What movie do you think will be the best picture winner for 2016?

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Although not every movie has came out yet, obviously, summer barely started. But the list of movies for this year is out already so do you think a specific movie will win or at least be nominated for best picture in the Oscars next year? Maybe you'll base it on movies released later in the year that are seen as "oscar-bait", or maybe by their hype? Or maybe you'll base it on the acting talent the film has and by what director or writer is making it. Will it be animated? Will it be a historical drama? Or something totally different? What do you think?



No way to know, of course, but I very seriously doubt any major Oscar contenders for Best Picture have been released yet in this first half of 2016.

Movies by big name directors with brand name stars can get lousy reviews and fizzle, while small films not on the radar can find their way to Oscar nominations and wins. Just given their pedigree and casts, unless they turn out to be unmitigated disasters one would have to assume that Martin Scorsese's Silence and Ang Lee's Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk will be in contention for some of the biggest Academy Awards. Given their praise on the film festival circuit Jeff Nichols' Loving and Nat Parker's Birth of a Nation will likely be in the mix, as well. Beyond those four, which aren't locks but certainly logical choices this early in the year, it could be any number of other films that will fill out the other high-profile noms.

Biopics usually do well at Oscar time, so Clint Eastwood's Sully with Tom Hanks as the heroic airline pilot Chesley Sullenberger, Pablo Larraín's Jackie with Natalie Portman as Jacqueline Kennedy in the first few days after JFK's assassination, and John Lee Hancock's The Founder with Michael Keaton as McDonald's magnate Ray Kroc all seem to be on track.....before being seen, anyway. If it is at all decent, Oscar winning director Warren Beatty's first film in eighteen years, Rules Don't Apply, could well be in the mix.

Because of their casts, directors, and subject matters any of these could very easily be serious Oscar contenders: A United Kingdom, La La Land, The Light Between Oceans, Denial, Queen of Katwe, Arrival, Collateral Beauty, Manchester by the Sea, and Desierto. But just simple math coupled with the improbability of all nine of those living up to their full potential, they probably won't ALL be Oscar nominees.

There will no doubt be surprises, though looking at the slate of Action, Sci-Fi, and Horror movies it's difficult to imagine there being a genre film like Mad Max: Fury Road making waves again, at the 2017 Oscars.


Time will tell. Obviously. Most years even by December it's not really all that clear which titles are going to have the momentum to carry them all the way through the long awards season. Here in June, it's just silly. But I speculated a bit for you, just the same.
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Please hold your applause till after the me.
Based on the academys usual checklist, nothing looks like a winner yet. But I'm looking forward to Scorseses Silence, and that looks like their kind of movie.

But I in my opinion, I think that Captain America Civil War should be a contender, and that's not just the comic book fan in me talking, from a critical stand point, it's a genuinely excellent film. Great storytelling, development, pacing, and superb action, it's great.



I have to return some videotapes...
I have a feeling that Manchester will be nominated and probably Silence as well.
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The only movie I know of that was released right after the Oscars, had to wait a whole year to get nominated, did, and swept the awards was "Silence Of The Lambs". The likelihood of that happening again is like the next Triple Crown in horse racing.