Ali: Knockout or Punched Out?

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There is NO mark of success...no level. It's all relative to the budget and expectation. Pearl Harbor was a disapointment...it grossed over $190 million domestically. $58 million is pretty bad --- it's a disapointment. But not a huge one...not a bomb. A bomb is Final Fantasy walking away with $23 million. There are lots of films which would look at $23 million as a solid gross, though.



I ain't gettin' in no fryer!
I'd say if you make back at least half of your total spendings on a movie you might walk away somewhat even.

Of course, a lot more movies are proving themselves on video since theatre prices can be hefty at times.
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"I was walking down the street with my friend and he said, "I hear music", as if there is any other way you can take it in. You're not special, that's how I receive it too. I tried to taste it but it did not work." - Mitch Hedberg



Well we're not talking about how good a movie is, just what it makes at the box office. This is a box office thread so if we want to predict 'em we need a standard. If I wanna predict what Hart's War will make I can look at the scale and pick one.

That's what I mean about it not being so hard to make $100MM these days. look at Pearl Harbor & Phantom Menace. Huge blockbusters that sucked. It's about how well you promote a movie that determines opening weekend.

What you're talking about Twitty is Predict the Profit, not box office. For that we need something like (Total - CostToMake = Profit) or (Total/CostToMake = ROI) or even (Total/NumberOfScreen - CostToMake/NumberOfScreens = ProfitPerScreen)

What I'm talking about is a simple scale that people can look at and say, hmm..I think Hart's War will do about average, what's an average movie make? Ok, I'll predict 60 - 69. Something like that. Just something for people to look at to help them base a prediction on.



I see what you're saying, Sun...but I don't know if it'll work. There's more to it than that. Pearl Harbor, in terms of worldwide box office, has made a significant profit, I believe (don't quote me on that, though; I'm not positive of it). Expectation is a big part of it.

I don't think there's some formula or scale you can look at to say that this flick did "well" or "poorly." You'd need a different scale for each movie. If I come up with something, I'll let you know, but I think movies need to be taken, usually, on a case-by-case basis. Don't ever forget: Battlefield Earth, I believe, actually turned a profit thanks to DVD and VHS rentals and sales.

As for a formula to try to gauge how well a film will do. That's just tough stuff without advanced surveys...the only thing such a system would be good for is the non-eventful happenings, like Tomb Raider taking in almost $150 million domestically. It wouldn't be likely to pick up on the things that people have trouble predicting now, like The Fast and Furious topping $40 million its first weekend, or Final Fantasy failing at the level that it did.



mightymose's Avatar
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I agree with T on this one... judging the success a movie is practically impossible. Budget and expectations are probably two of the bigger variables in the equation, but I also think you need to look at the per screen average. I live in a moderate sized town and am fortunate to see pretty much everything that comes out, but there's always a couple of times each year that a solid movie only gets limited release (Chicago, NY, LA) and therefore could be deemed a failure b/c it didn't take in that much.

I think it would certainly be possible to do a comparison to certain averages to see how a certain film compares historically, but I don't think there's any way you can judge whether or not a movie was a success by the gross.