2023 Hollywood Guild Awards

The Oscar nominations are due Tuesday January 24th, in two weeks. This thread is for the major technical Hollywood guild nominees for the year. I will come back and update the nominees and winners as each is announced. Many of these often correspond fairly closely with the Academy Award nominations. The Screen Actor's Guild (SAG) Awards already have their own thread.


The Producer’s Guild of America (PGA) Awards
Outstanding Theatrical Motion Picture
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
The Whale

Outstanding Animated Motion Picture
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinnochio
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Minions: The Rise of Gru
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Turning Red



The Director’s Guild of America (DGA) Awards
Theatrical Feature Film
Todd Field, Tár
Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Steven Spielberg, The Fablemans

First-Time Feature Film
Alice Diop, Saint Omer
Audrey Diwan, Happening
John Patton Ford, Emily the Criminal
Antoneta Alamat Kusijanović, Murina
Charlotte Wells, Aftersun



The Writer’s Guild of America (WGA) Awards
Original Screenplay
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
The Menu
Nope
Tár

Adapted Screenplay
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
She Said
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking


The American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) Awards
Feature Film
Bardo: False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
The Batman
Elvis
Empire of Light
Top Gun: Maverick


The American Cinema Editors (ACE) Awards
Feature Film, Drama
All Quiet on the Western Front
Elvis
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
The Woman King

Feature Film, Comedy
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
The Menu
Triangle of Sadness

Animated Feature Film
The Bad Guys
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Turning Red

__________________
"Film is a disease. When it infects your bloodstream it takes over as the number one hormone. It bosses the enzymes, directs the pineal gland, plays Iago to your psyche. As with heroin, the antidote to Film is more Film." - Frank Capra

The DGA Award is historically the best predictor of who will win the corresponding Oscar. But while their winners match up much more often than not their nominees usually differ. There are usually one or two names different between the organizations, even though virtually any member of the Academy's Director's Branch doing the Oscar nominating is also a member of the DGA and nominating there, too. There is a much larger membership in the DGA as that includes directors of television, documentary, music videos, and commercials as well as feature films. The last time the DGA and Oscar nominees mirrored each other perfectly was 2009 (Kathryn Bigelow's year for The Hurt Locker).

This year I think Spielberg, McDonagh, and The Daniels are pretty well shoo-ins for Oscar noms. This is Spielberg's thirteenth DGA nomination: Jaws, Close Encounters of the Third Kind, Raiders of the Lost Ark, E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial, The Color Purple, Empire of the Sun, Schindler's List, Amistad, Saving Private Ryan, Munich, Lincoln, West Side Story, and now The Fablemans. That adds to his own record. Scorsese has the second-most with ten noms. Spielberg won the DGA for Schindler's List, Saving Private Ryan, and The Color Purple and those three wins are the record (fourteen different directors have a pair of wins). This is McDonagh's second DGA nom (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) and he has never had a directing nom at the Oscars (a pair of screenplay nods for Three Billboards and In Bruges).

The Two Daniels, Todd Field, and Joseph Kosinski are first time DGA nominees and none have Oscar nods for directing, though Field has two nominations for his screenplays (In the Bedroom and Little Children).

If I have Field and Kosinksi on the bubble I think the Academy may replace them with Baz Luhrmann (Elvis) who they have snubbed in the past, two-time winner Alejandro González Iñárritu (Bardo), previous winner James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water), previous winner Damien Chazelle (Babylon), previous winner Sam Mendes (Empire of Light), or a dark horse like Sarah Polley (Women Talking).

The Producers Guild of America (PGA) Award nominees were announced this afternoon, ten titles for their equivalent of Oscar's Best Picture. The top post has been edited to include them. The WGA and ACE nominees will be announced in a couple weeks, in the days following the Oscar noms.

Last year eight of the ten PGA nominees matched the Oscar's list. The differences were the PGA liked Being the Ricardos and Tick...Tick...Boom! while the Academy went with Drive My Car and Nightmare Alley. CODA won both.

Surprised that The Whale and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever were nominated for PGA. I thought Women Talking and The Woman King would have gotten nominated instead.

Why is Top Gun getting so much love? It’s even predicted to get a BP Oscar nom.

I haven’t seen Avatar or Top Gun sequels, but surely there’s better options out there.

Top Gun: Maverick was certainly an enjoyable blockbuster, but I suspect its awards season prominence is a combo of a weak year and it getting credit from the industry for really putting some butts back into theater seats, post the height of COVID.

What 10 films do you think will get nominated for best picture at the Oscars?

I think these PGA nominees will get a best picture nomination:

• Avatar: The Way of Water
• The Banshees of Inisherin
• Elvis
• Everything Everywhere All At Once
• The Fabelmans
• Tár
• Top Gun: Maverick

I'm predicting All Quiet on the Western Front, The Woman King, and Women Talking to also get nominated, although Aftersun, Babylon, Glass Onion, She Said, Till, or The Whale could potentially get in instead.

Almost nailed it! Don't think many saw Triangle of Sadness coming in Picture and Director. Honestly I would have thought The Menu had a better shot. There's always at least one big surprise.


The WGA Award nominees will be announced shortly.

Once again there was only one difference between the DGA Award and Oscar for Best Director nominees. Joseph Kosinski (Top Gun: Maverick) was replaced by Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness) by the Academy. If anyone but Kosinski wins the DGA they automatically have incredible odds of winning the Oscar.

The early trend would seem to point to Spielberg to win his fourth DGA Award and third Academy Award.

The Writers Guild of America nominees have been added to the top post. The American Cinema Editors (ACE) reveal their nominees tomorrow next week, February 1st.

Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert win the DGA, meaning they will almost certainly win best director.

The Daniels did indeed win the DGA Award last night, making them the prohibitive favorites in the Oscar race. They join Robert Wise & Jerome Robbins (West Side Story) and Joel & Ethan Coen (No Country for Old Men) as the only directorial pairs to win this award.

And for all of us fans of Aftersun, Charlotte Wells did win the DGA for First-Time Film Director. This is only the eighth year the Directors Guild of America has given out this award. The other winners so far were Alex Garland (Ex Machina), Garth Davis (Lion), Jordan Peele (Get Out), Bo Burnham (Eighth Grade), Alma Har'el (Honey Boy), Darius Marder (Sound of Metal), and Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Lost Daughter).

In addition to the prizes it won at the Screen Actors Guild Awards on Sunday, Everything Everywhere All at Once also won the top honor at the Producers Guild of America (PGA) Awards on Saturday night. Del Toro's Pinocchio won Animated Feature.

What does the PGA win mean for handicapping Oscar's Best Picture? The PGA Award is younger than some of the other guilds. They started bestowing their trophies for the 1989 season (Driving Miss Daisy won their first award). In the thirty-three years of the PGA Award they have missed matching the Academy's Best Picture ten times. That is 70% accuracy. Not bad, but nothing compared to the DGA's rather peerless 90+%. Seven of the ten discrepancies have come in the 21st Century including four in the 2000s, three of them in a row with The Aviator/Million Dollar Baby, Brokeback Mountain/Crash, and Little Miss Sunshine/The Departed. After those odd three misses in a row the two awards had their longest streak of matching, eight years (2007-2014). There were three misses in the 2010s with The Big Short/Spotlight, La La Land/Moonlight, and the most recent was 1917/Parasite.

While not infallible, the PGA win for Everything Everywhere All at Once does give it some very good momentum heading into the Academy Awards. It is definitely shaping up to be the favorite. Now the question is will it retain that momentum or will we have a surprise come Oscar night?

The three big remaining guilds had their awards on Sunday. The Writers Guild of America (WGA) gave their top awards to Sarah Polley (Women Talking) for Best Adapted Screenplay and to The Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once) for Best Original Screenplay. The American Society of Cinematographers gave their big award to Mandy Walker for Elvis. And the American Cinema Editors (ACE) gave their top awards ("The Eddie") to Top Gun: Maverick for Feature Film Drama (Eddie Hamilton), Everything Everywhere All at Once for Feature Film Comedy (Paul Rogers), and Guillermo del Toro's Pinnochio for Animated Feature (Holly Klein & Ken Schretzmann).