Early Awards Predictions

Tools    





National Board of Review awardees have been announced:

The Irishman is Best Picture
Adam Sandler is Best Actor
Renee Zellweger is Best Actress
Brad Pitt is Best Supporting Actor
Kathy Bates is Best Supporting Actress

https://ew.com/awards/2019/12/03/201...ers-announced/
I forgot to add that Quentin Tarantino was named Best Director
__________________
“Let me tell you something you already know. The world ain't all sunshine and rainbows. It's a very mean and nasty place and I don't care how tough you are, it will beat you to your knees and keep you there permanently if you let it. You, me, or nobody is gonna hit as hard as life. But it ain't about how hard ya hit. It's about how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward. How much you can take and keep moving forward. That's how winning is done!” ~ Rocky Balboa



National Board of Review awardees have been announced:

The Irishman is Best Picture
Quentin Tarantino is Best Director
Adam Sandler is Best Actor
Renee Zellweger is Best Actress
Brad Pitt is Best Supporting Actor
Kathy Bates is Best Supporting Actress
The Safdie Brothers and Ronald Bronstein (Uncut Gems) are Best Original Screenplay
Steven Zaillian (The Irishman) is Best Adapted Screenplay
Parasite is Best Foreign Language Film
Maiden is Best Documentary
How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World is Best Animated Feature
Knives Out is Best Ensemble
Paul Walter Hauser is Best Breakthough Actor
Melina Matsoukas (Queen & Slim) is Best Directorial Debut


https://ew.com/awards/2019/12/03/201...ers-announced/
Richard Jewell made a great showing: Kathy Bates winning Best Supporting Actress and Paul Walter Hauser being recognized as Best Breakthrough Performance.

Kathy Bates will certainly be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the Globes and Oscars. Hauser could get nominated for the Globes but will most likely be snubbed at the Oscars.



I thought Paul Walter Hauser's breakthrough was I, Tonya. His Shawn Eckhardt was one of the best things about that flick. He was strong in BlackKklansman, too.
__________________
"Film is a disease. When it infects your bloodstream it takes over as the number one hormone. It bosses the enzymes, directs the pineal gland, plays Iago to your psyche. As with heroin, the antidote to Film is more Film." - Frank Capra



Welcome to the human race...
I'm guessing it's because Richard Jewell shows he's got more range than just playing fat goofy idiots like he does in those particular films (albeit very well in the case of I, Tonya and even then he's obviously overshadowed by Robbie and Janney).
__________________
I really just want you all angry and confused the whole time.
Iro's Top 100 Movies v3.0



Critics Choice Awards nominations were announced today:

https://variety.com/2019/film/awards...ns-1203428878/

BEST PICTURE
“1917”
“Ford v Ferrari”
“The Irishman”
“Jojo Rabbit”
“Joker”
“Little Women”
“Marriage Story”
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
“Parasite”
“Uncut Gems”

BEST ACTOR
Antonio Banderas – “Pain and Glory”
Robert De Niro – “The Irishman”
Leonardo DiCaprio – “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Adam Driver – “Marriage Story”
Eddie Murphy – “Dolemite Is My Name”
Joaquin Phoenix – “Joker”
Adam Sandler – “Uncut Gems”

BEST ACTRESS
Awkwafina – “The Farewell”
Cynthia Erivo – “Harriet”
Scarlett Johansson – “Marriage Story”
Lupita Nyong’o – Us
Saoirse Ronan – “Little Women”
Charlize Theron – “Bombshell”
Renée Zellweger – “Judy”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Willem Dafoe – “The Lighthouse”
Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”
Anthony Hopkins – “The Two Popes”
Al Pacino – “The Irishman”
Joe Pesci – “The Irishman”
Brad Pitt – “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Laura Dern – “Marriage Story”
Scarlett Johansson – “Jojo Rabbit”
Jennifer Lopez – “Hustlers”
Florence Pugh – “Little Women”
Margot Robbie – “Bombshell”
Zhao Shuzhen – “The Farewell”

BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS
Julia Butters – “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Roman Griffin Davis – “Jojo Rabbit”
Noah Jupe – “Honey Boy”
Thomasin McKenzie – “Jojo Rabbit”
Shahadi Wright Joseph – “Us”
Archie Yates – “Jojo Rabbit”

BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE
“Bombshell”
“The Irishman”
“Knives Out”
“Little Women”
“Marriage Story”
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
“Parasite”

BEST DIRECTOR
Noah Baumbach – “Marriage Story”
Greta Gerwig – “Little Women”
Bong Joon Ho – “Parasite”
Sam Mendes – “1917”
Josh Safdie and Benny Safdie – “Uncut Gems”
Martin Scorsese – “The Irishman”
Quentin Tarantino – “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Noah Baumbach – “Marriage Story”
Rian Johnson – “Knives Out”
Bong Joon Ho and Han Jin Won – “Parasite”
Quentin Tarantino – “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Lulu Wang – “The Farewell”

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Greta Gerwig – “Little Women”
Noah Harpster and Micah Fitzerman-Blue – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”
Anthony McCarten – “The Two Popes”
Todd Phillips & Scott Silver – “Joker”
Taika Waititi – “Jojo Rabbit”
Steven Zaillian – “The Irishman”

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Jarin Blaschke – “The Lighthouse”
Roger Deakins – “1917”
Phedon Papamichael – “Ford v Ferrari”
Rodrigo Prieto – “The Irishman”
Robert Richardson – “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Lawrence Sher – “Joker”

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Mark Friedberg, Kris Moran – “Joker”
Dennis Gassner, Lee Sandales – “1917”
Jess Gonchor, Claire Kaufman – “Little Women”
Lee Ha Jun – “Parasite”
Barbara Ling, Nancy Haigh – “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Bob Shaw, Regina Graves – “The Irishman”
Donal Woods, Gina Cromwell – “Downton Abbey”

BEST EDITING
Ronald Bronstein, Benny Safdie – “Uncut Gems”
Andrew Buckland, Michael McCusker – “Ford v Ferrari”
Yang Jinmo – “Parasite”
Fred Raskin – “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Thelma Schoonmaker – “The Irishman”
Lee Smith – “1917”

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Ruth E. Carter – “Dolemite Is My Name”
Julian Day – “Rocketman”
Jacqueline Durran – “Little Women”
Arianne Phillips – “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Sandy Powell, Christopher Peterson – “The Irishman”
Anna Robbins – “Downton Abbey”

BEST HAIR AND MAKEUP
“Bombshell”
“Dolemite Is My Name”
“The Irishman”
“Joker”
“Judy”
“Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood”
“Rocketman”

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
“1917”
“Ad Astra”
“The Aeronauts”
“Avengers: Endgame”
“Ford v Ferrari”
“The Irishman”
“The Lion King”

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
“Abominable”
“Frozen II”
“How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World”
“I Lost My Body”
“Missing Link”
“Toy Story 4”

BEST ACTION MOVIE
“1917”
“Avengers: Endgame”
“Ford v Ferrari”
“John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum”
“Spider-Man: Far From Home”

BEST COMEDY
“Booksmart”
“Dolemite Is My Name”
“The Farewell”
“Jojo Rabbit”
“Knives Out”

BEST SCI-FI OR HORROR MOVIE
“Ad Astra”
“Avengers: Endgame”
“Midsommar”
“Us”

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
“Atlantics”
“Les Misérables”
“Pain and Glory”
“Parasite”
“Portrait of a Lady on Fire”

BEST SONG
“Glasgow (No Place Like Home)” – “Wild Rose”
“(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” – “Rocketman”
“I’m Standing With You” – “Breakthrough”
“Into the Unknown” – “Frozen II”
“Speechless” – “Aladdin”
“Spirit” – “The Lion King”
“Stand Up” – “Harriet”

BEST SCORE
Michael Abels – “Us”
Alexandre Desplat – “Little Women”
Hildur Guðnadóttir – “Joker”
Randy Newman – “Marriage Story”
Thomas Newman – “1917”
Robbie Robertson – “The Irishman”



In normal circumstance I think at this stage anyway there are some quite easy predictions, Tarantino taking best director/picture, Phoenix in Joker best actor, Johansson in Marriage story for best actress, all people who would probably be considered "due" with films that seem well aimed for awards, maybe Driver might be a good challenge for Marriage story as well on the same lines.

Its moreso I'd say the political climate that makes things harder to predict.



In normal circumstance I think at this stage anyway there are some quite easy predictions, Tarantino taking best director/picture, Phoenix in Joker best actor, Johansson in Marriage story for best actress, all people who would probably be considered "due" with films that seem well aimed for awards, maybe Driver might be a good challenge for Marriage story as well on the same lines.

Its moreso I'd say the political climate that makes things harder to predict.

I think Driver is going to win for Marriage Story, Scarjo might have issues. Laura Dern is going to be a huge contender for supporting actress and I don't know if Marriage Story is going to get three acting Oscars.


I think the "due" Oscars are going to go with Brad Pitt and Quentin Tarantino



Golden Globe nominations have been announced (I'm only listing the film nominations)

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/...125959132.html

Best Motion Picture – Drama
The Irishman
Joker
The Two Popes
Marriage Story
1917


Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Knives Out
Dolemite Is My Name
Jojo Rabbit
Rocketman


Best Motion Picture – Foreign Language
The Farewell
Pain and Glory
Parasite
Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Les Misérables

Best Director – Motion Picture
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Bong Joon-ho, Parasite
Sam Mendes, 1917
Todd Phillips, Joker

Best Screenplay – Motion Picture
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
Anthony McCarten, The Two Popes
Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won, Parasite
Steven Zaillian, The Irishman

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama
Renée Zellweger, Judy
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
Adam Driver, Marriage Story

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Awkwafina, The Farewell
Beanie Feldstein, Booksmart
Ana de Armas, Knives Out
Emma Thompson, Late Night
Cate Blanchett, Where’d You Go, Bernadette?

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name
Daniel Craig, Knives Out
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Roman Griffin Davis, Jojo Rabbit

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
Annette Bening, The Report

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes

Best Motion Picture – Animated
Frozen 2
Toy Story 4
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
Missing Link
The Lion King


Best Original Score – Motion Picture
Thomas Newman, 1917
Hildur Guonadottir, Joker
Randy Newman, Marriage Story
Alexandre Desplat, Little Women
Daniel Pemberton, Motherless Brooklyn

Best Original Song – Motion Picture
“(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again,” Rocketman
“Spirit,” The Lion King
“Into the Unknown,” Frozen 2
“Stand Up,” Harriet
“Beautiful Ghosts,” Cats



Major snubs I've noticed at the Globes this year:

Robert Deniro, Willem Dafoe, Robert Pattinson, Adam Sandler.



The SAG Award nominations were announced today:

Cast in a Motion Picture
“Bombshell”
“The Irishman”
“Jojo Rabbit”
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
“Parasite”

Male Actor in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture
Christian Bale, “Ford v Ferrari”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Adam Driver, “Marriage Story”
Taron Egerton, “Rocketman”
Joaquin Phoenix, “Joker”

Female Actor in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture
Cynthia Erivo, “Harriet”
Scarlett Johansson, “Marriage Story”
Lupita Nyong’o, “Us”
Charlize Theron, “Bombshell”
Renee Zellweger, “Judy”

Male Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Tom Hanks, “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”
Al Pacino, “The Irishman”
Brad Pitt, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Joe Pesci, “The Irishman”
Jamie Foxx, “Just Mercy”

Female Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Laura Dern, “Marriage Story”
Scarlett Johansson, “Jojo Rabbit”
Nicole Kidman, “Bombshell”
Jennifer Lopez, “Hustlers”
Margot Robbie, “Bombshell”

Ensemble in a Drama Series
“Big Little Lies”
“The Crown”
“Game of Thrones”
“The Handmaid’s Tale”
“Stranger Things”

Male Actor in a Drama Series
Sterling K. Brown, “This Is Us”
Steve Carell, “The Morning Show”
Billy Crudup, “The Morning Show”
David Harbour, “Stranger Things”
Peter Dinklage, “Game of Thrones”

Female Actor in a Drama Series
Jennifer Aniston, “The Morning Show”
Helena Bonham Carter, “The Crown”
Olivia Colman, “The Crown
Jodie Comer, “Killing Eve”
Elisabeth Moss, “The Handmaid’s Tale”

Ensemble in a Comedy Series
“Barry”
“Fleabag”
“The Kominsky Method”
“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
“Schitt’s Creek”

Male Actor in a Comedy Series
Alan Arkin, “The Kominsky Method”
Michael Douglas, “The Kominsky Method”
Bill Hader, “Barry”
Andrew Scott, “Fleabag”
Tony Shalhoub, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”

Female Actor in a Comedy Series
Alex Borstein, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Christina Applegate, “Dead to Me”
Rachel Brosnahan, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Catherine O’Hara, “Schitt’s Creek”
Phoebe Waller-Bridge, “Fleabag”

Male Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series
Jharrel Jerome, “When They See Us”
Jared Harris, “Chernobyl”
Mahershala Ali, “True Detective”
Russell Crowe, “The Loudest Voice”
Sam Rockwell, “Fosse/Verdon”

Female Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series
Patricia Arquette, “The Act”
Toni Collette, “Unbelievable”
Joey King, “The Act”
Emily Watson, “Chernobyl”
Michelle Williams, “Fosse/Verdon”

Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
“Avengers: Endgame”
“Ford v Ferrari”
“The Irishman”
“Joker”
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”

Stunt Ensemble in a Comedy or Drama Series
“Game of Thrones”
“GLOW”
“Stranger Things”
“The Walking Dead”
“Watchmen”



Since last visiting this thread, I have seen Joker, Marriage Story, and Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood. I'm willing to go out on a limb and say that Joaquin Phoenix will win anything he gets nominated for, including winning his first Oscar. Adam Driver was wonderful in Marriage Story but he doesn't stand a chance against Phoenix. I'm a lit4tle surprised there's no mention of Renee Zellweger in Judy, which I saw yesterday. She is easily my forerunner for Best Actress. The movie is not getting great reviews but Zellweger is brilliant. I don't see it happening in a million years, but I would love to see Taron Egerton win for Rocketman



The trick is not minding
Bombshell ?? Is that not the perfect Me Too/SJW selection?.. If that's the case, look for it at the Oscars.
I mean, it’s based off of actual events so it isn’t like it’s shoehorned in there.
It is getting good reviews after all



I mean, it’s based off of actual events so it isn’t like it’s shoehorned in there.
It is getting good reviews after all
Rotten Tomatoes has it at 66%, IMDB about the same-- audience and critics both. Still, it won't be surprising if the flick gets shoehorned into the Oscar nominations.

My point is that the story was chosen because of it's PC/SJ value, and because of that it wasn't loved. RTs "Critics consensus" puts it this way:

"Bombshell benefits from a terrific cast and a worthy subject, but its impact is muffled by a frustrating inability to go deeper than the sensationalistic surface."

Well, at least it was a worthy subject...

~Doc



The trick is not minding
I mean, it’s based off of actual events so it isn’t like it’s shoehorned in there.
It is getting good reviews after all
Rotten Tomatoes has it at 66%, IMDB about the same-- audience and critics both. Still, it won't be surprising if the flick gets shoehorned into the Oscar nominations.

My point is that the story was chosen because of it's PC/SJ value, and because of that it wasn't loved. RTs "Critics consensus" puts it this way:

"Bombshell benefits from a terrific cast and a worthy subject, but its impact is muffled by a frustrating inability to go deeper than the sensationalistic surface."

Well, at least it was a worthy subject...

~Doc
You don’t think it was a worthy subject? And reviews are subjective, anyways. I don’t rely on any review to make my decision for me.
Regardless, PC/SJ have been around for a long time in one form or another. The old days they were social conscious movies.
PC/SJ just got added on pejoratively, as if it’s a bad thing.
I doubt it’ll get an Oscar nom for BP, but the 3 main actresses all probably will. And that seems to be the consensus on the film.
I’m ok with that, but I reserve final judgement on it until I’ve seen it.