So, what do you guys think will be the biggest movie this year? Will "Shrek" hold on? Will LOTR pass it up? Harry Potter? I wrote a quick piece on this:
http://www.movieforums.com/boxoffice/index.html?id=5
Reproduced here:
So, let's hear your predictions! Bragging rights are up for grabs.
http://www.movieforums.com/boxoffice/index.html?id=5
Reproduced here:
This is gonna be a battle for the ages, ladies and gentlemen. Shrek's robut $266 million domestic (U.S.) gross is quite formidable, and even surpasses last year's biggest hit, "Dr. Suess' How the Grinch Stole Christmas," which finished with around $6 million less.
However, "Shrek" will be put to the ultimate test before the year is out, with "Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone" coming out on November 16th, and "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring" making it's debut on December 19th. Both movies are the first in what both promise will be a series of movies, and as such, they each carry more excitement with them than most of their later installments are likely to.
So, can Harry/Tolkien topple the green ogre? Some analysts are predicting a massive toll of anywhere from $300-500 million for "Potter" -- however, these are likely exaggerations. "LOTR" is guaranteed roughly $150 million, but to truly break through and make the $250-300 million necessary to match the hype that it's received, the movie will need to heavily appeal to non-Tolkien fans.
My personal predictions: "Harry Potter" narrowly surpasses "Shrek," but ends up a bit under $300 million domestically. "LOTR," I believe, will finish with something near $250 million, giving it either a third/second place finish, in a year filled with blockbusters.
However, "Shrek" will be put to the ultimate test before the year is out, with "Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone" coming out on November 16th, and "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring" making it's debut on December 19th. Both movies are the first in what both promise will be a series of movies, and as such, they each carry more excitement with them than most of their later installments are likely to.
So, can Harry/Tolkien topple the green ogre? Some analysts are predicting a massive toll of anywhere from $300-500 million for "Potter" -- however, these are likely exaggerations. "LOTR" is guaranteed roughly $150 million, but to truly break through and make the $250-300 million necessary to match the hype that it's received, the movie will need to heavily appeal to non-Tolkien fans.
My personal predictions: "Harry Potter" narrowly surpasses "Shrek," but ends up a bit under $300 million domestically. "LOTR," I believe, will finish with something near $250 million, giving it either a third/second place finish, in a year filled with blockbusters.