If I had to guesstimate I’d say about a quarter of
Don’t Look Up’s support came from voters who truly grooved to it (or were in it, as it had such a large cast), another quarter from those who are loyal fans of Adam McKay no matter what, and about half or more of the support came directly in the face of the backlash and supposed controversies in the media. It got kicked enough that voters became so either protective or defiant that it got a couple of high-profile nominations for Best Picture and here for Original Screenplay. This is McKay’s third nomination as a writer. His Dick Chaney piece
Vice got a nod as an Original Screenplay and he won Adapted for
The Big Short. The inconsistent tone of
Don’t Look Up hurts it much more than any polemic diatribes ever could. No way the sentiment that got it a nomination propels it to a win, but McKay should feel loved and protected.
Zach Baylin, who before this project worked as a set dresser and prop master, sees his very first screen writing credit
King Richard make him an Oscar nominee. Now he’s working on
Creed III. Will Smith is very likely riding this movie to an Oscar win but it has no realistic chance here.
The Worst Person in the World was a surprise nominee here, but it would take an even bigger surprise for it to actually win. Only a small number of scripts from foreign language projects have been winners for their screenplay. In the 21st Century
Parasite, Roma, and
Talk to Her all won but before that you have to go back to the likes of
Divorce Italian Style, Claude Lalouche’s
A Man and a Woman,
The Red Balloon (which famously has no dialogue), and the very first was the Swiss-German production of
Marie-Louise (1945). Very unlikely
The Worst Person joins them, though the nomination truly was a nice reward.
Which makes it a two-horse race.
Licorice Pizza is Paul Thomas Anderson’s fifth writing nomination, so far without a win. The others were the scripts for
Boogie Nights (
Good Will Hunting won),
Magnolia (
American Beauty won),
There Will Be Blood (
No Country for Old Men won), and
Inherent Vice (
The Imitation Game won). He will almost surely win one of these days, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see him win as a writer before he wins as a director. But I don’t know if
Licorice Pizza is the one?
Belfast’s nomination here set a record for Kenneth Branagh. It makes the SEVENTH different category he has been nominated in. Nobody in the history of the Oscars has pulled that off before. Those categories are Best Director (
Henry V and
Belfast), Best Actor (
Henry V), Best Short Film, Live Action (“Swan Song”, a Chekov one-act starring John Gielgud), Adapted Screenplay (
Hamlet), Supporting Actor (
My Week with Marilyn), Best Picture (as producer on
Belfast), and Original Screenplay (
Belfast). Kenneth never won any of those previous and diverse nominations. He is probably not going to upset Jane Campion for Director nor will
Belfast get Picture so the nicest way to honor both his career and the personal film is right here. Branagh was twenty-nine when he got those
Henry V noms. He is sixty-one now. It may be time.