget for the movie was over $150 million, and I don't see it coming close to recouping that number - at least, not in domestic B.O. Odd as it sounds, I think one of the best indicators for how it may do will be how The Happening does this weekend, in its second week. The Happening is the only film coming out this summer that seems to have WORSE word-of-mouth than Hancock (maybe The Love Guru as well); I wouldn't be surprised if Hancock sees a similar Week 1 to Week 2 drop-off percentage as The Happening; for the record, I'm predicting that The Happening sees a horrific 60%+ drop-off this weekend; it won't clear more than $12m at best. Hancock may do decently well its opening weekend, perhaps (although I really don't see it coming close breaking $100m, even though it's got a 5 day opening weekend - $70m for the 5-day period might be a best-case scenario), but it could see a huge drop-off after that if its as bad as the early reviewers are saying it is.

Oh, and now that we've gotten our first glimpse at how The Happening is going to do at the B.O., I think there's no question remaining - Wanted has to be the front-runner for biggest R-rated movie of the summer now. Word-of-mouth is good and has been getting better in recent weeks, it's got strong marquee value in the cast (Angelina Jolie especially), and the trailers look great; I don't see anything else that's going to catch it, unless Sex and the City has some sort of crazy staying power - but that's really a long shot.

Regardless of the final Box Office numbers doesn't this year seem quite dissappointing so far? Only great film I have seen is Iron Man.

We'll have to wait and see. I see Hancock breaking 200M easily.

I could agree with that - but then, the only movies I was really looking forward to in the early part of the summer were Iron Man, Indy 4 and to a lesser degree, Hulk. Iron Man was fantastic, Indy 4 was a COLOSSAL disappointment, and Hulk was decent, but not great. Really, though, we're just getting into the meat of the summer next week - Wanted and Wall-E are both in my top 5 "must see" movies this summer, and The Dark Knight is still a few weeks away; all three of those movies could prove to be amazingly good, judging from their trailers.

Now, if we're still as disappointed come August, there's a problem - but at the moment, it's still too early to worry yet.